Earlier quoted context omitted.
How many people on a single $1200 check and unemployment will go out and buy a car, a house, a washing machine or visit a Disney park?
In Q1 pick-up sales were up 2%. Granted only half of the quarter was in coronavirus pandemic but it still shows people are willing to spend dollars.
A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal
181–190 of 322 posts
Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal
#182How can they say nobody knew? 170+ CEO’s of major corporations resigned right before the outbreak. Something is fishy with the current narrative.
Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal
#183Earlier quoted context omitted.
The US spends $7 for seniors for every $1 they spend on minors.[0] [0] https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/1_how_m...
To be fair, they’ve paid a bit more into the system at that point in order to gain those benefits.
Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal
#184Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I hope the pandemic lasts long enough to make some of these things permanent. PEOPLE ARE DYING. This is A DISASTER. Have some fucking compassion, good grief.
People die every day. Malnutrition has killed more people this year than covid. Where's your perpetual handwringing for those in impoverished far off countries? Or are you just emotional because it's YOUR people dying right now? Keep your myopic melodrama to yourself.
Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal
#185Earlier quoted context omitted.
To be fair, they’ve paid a bit more into the system at that point in order to gain those benefits.
Seeing as that minors can't work that's trivially true. The question is, if we underinvest into the next generation will they be able to invest into themselves to the same degree in the future?
There’s a $2,000 per child federal tax credit. That’s 25% of that number just off the bat.
Here’s a link which claims we spend $12,000 per child in 2005 just on education. [1]
Based on what we spend on education, which apparently is the second highest in the world... I have a hard time concluding we are under-investing.
Keep in mind the majority of spending on elderly is social security, which is a mandatory retirement program that every worker paid into.
Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal
#186The points made are fine insofar as they go. At the same time, the current economic situation is, very literally, unprecedented. It has aspects of a war, a natural disaster and a secular recession. Economists should try to estimate its effects, but in this case their predictions need to be taken with an extra large grain of salt.
How is it very literally unprecedented? Spanish flu had much deadlier properties, "work from home" wasn't even possible, there were no antibiotics and almost none of the modern med tech, yet there is no mention of a "1919 economic collapse". Death toll in the US was So I'd say it looks very much "precedented", and during the last precedent the situation was much much worse, and the world moved on just fine for anothe…
That being said, my point is that economic predictions are especially difficult given that we’ve never seen this before.
For comparison, consider the many economists who at the time expected the depression to reappear after the demobilization following WWII. Despite their good intentions and good data, they too were dealing with a unique situation, and they turned out to be very wrong.
Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal
#187The points made are fine insofar as they go. At the same time, the current economic situation is, very literally, unprecedented. It has aspects of a war, a natural disaster and a secular recession. Economists should try to estimate its effects, but in this case their predictions need to be taken with an extra large grain of salt.
How is it very literally unprecedented? Spanish flu had much deadlier properties, "work from home" wasn't even possible, there were no antibiotics and almost none of the modern med tech, yet there is no mention of a "1919 economic collapse". Death toll in the US was So I'd say it looks very much "precedented", and during the last precedent the situation was much much worse, and the world moved on just fine for anothe…
Yes, life will go on. But it's worth trying to minimize the misery in the meantime.
Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal
#188Earlier quoted context omitted.
Seeing as that minors can't work that's trivially true. The question is, if we underinvest into the next generation will they be able to invest into themselves to the same degree in the future?
Your link claims we spend ~$8,000 per child. There’s a $2,000 per child federal tax credit. That’s 25% of that number just off the bat. Here’s a link which claims we spend $12,000 per child in 2005 just on education. [1] Based on what we spend on education, which apparently is the second highest in the world... I have a hard time concluding we are under-investing. Keep in mind the majority of spending on elderly is s…
Even if that's the case, I'm not sure most Americans are getting the education they need. Maybe that takes even more money, maybe that takes more effective investment of that money, maybe it takes something else.
The economic outlook of my generation, the millenials, nearly all hard at work already, isn't looking so hot, and I fear that the next generation's chances look more grim.
Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal
#189It seems people don't realize how much $6T is and the effects of that kind of money being injected into the economy. Consider the 2008 housing bubble and financial crisis which was ultimately corrected with two stimulus packages totaling less than $2T...that money turned the economy around, put the economy into the longest bull market in history, resulting in a record stock market and corporate profits. Now its not t…
This was done through cooking the unemployment books ... That's patently false. BLS reports 6 different "unemployment rates" (1). The media has historically reported U-3. You can argue that U-6 is more meaningful in light of recent economic trends. But, no books have been cooked. 1 - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal
#190Earlier quoted context omitted.
How is it very literally unprecedented? Spanish flu had much deadlier properties, "work from home" wasn't even possible, there were no antibiotics and almost none of the modern med tech, yet there is no mention of a "1919 economic collapse". Death toll in the US was So I'd say it looks very much "precedented", and during the last precedent the situation was much much worse, and the world moved on just fine for anothe…
> How is it very literally unprecedented? What's unprecedented is the reaction... some might say over reaction.
For a pretty good example of this, look at Spain and the UK.