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A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

sloanreview.mit.edu

181–190 of 322 posts

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#181
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many people on a single $1200 check and unemployment will go out and buy a car, a house, a washing machine or visit a Disney park?

In Q1 pick-up sales were up 2%. Granted only half of the quarter was in coronavirus pandemic but it still shows people are willing to spend dollars.

People are still going need cars at the same rate they always have.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#183
post #178
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US spends $7 for seniors for every $1 they spend on minors.[0] [0] https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/1_how_m...

To be fair, they’ve paid a bit more into the system at that point in order to gain those benefits.

Seeing as that minors can't work that's trivially true. The question is, if we underinvest into the next generation will they be able to invest into themselves to the same degree in the future?

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I hope the pandemic lasts long enough to make some of these things permanent. PEOPLE ARE DYING. This is A DISASTER. Have some fucking compassion, good grief.

People die every day. Malnutrition has killed more people this year than covid. Where's your perpetual handwringing for those in impoverished far off countries? Or are you just emotional because it's YOUR people dying right now? Keep your myopic melodrama to yourself.

This is the most out of touch, bizzare, sad, and disgusting comment I have read yet regarding this pandemic. You should be ashamed of yourself.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#185
post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, they’ve paid a bit more into the system at that point in order to gain those benefits.

Seeing as that minors can't work that's trivially true. The question is, if we underinvest into the next generation will they be able to invest into themselves to the same degree in the future?

Your link claims we spend ~$8,000 per child.

There’s a $2,000 per child federal tax credit. That’s 25% of that number just off the bat.

Here’s a link which claims we spend $12,000 per child in 2005 just on education. [1]

Based on what we spend on education, which apparently is the second highest in the world... I have a hard time concluding we are under-investing.

Keep in mind the majority of spending on elderly is social security, which is a mandatory retirement program that every worker paid into.

[1] - https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator_cmd.asp

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#186
post #9

The points made are fine insofar as they go. At the same time, the current economic situation is, very literally, unprecedented. It has aspects of a war, a natural disaster and a secular recession. Economists should try to estimate its effects, but in this case their predictions need to be taken with an extra large grain of salt.

How is it very literally unprecedented? Spanish flu had much deadlier properties, "work from home" wasn't even possible, there were no antibiotics and almost none of the modern med tech, yet there is no mention of a "1919 economic collapse". Death toll in the US was So I'd say it looks very much "precedented", and during the last precedent the situation was much much worse, and the world moved on just fine for anothe…

I think you misunderstand me. I’m not claiming that a pandemic is unprecedented. I’m claiming that a pandemic in the post modern economy is unprecedented, as is a prophylactic shutdown of 1/3 of the economy.

That being said, my point is that economic predictions are especially difficult given that we’ve never seen this before.

For comparison, consider the many economists who at the time expected the depression to reappear after the demobilization following WWII. Despite their good intentions and good data, they too were dealing with a unique situation, and they turned out to be very wrong.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#187
post #9

The points made are fine insofar as they go. At the same time, the current economic situation is, very literally, unprecedented. It has aspects of a war, a natural disaster and a secular recession. Economists should try to estimate its effects, but in this case their predictions need to be taken with an extra large grain of salt.

How is it very literally unprecedented? Spanish flu had much deadlier properties, "work from home" wasn't even possible, there were no antibiotics and almost none of the modern med tech, yet there is no mention of a "1919 economic collapse". Death toll in the US was So I'd say it looks very much "precedented", and during the last precedent the situation was much much worse, and the world moved on just fine for anothe…

It's unprecedented in the sense that the world was so different during the Spanish Flu that it's far from clear what lessons can be taken from it.

Yes, life will go on. But it's worth trying to minimize the misery in the meantime.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#188
post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seeing as that minors can't work that's trivially true. The question is, if we underinvest into the next generation will they be able to invest into themselves to the same degree in the future?

Your link claims we spend ~$8,000 per child. There’s a $2,000 per child federal tax credit. That’s 25% of that number just off the bat. Here’s a link which claims we spend $12,000 per child in 2005 just on education. [1] Based on what we spend on education, which apparently is the second highest in the world... I have a hard time concluding we are under-investing. Keep in mind the majority of spending on elderly is s…

Not my link, different poster. I just chimed in because your comment was kind of silly.

Even if that's the case, I'm not sure most Americans are getting the education they need. Maybe that takes even more money, maybe that takes more effective investment of that money, maybe it takes something else.

The economic outlook of my generation, the millenials, nearly all hard at work already, isn't looking so hot, and I fear that the next generation's chances look more grim.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#189

It seems people don't realize how much $6T is and the effects of that kind of money being injected into the economy. Consider the 2008 housing bubble and financial crisis which was ultimately corrected with two stimulus packages totaling less than $2T...that money turned the economy around, put the economy into the longest bull market in history, resulting in a record stock market and corporate profits. Now its not t…

This was done through cooking the unemployment books ... That's patently false. BLS reports 6 different "unemployment rates" (1). The media has historically reported U-3. You can argue that U-6 is more meaningful in light of recent economic trends. But, no books have been cooked. 1 - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

For sake of argument: If U-3 is the one that everyone pays attention to does it really matter that much if the others exist?

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is it very literally unprecedented? Spanish flu had much deadlier properties, "work from home" wasn't even possible, there were no antibiotics and almost none of the modern med tech, yet there is no mention of a "1919 economic collapse". Death toll in the US was So I'd say it looks very much "precedented", and during the last precedent the situation was much much worse, and the world moved on just fine for anothe…

> How is it very literally unprecedented? What's unprecedented is the reaction... some might say over reaction.

The trouble with exponential growth is that if you wait to react, for fear of over-reaction, then it's too late.

For a pretty good example of this, look at Spain and the UK.

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