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The plans to reopen the economy are scary

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Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#91

Post by tom-thistime »

mattmanser wrote: post #48

Trump flip-flops within one briefing, let alone over a few days. He'll be saying America's got the bestest, most wonderful, mass-testing that he helped invent and he'd always said mass testing was the way to go within a week or two and everything else is fake news.

The political food fight is hogging bandwidth to the point that it's difficult to discuss how to restart the economy... or even how to get protective equipment to medical professionals.

We're all tempted to feed that, but please resist. Thank you.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#92

Post by siscia »

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #75
recursive wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The longer this goes on, the more traction this argument will gain.

People have been making this argument since before the lock down. But on the contrary to your prediction, the argument has seemed sillier and sillier the more we see the effects of the virus. Things are really freakin bad, and that's with a lockdown. I suspect that all but a very small minority will be able to see the sense in spending serious effort on mitigation for the foreseeable future. Even if people somehow ma…

I believe we seriously understimate how widespread is the virus.

Let not-so-at-risk people go around will also helps in not moving completely blond in this episode.

I know people that are sure to have caught it, didn't get tested, it pass away, and now are still locked down for the foreseeable future.

In Italy it was asked to several people to donate blood, all of them though to have never got the virus, turns out 60% of them already got it.

We need something more than just staying at home.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#93

Post by itgoon »

vturner wrote: post #74
frockington1 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my state (Ohio) at least, protest are starting to form on the legality and length of shutting down businesses. It's still only a handful of people but seems to be growing every day. There is a very slim chance the government can enact shut downs for long and still maintain authority

Where in Ohio is this? I'm not doubting, just like to read local news on it as I'm in Ohio too. I applaud DeWine for acting quickly, but I'm concerned that maybe for rural and small city locations the shut down was too much. I wonder if we are creating a cry wolf effect for non-metro areas. All the mass effects in my area are purely from the response. Of course, one may say, what if we hadn't a shut down; but, I thin…

https://www.nbc4i.com/community/health/coronavirus/dewine-ac...

Hope this helps.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#94

Post by sveng »

siscia wrote: post #40

For how much I understand the need to lower the curve and reduce the R0 of the infection, I start to see also another argument. We are basically pausing the life of younger people, indefinitely, to protect the elders. Again, since the quarantine started in my area I exist twice to buy groceries and that's all. So I understand the need and the importance of it. But should I really throw away on year of my life? Should…

It’s going to take a while to unpack your comment.

Until then, while you mention Ro, you might not know that some recent reports show it approaching 6 in some areas, not 2.x as thought by some over a month ago. With an Ro of 2.5 and a mean infection duration of 5 days, each person can cause infection of up to 244 cases in a month.

Also, since testing is not widely and reliably available in most countries, there is no way to loosen stay-at-home as a practical matter. Pervasive testing, quick contact tracing, isolation and quarantine are the only way forward.

And I’m not sure you are factoring in that Covid-19 positive people can be contagious before they show ANY symptoms.

So if you’re not concerned about older people or people with comorbidities generally, you might look around at the people you know and care about.

The other part of this is the impact on health care providers and first responders. They are getting infected and dying. The have more pressing issues than those you mention.

I find thinking about my community and taking certain matters of personal responsibility seriously helps me dwell less on myself.

Good luck...

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#95

Post by gnulinux »

siscia wrote: post #70
superkuh wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>We are basically pausing the life of younger people, indefinitely, to protect the elders. No, we're pausing the life of everyone to protect everyone. If you overload the hospital systems then everyone dies. If you pause and keep things barely managable then mostly only old people die.

I believe we both agree that locking down 20/30 years old people who still have to study, to meet people, to make experience, to find lovers and to find themselves is very different that lock down 70/80 years old people right? Then there is no doubts that the virus hit hardest the elders. Again, what I am saying is that younger people are hit by the lockdown much more than the elders while being the less concerned ab…

I'm 22 y.o. I simply do not understand this logic. Not being able to "find lovers" doesn't seem comparable to others dying. Yes, you will not be able to go to a bar and pick up girls/boys until things get better. These are not normal times, young people cannot act as if nothing is happening.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#96

Post by ztjio »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #43

I'm extremely skeptical of any analysis that discusses political non-viability at this point. If you asked any commentator 2 months ago whether it was politically viable to issue general stay at home orders, or to give every American a bunch of free money, or to pass a multi-trillion dollar stimulus bill, they would have told you no.

Giving every American a token cash handout is something Republicans have done before, it's hardly unbelievable if you actually have historical context. And by far most of that bill is corporate handouts. And the oversight has been fired. Everything about this aligns exactly with what you'd expect politically. It's a debacle.

Furthermore, while there has been a lot of shutdown, it's not equal across the board. Tons of places are taking half measures or no measures still, and the reasoning is entirely politically biased (business more important than people, etc.) It's clearly a case of more right leaning areas taking less cautious measures in favor of money.

In fact, I'd argue that everything that has happened, especially all the horribly obvious "mistakes" (read: intentional, corruption riddle, failures in the case of the federal administration) aligns with political viability as expected and confirms in retrospect the claims about viability.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#97

Post by standardUser »

IanDrake wrote: post #51
coliveira wrote: post #36

> Any feasible plan starts with massive testing, completely subsidized by the government. And yet just yesterday the president claimed we don’t need mass testing. This is something I've been saying from day 1: short of universal vaccination, the only way to get back to some form of normalcy is widespread testing of the population. Any government with some sense of reality would spend billions in testing, to avoid los…

Testing when? When you have symptoms? Too late. 330 million people testing weekly? Not possible. There is no realistic way to mass test everyone in a meaningful way.

"When you have symptoms? Too late."

The goal has never been to bring the transmission rate down to zero. If we could quickly test everyone at the onset of symptoms, then trace and test anyone likely to have been exposed to the virus by that symptomatic individual, we could bring the transmission rate down considerably. It's been done in other countries. Add in some other precautions, like automatic temperate checks, and the transmission rate can be lowered even further. Low enough? Dunno, but lockdowns can't last forever and our healthcare capacity is getting better by the day.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#98

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #75
recursive wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The longer this goes on, the more traction this argument will gain.

People have been making this argument since before the lock down. But on the contrary to your prediction, the argument has seemed sillier and sillier the more we see the effects of the virus. Things are really freakin bad, and that's with a lockdown. I suspect that all but a very small minority will be able to see the sense in spending serious effort on mitigation for the foreseeable future. Even if people somehow ma…

The argument against a few weeks of lockdown has seemed sillier and sillier. The situation's very bad, and it's worth spending serious effort to mitigate for the foreseeable future.

A ban on all social activity for years is far beyond "serious effort to mitigate". Millions of lives isn't worth a global dystopia.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#99

Post by agarden »

IanDrake wrote: post #51
coliveira wrote: post #36

> Any feasible plan starts with massive testing, completely subsidized by the government. And yet just yesterday the president claimed we don’t need mass testing. This is something I've been saying from day 1: short of universal vaccination, the only way to get back to some form of normalcy is widespread testing of the population. Any government with some sense of reality would spend billions in testing, to avoid los…

Testing when? When you have symptoms? Too late. 330 million people testing weekly? Not possible. There is no realistic way to mass test everyone in a meaningful way.

How much money would it take to make testing everyone a realistic possibility? How much money are we losing by just shutting everything down? Which one costs more?

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#100

Post by gnulinux »

siscia wrote: post #71
sosborn wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Young people will die not just from the virus, but from inadequate medical care caused by overloaded hospitals. It’s a shit situation for young adults, but sometimes life isn’t fair.

Sure, but younger have less need of medical care in general. Moreover, lock down all the elders and the ICU won't be so busy...

How do you lock down elders? Do you expect cops to look at people's IDs and check if they're 65+? This is ridiculous, the only practical way is to close places where people are inclined to gather such as bars/restaurants etc.
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