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The plans to reopen the economy are scary

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Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#71

Post by siscia »

sosborn wrote: post #67
siscia wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still much less than the elders and I am not sure what your comment means. Again, what I am saying is that the lockdown punish purple differently, the most punished are the least affected by the virus itself

Young people will die not just from the virus, but from inadequate medical care caused by overloaded hospitals. It’s a shit situation for young adults, but sometimes life isn’t fair.

Sure, but younger have less need of medical care in general.

Moreover, lock down all the elders and the ICU won't be so busy...

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#72

Post by Barrin92 »

>"The CAP and Harvard plans both foresee a digital pandemic surveillance state in which virtually every American downloads an app to their phone that geotracks their movements, so if they come into contact with anyone who later is found to have Covid-19, they can be alerted and a period of social quarantine can begin."

If this refers to the bluetooth supported apps I've seen developed by several institutions, does this not sound like a horrible idea? Let's say two people walk past each other on the street or stand close in a shop, as far as we know the risk of transmission is non-existent or extremely low. Are you just going to build a connected graph and then ping everyone if one person gets sick? You'd be pinging half the population of a dense city after one day.

Before putting these surveillance measures into place I'd like to know if they're not causing more harm and paranaoia then they help.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#73

Post by hebrox »

IanDrake wrote: post #51
coliveira wrote: post #36

> Any feasible plan starts with massive testing, completely subsidized by the government. And yet just yesterday the president claimed we don’t need mass testing. This is something I've been saying from day 1: short of universal vaccination, the only way to get back to some form of normalcy is widespread testing of the population. Any government with some sense of reality would spend billions in testing, to avoid los…

Testing when? When you have symptoms? Too late. 330 million people testing weekly? Not possible. There is no realistic way to mass test everyone in a meaningful way.

We can test people who care for the elderly, so that people in that age group can be protected.

We can tests a classroom weekly with one test. If it's positive, come back in three weeks, if not hear the parents cheer.

We can let companies be responsible for having people tested, if they want people in the office.

Once scaled up, we can have restaurants, bars even festivals be full of people, that the owner/organizers tested.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#74

Post by vturner »

frockington1 wrote: post #44
whatshisface wrote: post #37

He's saying that such-and-such is politically unviable, but that's what we were all saying about business shutdowns, too.

In my state (Ohio) at least, protest are starting to form on the legality and length of shutting down businesses. It's still only a handful of people but seems to be growing every day. There is a very slim chance the government can enact shut downs for long and still maintain authority

Where in Ohio is this? I'm not doubting, just like to read local news on it as I'm in Ohio too.

I applaud DeWine for acting quickly, but I'm concerned that maybe for rural and small city locations the shut down was too much. I wonder if we are creating a cry wolf effect for non-metro areas. All the mass effects in my area are purely from the response. Of course, one may say, what if we hadn't a shut down; but, I think that argument is going to be harder to make to the small businesses in a small city or rural area next time around.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#75

Post by asdfasgasdgasdg »

recursive wrote: post #63
siscia wrote: post #40

For how much I understand the need to lower the curve and reduce the R0 of the infection, I start to see also another argument. We are basically pausing the life of younger people, indefinitely, to protect the elders. Again, since the quarantine started in my area I exist twice to buy groceries and that's all. So I understand the need and the importance of it. But should I really throw away on year of my life? Should…

The longer this goes on, the more traction this argument will gain.

People have been making this argument since before the lock down. But on the contrary to your prediction, the argument has seemed sillier and sillier the more we see the effects of the virus. Things are really freakin bad, and that's with a lockdown. I suspect that all but a very small minority will be able to see the sense in spending serious effort on mitigation for the foreseeable future.

Even if people somehow manage to forget the horror and deaths of the past couple of weeks, a loosened lockdown and the inevitable spread of disease that will follow would quickly remind them.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#76

Post by fennecfoxen »

superkuh wrote: post #55
siscia wrote: post #40

For how much I understand the need to lower the curve and reduce the R0 of the infection, I start to see also another argument. We are basically pausing the life of younger people, indefinitely, to protect the elders. Again, since the quarantine started in my area I exist twice to buy groceries and that's all. So I understand the need and the importance of it. But should I really throw away on year of my life? Should…

>We are basically pausing the life of younger people, indefinitely, to protect the elders. No, we're pausing the life of everyone to protect everyone. If you overload the hospital systems then everyone dies. If you pause and keep things barely managable then mostly only old people die.

I've seen a coronavirus study that estimates 90% of the economic benefit of the lockdown accrues to those over 50. (Standard quality-adjusted-life-year rates.)

I've also seen pre-coronavirus studies noting the stark disparity in wealth between baby boomers and millennials at the same point in life. Fun times indeed!

I can afford this myself, but sparks will be flying.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#77

Post by jmt_ »

mymythisisthis wrote: post #66

Lots of business are converting to delivery. I think this is good. The warehouse style of store, prevalent since the 1960s is an outdated model. Schools are moving more courses online. Another major upgrade. The restaurant experience hasn't been rewarding for a long time. People should learn to cook at home. Experiment with fancier cuts of organic meat. Movie theaters have been terrible for decades. Sticky floors, to…

But isn't there something to be said about the kind of human experiences each of the "outdated" industries you mentioned provide? Namely schools, stores, going to movie theaters with friends, etc. People like seeing and being around other people. Some really, really don't, but most do. Moving the majority of activities indoors forever will have a negative impact on the psyche of the most people.

I agree that what most people buy is junk and that there is waste in the spaces you mentioned. But I'm not sure how "natural" is will feel for people to do all that isolated in their homes with a small amount of people indefinitely...

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#78

Post by siscia »

whatshisface wrote: post #69
siscia wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still at much lower rate than the elders. And what I am saying is that the lockdown punish different class of people very differently. And the most punished are the least affected by the virus itself.

That may be true, but if it is it would lead to "slightly less lockdown for some people," not "no lockdown for some people." But to your broader point, that nobody in government is considering the finer aspects of modeling and optimization: yes, I know, I don't expect anything more from them, and I think they're a bunch of nincompoops who only know how to write legal documents and strike deals. However if I saw any p…

Thanks for seeing my point! :)

And yes, less lockdown for someone is already something...

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#79

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

basch wrote: post #68
frockington1 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

States shouldn't need federal guidance and should prefer not to receive it. Without federal oversight, states and municipalities can tailor policy to their own area

I don't disagree, absent a well stocked National Stockpile, the Great States should build their own emergency reserve for Natural Disaster and Pandemic. Each state building its own stockpiles of some things that don't hit all areas equally could be wasteful. Keep close relationships with manufacturing firms who are prepared to be ready on short notice. This is as much a failure of planlessness as it is policy.

Although it should be noted that many states did have adequate stockpiles and haven't had their health care systems overloaded.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#80

Post by ska »

siscia wrote: post #53
wbl wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Young people die also when the health system is overloaded.

Still much less than the elders and I am not sure what your comment means. Again, what I am saying is that the lockdown punish purple differently, the most punished are the least affected by the virus itself

Do you not consider it a "punishment" to lose your family members an avoidable way? How about avoidably dying when you have a car accident because the ICU is overloaded?

Do you think people over 60 (or wherever the fatality rate spikes) existed in a self-isolated bubble staying home alone before now? Have you talked to any of them recently? The ones I know are having a rough time of it, at least as much as the younger people I know.

If locking down "just the elders" was a workable solution, what do you think it would really look like?

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