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Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

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Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#91

Post by DoreenMichele »

bayesian_horse wrote: post #68
DoreenMichele wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A former registered nurse once told me that heart problems typically start as lung problems. Heart stress isn't at all unusual with lung distress. The two systems very much work together. I have serious lung problems and I used to have arhythmia. I don't have arhythmia anymore. I'm generally healthier than I used to be. I don't know why the death rate on ventilators is so high. I'm not inclined to do a lot of specula…

That line about lung problems being the primary cause for heart problems got to be wrong, without context...

I've already given the source: it was the opinion of a medical professional I was friends with.

You can readily Google the idea and come up with multiple articles indicating that lung problems can cause heart problems and heart problems can cause lung problems. As I stated above, the heart and lungs work closely together, so it's not uncommon to have problems with both at the same time.

(Please kindly don't try to tell me that's not what I said. It's 3am here and these are comments on a forum, not a PhD thesis. I'm telling you it means the same thing to me. I've given my clarification as best I can and I didn't say "primarily," I said typically, which really doesn't sound the same to me. Given how the heart and lungs work, I think my friend was likely correct that the direction of cause and effect typically starts with the lungs and goes to the heart from there, but not always, of course.)

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#92

Post by bayesian_horse »

Lewton wrote: post #79
bayesian_horse wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Currently the R0 in Germany has gone below 1, according to some models. I don't think the measures will be softened before May, but according to the authorities, the ICU capacity will not be overburdened. Stressed to the maximum, yes, but not (or not much) over capacity. Another issue is that with an R0 this low there will be a much lower rate of immunity. Which in turn means the restrictions can't be lifted because…

> I don't think the measures will be softened before May, but according to the authorities, the ICU capacity will not be overburdened. Stressed to the maximum, yes, but not (or not much) over capacity. Yes, sounds like Germany nailed it > Another issue is that with an R0 this low there will be a much lower rate of immunity. Which in turn means the restrictions can't be lifted because then the whole mess starts up aga…

There will be a question of whether or not a slightly higher R0 would be beneficial.

It's clear that we can't hold this up until the vaccines are ready. The antibody studies will be crucial to determine how much immunity is there.

Ideally we would take back the restrictions when immunity has broadened enough. But that might take too long. I don't think this kind of shut down is sustainable for another two months.

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#93

Post by bayesian_horse »

iforgotpassword wrote: post #85
k__ wrote: post #81

People from other countries are always hating "just wait, we laughed too, but then things got worse!" But I have the feeling, in Germany we are doing pretty good for ourselves. I don't think this will be over soon, but when I look at our numbers, I just can't see it getting much worse, let alone as bad as our neighbors or the US has it...

We reacted late, but not as late as for example Italy. And at least where I live, many people tried to reduce social contacts. Not all obviously, but streets got emptier. But probably the most relevant thing to do was closing schools and especially kindergartens. It may just work out fine, I think it also depends on whether people get their shit together during the Easter weekend regarding family visits. Good weather…

We acted later than Italy, in temporal terms. Maybe earlier in terms of the infection curve.

At some point there wasn't anything to act on. Cases where far and few between and have been individually isolated for a time. There was no way to find community spread because there was no way to identify other cases without testing millions. And the official incidence rate is still about one in a thousand people.

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#94

Post by _ph_ »

chvid wrote: post #83
_ph_ wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I strongly disagree with the statement, that we have "too few sick" here in Germany. With the lockdown, we managed to just keep the health system from being completely overloaded in the most infected regions. But that already at the price of postponing non-urgent medical procedures. So yes, there are a few free beds in hospitals still, but we might still need them. What is not accounted for is, that supplies (masks..…

It is the same "problem" here in Denmark; massive lockdown and overcapacity for COVID19 treatment. The current level of lockdown is unmaintainable as this virus is probably going to be here for a year or two. However it is very hard for our politicians to say: It is too expensive to save these lives - other lives are cheaper to save. In a way the media coverage has been so effective that people actually do not want t…

If enough people stay careful, it is easier to lift the restrictions. As the grocery stores stayed open during the lockdown, we can see that it is reasonable safe to interact with other people, if the minimum distances are obeyed and proper hygene is used. After this model, most other shops should be allowed to open again as long as people keep their distances. Not sure what to do about the previously crowded shopping streets in the city centers. Perhaps there, only half of the shops should be allowed to open on alternating days.

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#95

Post by mrighele »

Lewton wrote: post #63
usr1106 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, you really need to follow death rates. According to some claims up to 70% of corona infections could not result in observable symptoms. However, if you take just dying people, it would not come as a surprise that they are so weak that the additional infection can produce visible symptoms and their death is attributed to COVID. In some places in Lombardy (Italy) the death rate is clearly higher. You didn't need t…

> According to some claims up to 70% of corona infections could not result in observable symptoms. This is a ridiculous claim Any place that has done random sampling is reporting a very low asymptomatic rate

Not ridiculous. After the first town in north east Italy was put in quarantine (Vo Euganeo) the local governor decided to test the whole town for Coronavirus (a few thousand people). More than half of the infected people where without symptoms.

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#96

Post by tullatulla »

Looks like the peak ICU occupation in Germany has clearly passed:

11/04: 2088, 76% on ventilators 10/04(?): 2453, 76% -"-

04/04: 2680, 83% -"- 03/04: 2421, 83% -"- 02/04: 2139, 83% -"- 01/04: 1876, 82% -"-

Can't find data for in between 04/04 and 10/04, since DIVI stopped publishing daily reports apparently, but must have peaked in between.

https://www.intensivregister.de/#/intensivregister https://www.divi.de/images/Dokumente/DIVI-IntensivRegister_T...

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#97

Post by DoreenMichele »

toyg wrote: post #82
DoreenMichele wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for that. I have really serious lung problems and spent years homeless. While homeless, I used to just stand outside my tent and cough up massive amounts of fluid and gunk so I could breathe when I laid down to sleep. Based on my experiences with my incurable lung disorder, I'm fairly confident we could be doing more with non-invasive techniques even at fairly advanced stages.

I understand your perspective but you’re relying on anecdata, not data.

FWIW, my anecdata includes a 32 year old son with the same diagnosis who still lives with me and our diagnosis (for a congenital condition) dates to May-June 2001, nearly 19 years ago.

But, yes, first-hand personal experience and anecdata are roughly synonymous, though the first one lacks the generally dismissive implications of the second.

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#98

Post by bayesian_horse »

DoreenMichele wrote: post #91
bayesian_horse wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That line about lung problems being the primary cause for heart problems got to be wrong, without context...

I've already given the source: it was the opinion of a medical professional I was friends with. You can readily Google the idea and come up with multiple articles indicating that lung problems can cause heart problems and heart problems can cause lung problems. As I stated above, the heart and lungs work closely together, so it's not uncommon to have problems with both at the same time. (Please kindly don't try to te…

For me, "typically" does mean a majority of cases.

I'm "only" a Veterinarian, so I'm not quite current in the distribution of how this works in Humans, but from my understanding it's normally the heart that affects the lungs, not the other way around.

That statement might be true inside a specific context, like infections, maybe.

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#99

Post by k__ »

lnsru wrote: post #86
k__ wrote: post #81

People from other countries are always hating "just wait, we laughed too, but then things got worse!" But I have the feeling, in Germany we are doing pretty good for ourselves. I don't think this will be over soon, but when I look at our numbers, I just can't see it getting much worse, let alone as bad as our neighbors or the US has it...

Wait few days after Eastern celebration, parks in Munich are full, people around houses are celebrating in packs. Even deep in woods 30 miles away isn’t that empty as it was few days ago. 4000+ new cases alone yesterday. So another 200 intensive care beds needed. I am really worried about all this careless “we are doing well”.

The problem are the people who don't follow the rules, not the ones who say we're doing well.

I think we're doing well and still don't meet friends or go out often.

Re: Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany

#100

Post by DoreenMichele »

bayesian_horse wrote: post #98
DoreenMichele wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've already given the source: it was the opinion of a medical professional I was friends with. You can readily Google the idea and come up with multiple articles indicating that lung problems can cause heart problems and heart problems can cause lung problems. As I stated above, the heart and lungs work closely together, so it's not uncommon to have problems with both at the same time. (Please kindly don't try to te…

For me, "typically" does mean a majority of cases. I'm "only" a Veterinarian, so I'm not quite current in the distribution of how this works in Humans, but from my understanding it's normally the heart that affects the lungs, not the other way around. That statement might be true inside a specific context, like infections, maybe.

To me, primarily suggests something like "we have hard data showing that 90 percent of cases absolutely start with the lungs" and typically is more like "I have professional experience and years of observation without collecting hard data suggests that this is true at least 51% of the time."

So they don't parse the same for me, though I can see them parsing the same for someone else.

The lungs serve as a filter for everything you breath in. Modern air is generally pretty polluted. I imagine that everyone's lungs get de facto pretty gunked up these days, like the filter on a home AC that never gets changed and then we wonder when other pieces of the system start showing strain.

I imagine it frequently goes unrecognized as starting in the lungs, but I think it probably does. Please note that "starting" there also doesn't preclude other contributing causes, which is another reason I object to the word primarily. Saying "First X happens and then there tends to be a cascade effect from there" absolutely isn't the same as saying "X happens and X is the entire cause of the problem with zero other factors contributing to it."

Edit: I will add that I believe it starts with the lungs in part because reading up on altitude sickness did wonders for my understanding of my condition which has substantial gut involvement. When there is a defect in air quality, it rapidly starts impacting other systems, like the gut, liver and kidneys, and there are huge knock on effects that can be outright deadly.

Before reading up on altitude sickness, I had this hand wavy idea that the gut and lung issues are related, but afterwards I had a clear and definable connection and that connection is how the body processes blood gasses. So, obviously, the connection is the circulatory system, which is powered by the heart.

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