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The plans to reopen the economy are scary

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Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#61

Post by akhilcacharya »

eloff wrote: post #42
coliveira wrote: post #36

> Any feasible plan starts with massive testing, completely subsidized by the government. And yet just yesterday the president claimed we don’t need mass testing. This is something I've been saying from day 1: short of universal vaccination, the only way to get back to some form of normalcy is widespread testing of the population. Any government with some sense of reality would spend billions in testing, to avoid los…

If they had just closed their borders earlier could this have all been avoided? Seems like that would have been a lot cheaper. Definitely border restrictions plus testing seems to be effective in keeping it out, see Taiwan. Once you get enough local transmission going then it didn't matter anymore. Every western country reacted too slowly in this regard.

No because you cannot close borders off to American citizens. Even travel bans aren't terribly effective because you can pass through other countries or be infected in other countries.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#62

Post by elcritch »

coliveira wrote: post #36

> Any feasible plan starts with massive testing, completely subsidized by the government. And yet just yesterday the president claimed we don’t need mass testing. This is something I've been saying from day 1: short of universal vaccination, the only way to get back to some form of normalcy is widespread testing of the population. Any government with some sense of reality would spend billions in testing, to avoid los…

Not to mention few outside a small group of think tanks appear to be thinking about this. Perhaps if we had a President realistically planning for what to do next it’d be a bit easier. Regardless it’s not the President who figures these situations out, but the leaders at the CDC, FDA, and NIH. If they put out realistic plans and the press focuses on something more than the President, then we have a chance to plan for the next steps. For example it wasn’t the President who prevented the FDA from authorizing emergency testing back in January and February; it was all the FDA leadership.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#63

Post by recursive »

siscia wrote: post #40

For how much I understand the need to lower the curve and reduce the R0 of the infection, I start to see also another argument. We are basically pausing the life of younger people, indefinitely, to protect the elders. Again, since the quarantine started in my area I exist twice to buy groceries and that's all. So I understand the need and the importance of it. But should I really throw away on year of my life? Should…

The longer this goes on, the more traction this argument will gain.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#64

Post by Hermel »

_red wrote: post #41
coliveira wrote: post #36

> Any feasible plan starts with massive testing, completely subsidized by the government. And yet just yesterday the president claimed we don’t need mass testing. This is something I've been saying from day 1: short of universal vaccination, the only way to get back to some form of normalcy is widespread testing of the population. Any government with some sense of reality would spend billions in testing, to avoid los…

>widespread testing of the population So you mandatory test everyone and determine that 28% of the population has been exposed to the virus. Now what?

Cheer! Because with 28%, you are close enough to herd immunity that you can push R0 below 1 with social distancing.

In fact, herd immunity does not require 70% of the population to be immune. It just requires 70% of all potentially transmitting contacts being eliminated. And if those 28% who contracted the virus first are also the ones that have more contacts than average citizen (which should be the case, because that is why they probably got it before the other 72%), we might already be fine. Let's these 28% have 72% of all human contact (because human is -like almost everything - not distributed equally), then we would already be there and have reached herd immunity. There would still be sporadic local outbreaks, but nothing dramatic any more.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#66

Post by mymythisisthis »

Lots of business are converting to delivery. I think this is good. The warehouse style of store, prevalent since the 1960s is an outdated model.

Schools are moving more courses online. Another major upgrade.

The restaurant experience hasn't been rewarding for a long time. People should learn to cook at home. Experiment with fancier cuts of organic meat.

Movie theaters have been terrible for decades. Sticky floors, too many commercials, overpriced food. Now many film festivals are moving online.

Fast fashion was just a way of getting people to buy poorly made clothes from sweat shops.

So much of the crap people bought recently was just excessive junk; causing an environmental disaster.

We should just pay people to stay home and learn new skills. Why not pay people to taking online biology courses though the pandemic? There should be a startup that pays people to stay home and take biology courses. Exams can be online and for real verification done over video conference with an examiner. The startup then can get a % of your salary when you start working. Or, be paid through advertising from medical companies.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#67

Post by sosborn »

siscia wrote: post #53
wbl wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Young people die also when the health system is overloaded.

Still much less than the elders and I am not sure what your comment means. Again, what I am saying is that the lockdown punish purple differently, the most punished are the least affected by the virus itself

Young people will die not just from the virus, but from inadequate medical care caused by overloaded hospitals.

It’s a shit situation for young adults, but sometimes life isn’t fair.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#68

Post by basch »

frockington1 wrote: post #54
basch wrote: post #38

This will be a good chance for state governments to show how well they function and coordinate absent federal guidance. Maybe they will form their own federation to circumvent the current federations ineffectiveness. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-09/governors... That's at least one emergent non-California nation state coming to be. Maybe we could call it the Great States. Toronto can come too. https…

States shouldn't need federal guidance and should prefer not to receive it. Without federal oversight, states and municipalities can tailor policy to their own area

I don't disagree, absent a well stocked National Stockpile, the Great States should build their own emergency reserve for Natural Disaster and Pandemic. Each state building its own stockpiles of some things that don't hit all areas equally could be wasteful. Keep close relationships with manufacturing firms who are prepared to be ready on short notice.

This is as much a failure of planlessness as it is policy.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#69

Post by whatshisface »

siscia wrote: post #58
whatshisface wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This issue was addressed by the original UK policy that they about-faced on. Why? Because although it does not tend to kill young people, it does tend to put them in the hospital, and we cannot handle that many people in the hospital at once.

Still at much lower rate than the elders. And what I am saying is that the lockdown punish different class of people very differently. And the most punished are the least affected by the virus itself.

That may be true, but if it is it would lead to "slightly less lockdown for some people," not "no lockdown for some people." But to your broader point, that nobody in government is considering the finer aspects of modeling and optimization: yes, I know, I don't expect anything more from them, and I think they're a bunch of nincompoops who only know how to write legal documents and strike deals. However if I saw any push for more technical and effectiveness-oriented adjustments to the procedure I would jump on board.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#70

Post by siscia »

superkuh wrote: post #55
siscia wrote: post #40

For how much I understand the need to lower the curve and reduce the R0 of the infection, I start to see also another argument. We are basically pausing the life of younger people, indefinitely, to protect the elders. Again, since the quarantine started in my area I exist twice to buy groceries and that's all. So I understand the need and the importance of it. But should I really throw away on year of my life? Should…

>We are basically pausing the life of younger people, indefinitely, to protect the elders. No, we're pausing the life of everyone to protect everyone. If you overload the hospital systems then everyone dies. If you pause and keep things barely managable then mostly only old people die.

I believe we both agree that locking down 20/30 years old people who still have to study, to meet people, to make experience, to find lovers and to find themselves is very different that lock down 70/80 years old people right?

Then there is no doubts that the virus hit hardest the elders.

Again, what I am saying is that younger people are hit by the lockdown much more than the elders while being the less concerned about the virus itself.

And we should talk also about this.

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