The plans to reopen the economy are scary • Hacker News Board

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#41

Post by _red » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 5:57 PM UTC

coliveira wrote: post #36

> Any feasible plan starts with massive testing, completely subsidized by the government. And yet just yesterday the president claimed we don’t need mass testing. This is something I've been saying from day 1: short of universal vaccination, the only way to get back to some form of normalcy is widespread testing of the population. Any government with some sense of reality would spend billions in testing, to avoid los…

>widespread testing of the population

So you mandatory test everyone and determine that 28% of the population has been exposed to the virus. Now what?

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#42

Post by eloff » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 5:57 PM UTC

coliveira wrote: post #36

> Any feasible plan starts with massive testing, completely subsidized by the government. And yet just yesterday the president claimed we don’t need mass testing. This is something I've been saying from day 1: short of universal vaccination, the only way to get back to some form of normalcy is widespread testing of the population. Any government with some sense of reality would spend billions in testing, to avoid los…

If they had just closed their borders earlier could this have all been avoided? Seems like that would have been a lot cheaper.

Definitely border restrictions plus testing seems to be effective in keeping it out, see Taiwan.

Once you get enough local transmission going then it didn't matter anymore. Every western country reacted too slowly in this regard.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#43

Post by SpicyLemonZest » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 5:57 PM UTC

I'm extremely skeptical of any analysis that discusses political non-viability at this point. If you asked any commentator 2 months ago whether it was politically viable to issue general stay at home orders, or to give every American a bunch of free money, or to pass a multi-trillion dollar stimulus bill, they would have told you no.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#44

Post by frockington1 » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 5:57 PM UTC

whatshisface wrote: post #37

He's saying that such-and-such is politically unviable, but that's what we were all saying about business shutdowns, too.

In my state (Ohio) at least, protest are starting to form on the legality and length of shutting down businesses. It's still only a handful of people but seems to be growing every day. There is a very slim chance the government can enact shut downs for long and still maintain authority

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#45

Post by chapium » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 5:58 PM UTC

As long as our political leaders are elected for ignoring science, society will face big problems that we rely on science to keep at bay.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#46

Post by wbl » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 5:58 PM UTC

siscia wrote: post #40

For how much I understand the need to lower the curve and reduce the R0 of the infection, I start to see also another argument. We are basically pausing the life of younger people, indefinitely, to protect the elders. Again, since the quarantine started in my area I exist twice to buy groceries and that's all. So I understand the need and the importance of it. But should I really throw away on year of my life? Should…

Young people die also when the health system is overloaded.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#47

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 5:58 PM UTC

basch wrote: post #38

This will be a good chance for state governments to show how well they function and coordinate absent federal guidance. Maybe they will form their own federation to circumvent the current federations ineffectiveness. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-09/governors... That's at least one emergent non-California nation state coming to be. Maybe we could call it the Great States. Toronto can come too. https…

[deleted]

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#48

Post by mattmanser » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 5:58 PM UTC

Trump flip-flops within one briefing, let alone over a few days.

He'll be saying America's got the bestest, most wonderful, mass-testing that he helped invent and he'd always said mass testing was the way to go within a week or two and everything else is fake news.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#49

Post by whatshisface » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 5:59 PM UTC

siscia wrote: post #40

For how much I understand the need to lower the curve and reduce the R0 of the infection, I start to see also another argument. We are basically pausing the life of younger people, indefinitely, to protect the elders. Again, since the quarantine started in my area I exist twice to buy groceries and that's all. So I understand the need and the importance of it. But should I really throw away on year of my life? Should…

This issue was addressed by the original UK policy that they about-faced on. Why? Because although it does not tend to kill young people, it does tend to put them in the hospital, and we cannot handle that many people in the hospital at once.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#50

Post by Hermel » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 5:59 PM UTC

coliveira wrote: post #36

> Any feasible plan starts with massive testing, completely subsidized by the government. And yet just yesterday the president claimed we don’t need mass testing. This is something I've been saying from day 1: short of universal vaccination, the only way to get back to some form of normalcy is widespread testing of the population. Any government with some sense of reality would spend billions in testing, to avoid los…

I wonder whether taking the temperature is enough when combined with social distancing? For that, it would be interesting to know what percentage of people that are infectuous have an elevated temperature. 50% might already be enough, because that means we could cut the infection rate in half just by quarantining everyone with a slight fever.