The plans to reopen the economy are scary

The plans to reopen the economy are scary
vox.com

Essentially, ICU admission for ventilators, and subsequent deaths, are the most complete and factual data we have.

The solid information we have is that 66% - 90% of ventilator patients die, as reported for both China and the US. Interviews with doctors all report that ventilators are supposed to be used for up to a week, not 3 weeks.

Although the occasional patient makes it off a ventilator, from a public healthcare policy standpoint, ventilators just don't work well enough, so there's no reason to "flatten the curve" now (April 10, 2020) aside from accumulating PPE (masks, gowns, gloves for hospital staff.) (A cure will likely take 18 months to invent and approve, so that's not something to put on a roadmap.)

The plan should be this:

1. have our healthcare policy experts (CDC, etc.) study today's reported data on patient mortality and PPE supplies for a couple days

2. inform seriously ill, high-risk corona hospital patients about the risks of ventilators (ie. you're probably going to die on one anyway, and horribly)

3. have dedicated quarantine and palliative buildings for moderately ill confirmed corona patients with O2 available (like the Javits Center in NY, as an example for discussion, or an anchored cruise ship moored off each major city). Recovered people can work there safely it appears.

4. have dedicated hospitals for corona ICU patients if they choose to try a ventilator (China has dedicated hospitals)

5. lift the US lockdown and treat corona like any other seasonal flu, mainly because it is, and also to avoid destruction of our economy and related uncertainty

6. the exception is passenger airline flights, which should be grounded until further notice. develop a plan to make airliners safer to fly (hepa filters, etc.) Cities shouldn't be under lockdown, but airlines are almost certainly a major disease vector and need to be treated as such.

(FYI: Wuhan has an international airport only 2 hours flying time to Shanghai Pudong International, which is a major hub. So that's likely how it spread world-wide.)

The impediments for the US to implement this plan are:

1. as a society, the US has lost the ability to formulate and execute policy at the highest level, whether healthcare, hurricane response or infrastructure. At this time, we need experts (like the CDC) to lead.

2. Trump should not be involved in any way, since he doesn't care about facts.

(The reasons California Governor Newsom broke contact this week with the federal government are essentially the above.)

I'll add my collection of supporting links later today. They are all consistent with each other, so the facts I outlined above are not in dispute.

Although the information from China was publicized late, it appears overall to be accurate and helpful. They used their previous experience with corona and bird flu infections to move fairly assertively on Covid-19 - a far better response than the US or Europe.

Please leave a comment if you want an area of my outline above to be fleshed out more.

If somebody could look into how Sweden and Germany have fared with less social distancing, that would be helpful. Please leave a comment about that.

AMA.

I imagine this is really code for "if we infect all these low-risk people first, we get a large proportion of our workforce immunised, for a fairly low hospitalisation proportion".

I don't know enough about the models, but I also guess having a large chunk of your low-risk population already immune reduces R0 for later waves too.

I can also see it back-firing when these same people think it's alright to nip round Mum's to say hi and give her a quick hug, it's only 5 minutes after all.

I've also heard that a large fast food chain estimates it will take up to 8 weeks before they can get supply chains up and running again. As an example the sheer quantities of lettuce they need aren't being planted because there's no demand for them, and you can't just magic them out of thin air when someone says 'you can open your stores again'.