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The plans to reopen the economy are scary

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21–30 of 214 posts

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#21
post #5

Oh my god, the system described by the CAP plan covered in this article cannot be allowed to come into being. Instant dystopian nightmare state. This kind of tool can't be un-made.

This is kinda a side question. But how do we know the NSA doesn't already do this?

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#22
post #5

Oh my god, the system described by the CAP plan covered in this article cannot be allowed to come into being. Instant dystopian nightmare state. This kind of tool can't be un-made.

And if it's law that you can uninstall it when you've been vaccinated? It can be unmade.

The government will like being able to track every citizen too much for that to happen.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#23

If we tolerate any of these plans, we get what we deserve. Louis CK's "OF COURSE... but maybe" skit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLGzFQg_1xc

What's the alternative? Let the virus rage, totally overwhelm the medical system and kill a whole bunch of people? Stay on lockdown for years until a vaccine's ready?

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the UK they're now making noises about letting the 20-30 year olds who live alone go back to work first. I imagine this is really code for "if we infect all these low-risk people first, we get a large proportion of our workforce immunised, for a fairly low hospitalisation proportion". I don't know enough about the models, but I also guess having a large chunk of your low-risk population already immune reduces R0 f…

> I imagine this is really code for "if we infect all these low-risk people first, we get a large proportion of our workforce immunised". I think it’s really code for “let’s repeat the mistakes we made early on when we adopted ‘herd immunity’ rather than isolation as an I itial strategy and spread this as rapidly as we can and create another critical peak”, because those people aren't completely isolated from the res…

I'm not sure what you're talking about, but the herd immunity thing was a throw-away statement tacked on to the end of an initial briefing, it was never the plan.

Also, we shut-down pretty quick when it became clear how much worse Italy was faring than the stats China had claimed.

There seems to be some pretty ridiculous things being said in foreign papers at the moment about Britain's response as it's an easy way to deflect criticism of themselves.

The only people who have the right to throw shit are the Germans, Soth Koreans, Taiwanese as they're the only ones who seem to have got ahead of this thing.

The British is on a similar trajectory (if not lower) then America/Italy/Spain/etc., if you put aside the frankly unprofessional and crazy IMHE projection (which is already failing to match real-life three days later).

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#25
post #21
post #5

Oh my god, the system described by the CAP plan covered in this article cannot be allowed to come into being. Instant dystopian nightmare state. This kind of tool can't be un-made.

This is kinda a side question. But how do we know the NSA doesn't already do this?

The linked article describes a tracking system that would be mandatory for every single American in order to e.g. board public transportation. (Such a system has already been rolled out in China where people get an automatic red–yellow–green health code and have to show it in public places.) While one can reasonably assume that the NSA is already capable of tracking a huge amount of phone location data from Google or Apple devices, people are still free to not have such a phone and they are still able to move around in public.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#26
post #23

If we tolerate any of these plans, we get what we deserve. Louis CK's "OF COURSE... but maybe" skit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLGzFQg_1xc

What's the alternative? Let the virus rage, totally overwhelm the medical system and kill a whole bunch of people? Stay on lockdown for years until a vaccine's ready?

That's a false dichotomy.

We could have locked down the vulnerable (60+ and those with pre-existing conditions), and anyone with a temperature, focused our healthcare efforts on them and let everyone else go about their business with more caution (masks + hand washing).

We would have built societal (cows are a herd, humans are a society) immunity by this point and could slowly return to normal for the at-risk crowd.

As it stands, we haven't built up any social immunity and will have to wait over a year for a vaccine which, by definition, we will not know the long term effects of.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#28
post #5

Oh my god, the system described by the CAP plan covered in this article cannot be allowed to come into being. Instant dystopian nightmare state. This kind of tool can't be un-made.

It does not have to be built that way: https://github.com/DP-3T/documents This is what we'll hopefully be using in Switzerland.

Unfortunately, the PEPP-PT approach will not protect privacy in many European countries. This is because an individual is linked to a phone number. Since you cannot purchase a SIM card in many countries without showing ID (and a copy of your ID is made and sent to the state authorities), the state is easily able to match phone numbers with people’s real identities. Consequently, the authorities will easily be able to track the user’s movements, or at least track what other people that person interacted with over a period of time, which is essentially the same thing.

If you read the PEPP-PT documentation closely, the “privacy protections” are mainly keeping you anonymous to other ordinary people. But people should reasonably want to remain anonymous from the state as well.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I imagine this is really code for "if we infect all these low-risk people first, we get a large proportion of our workforce immunised". I think it’s really code for “let’s repeat the mistakes we made early on when we adopted ‘herd immunity’ rather than isolation as an I itial strategy and spread this as rapidly as we can and create another critical peak”, because those people aren't completely isolated from the res…

I'm not sure what you're talking about, but the herd immunity thing was a throw-away statement tacked on to the end of an initial briefing, it was never the plan. Also, we shut-down pretty quick when it became clear how much worse Italy was faring than the stats China had claimed. There seems to be some pretty ridiculous things being said in foreign papers at the moment about Britain's response as it's an easy way to…

> but the herd immunity thing was a throw-away statement tacked on to the end of an initial briefing, it was never the plan.

This is incorrect. Herd immunity very much was the plan, driven by the fucking idiots in the nudge unit.

Here's David Halpern talking about cocooning and herd immunity: https://twitter.com/BBCMarkEaston/status/1237694665824047111

Here's a thread demolishing David Halpern's work. https://twitter.com/sophie_e_hill/status/1242512602112155650

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#30

The author considers letting the epidemic run its course on the demographics most at risk, to be the most unrealistic outcome. He writes: > I care about my privacy, but not nearly so much as I care about my mother. Most people care about their own mother. But if lockdowns, unemployment and poverty continue, I can definitely imagine people saying, "I don’t care about your mother, so why should I stay unemployed and co…

In the UK they're now making noises about letting the 20-30 year olds who live alone go back to work first. I imagine this is really code for "if we infect all these low-risk people first, we get a large proportion of our workforce immunised, for a fairly low hospitalisation proportion". I don't know enough about the models, but I also guess having a large chunk of your low-risk population already immune reduces R0 f…

Current plan for Norway is to start gradually opening up after Easter:

* Opening up kindergartens, physiotherapy, hair salons and allowing cottage holidays from 20th April

* Opening schools for 4 youngest classes, After School and some higher education in final years from 27th April

So you go after lowest-hanging fruits gradually, but it's a learning phase and could need rollback if people don't follow restrictions enough to contain contagion. This advice is a mix of political and expert analysis, after observing decline of new cases and deaths, after timely though not early, lockdown.

Norway is a small and nimble country, so could more easily be leading the response in the West. Though a new normal will have to include pandemic response in nearly all aspects of social life. The clustering and stochastic nature of the spread may become somewhat managable, with enough tracking, testing and preparations.

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