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California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

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Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#141
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're not crazy. It was very clear from the way the situation was handled even a month ago that CA and NY governors are not wasting time with this good crisis, and are using it for their political gain. The rampant fear mongering was used to overblow the severity of the situation and sell the idea of locking down hard before it's too late, completely disregarding the economy fallout, all the while projecting the ima…

I know it's folly but I'm trying to follow the logic here. Newsom and Cuomo, who won their offices fairly easily in their respective elections, seized on a plan to drastically hurt the economies of their respective states. Because, being the ones who took charge of the situation, that would gain some intangible leadership points that would increase their chances of winning their next elections despite the inevitable…

You knew it was folly...Some people want rationalize rather than observe.

Our government's situation looks an awful lot like ignorance and error, not malice.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#142
post #67

A real plan would look like this https://imgur.com/spemOeG specifying the levels of restrictions and the metrics we will use to track the metrics. This allows people to understand what to expect the best possible. We already have huge uncertainty, we don't need to add uncertainty of government response on top of uncertainty of the virus. I think there is huge room to debate the numbers and what goes in what level, bu…

I don't really think you fully appreciate what how your "real plan" or your accompanying nitpicks would be received by the average citizen. The biggest pitfall, as has already been pointed out by another reply, is that it creates concrete expectations that the government will be held accountable for.

Secondly, most of your nitpicks are great if you want to nerd out over the details of the epidemic, but most people are not going to find small details like static versus dynamic surge capacity or suppression versus mitigation useful at all or relevant to them at all.

A sprinkling of Dunning-Kruger here..

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In all sincerity, New York wasn’t Wuhan either. If I were any any other state, I’d absolutely limit travel from NY and screen them.

Really? New York current has quite a few times the casualties of all of China (10834 vs 3341) with a small population than Wuhan and the casualties haven't stopped there. New York by itself has one of the high casualty levels in the world by any measure.

I suppose I worded it wrong. What I meant was, you might not be New York now, but you could be.

New York didn’t think they’d top Wuhan.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#144
post #30

This entire plan is based on models that do not align with what we are seeing. The graph on slide two[1] of the official CA govt plan shows hospitalizations With Intervention rising exponentially, exceeding our hospital capacity in early June. The actual new infection data shows that the rate of new infections has been decreasing since at least 4/4 [2], meaning that the graph of active hospitalizations should be a be…

the dotted line is what we would expect if the intervention is removed as of today. the red dots are actual hospitalizations as of right now. the blue line was the predicted line for hospitalizations... she mentions that we are doing better than the prediction as of right now. it was not altogether that clear but in the context of the press briefing it's more clear.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? New York current has quite a few times the casualties of all of China (10834 vs 3341) with a small population than Wuhan and the casualties haven't stopped there. New York by itself has one of the high casualty levels in the world by any measure.

New York started their business closures and stay at home orders 2 weeks after Seattle and California closed down. That’s why they ended up with so many more cases and deaths than the former two.

New York on lockdown is also busier then Seattle on a regular day.

Have you seen any of the photos of the packed subway trains, a week and a half into the lockdown? Seattle doesn't see that sort of thing even in rush hour.

Likewise, if you live in a highrise in New York, you're going to be taking the elevator to go get groceries. Usually with other people...

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#146
post #67

A real plan would look like this https://imgur.com/spemOeG specifying the levels of restrictions and the metrics we will use to track the metrics. This allows people to understand what to expect the best possible. We already have huge uncertainty, we don't need to add uncertainty of government response on top of uncertainty of the virus. I think there is huge room to debate the numbers and what goes in what level, bu…

[deleted]

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#147
post #67

A real plan would look like this https://imgur.com/spemOeG specifying the levels of restrictions and the metrics we will use to track the metrics. This allows people to understand what to expect the best possible. We already have huge uncertainty, we don't need to add uncertainty of government response on top of uncertainty of the virus. I think there is huge room to debate the numbers and what goes in what level, bu…

The reason why your solution is not good is because it pigeon holes the government into expectations. The government doesn't have a crystal ball as to how this all plays out, they need to have the flexibility to change how they want to respond to each situation without having to defend an ultimatum. For example, even in your own example here are several situations you didn't account: -- The availability of tests for…

> I think Governor Cuomo said something very interesting the other day, to paraphrase, when he was asked whether he should've started stay at home earlier and if that would've saved lives. Of course it would have, but the interviewer is not taking into account compliance and public sentiment.

I'm living on the West Coast, but the way I remember the news from NY was that De Blasio wouldn't shutdown the city because he said he lacked the authority; he passed the buck to Cuomo to issue shutdown orders. Cuomo said that it was the Federal governments responsibility to organize and order shutdowns, passing the buck to Trump while implicitly admitting it was something that needed to be done. Trump in turn said that it was the states' responsibility. Importantly, De Blasio and Cuomo knew the stance of the person they were passing the buck, which means they knew nothing would be done. Equally as importantly, they both ended up later ordering measures they previously refused, and otherwise contradicting their earlier selves.

Meanwhile, over here on the West Coast, we saw real leadership--making hard decisions in a moment of public paralysis.[1] Cuomo and De Blasio seem to be smart administrators, at least smart enough to recognize and follow expert, consensus opinion smacking them in the face. But they clearly suck as leaders.

I'm still astonished how quick we all are to retcon recent history. (And I don't mean to imply that you are doing that, though I am responding to a sentiment that seems to defend Cuomo.) Similar revisionism happened after 9/11 and the Great Recession, where people ended up judging people and events according to narratives and sentiment that arose weeks and even days subsequent, despite obvious contradictions with then recently reported facts.

[1] Not just politicians. Noteworthy (and apropos HN) is how Seattle Flu Study researchers stuck their necks out and bent the law rather than twiddle their thumbs while the CDC fumbled.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#148

They should quit padding the numbers if they're so concerned about minimizing fatalities. A man gets hit by a bus and tests positive for Coronavirus, I don't care what the science has to say about it, that is not a Coronavirus death and you can't change my mind.

One pathological example doesn't make a trend.

Not really one example:

N.Y.C. Death Toll Soars Past 10,000 in Revised Virus Count The city has added more than 3,700 additional people who were presumed to have died of the coronavirus but had never tested positive.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronav...

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#149
post #67

A real plan would look like this https://imgur.com/spemOeG specifying the levels of restrictions and the metrics we will use to track the metrics. This allows people to understand what to expect the best possible. We already have huge uncertainty, we don't need to add uncertainty of government response on top of uncertainty of the virus. I think there is huge room to debate the numbers and what goes in what level, bu…

> this is what a real roadmap looks like

Sorry, but what's your expertise in what real public health plans look like? And why are you criticizing a slide deck as if it were a carefully considered public health plan?

If you want to talk about what you'd like to see, great. We all want things, and communications can always be better. But I don't understand why you're treating your preferences as overriding, especially when you don't even know who the author is. (Hint: it's not a he.)

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#150
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, looking at the new cases curve on your covid-19.direct page. As presented, you can't really see what the green curve is doing. If you remove the black, total curve, the green new case curve is visible but it seems to be going up and down fairly inconclusively. Until 4/1, it looks like exponential growth. After that, it goes down and then up. Sure, the optimistic view is it's plateaued or going downward and I hope…

"If you remove the black, total curve, the green new case curve is visible but it seems to be going up and down fairly inconclusively." The best fit line of new cases after 4/4 is a linear function with a definitively negative slope. It is conclusively not a function that contributes to the upward, concave blue line on the state's graph.

Who cares what the best fit is. There is simply not enough data. You're talking twelves data points with considerable variation. Using statistic doesn't turn muddy and ambiguous data into a clear signal magically.
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