Very interesting post. One way to get this talked about more widely is to somehow get it in front of Trump.
A (possible) solution to Covid-19
391–400 of 585 posts
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#392I'm always skeptical simple solutions proposed to solve complex problems. Unintended consequences or unanticipated roadblocks are often an issue. In this case, the author might under estimate the logistics involved in getting this done. At a minimum, the author does not adequately address the logistical challenges of this endeavor in the context of already challenging testing environments. The "quick & cheap" aspect…
I don't think this is a very simple solution at all.
It's really just a different vaccine approach and this isn't the first person to suggest it. It's been talked about online since February if not before.
Not to say I don't think it's a viable idea and I do think it needs more visibility. As the author states this has worked for other diseases.
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#393The author doesn't address how widespread the testing would need to be to accomplish this. What sample size is needed? Does it need to be geographically diverse? Does the human population tested need to be genetically diverse?
Also: Why is this faster than other methods of vaccine development already underway? Once developed, wide-scale manufacture & deployment is an enormous logistical challenge completely separate from R&D. Can this use existing vaccine manufacture & distribution channels?
It's difficult to really assess the viability of this plan without it taking into account many of these details. To my moderately-informed-outsider thinking (which lets face it, is the crowd the author was targeting by posting here on HN) it may suffer from the "ideas are easy, execution is hard" problem, because execution details apart from the actual R&D side are lacking. I'd like to hear more from the author on the topic though.
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#394How do we know that a less deadly strain actually provides some immunity to a more deadly strain? That seems like an assumption here.
You'd have to sample many thousands of people who either have no symptoms or got sick. If the strain only exists in people with no symptoms then there's a good chance it's not deadly or at least less deadly than the other strains.
Of course you might find the best strain you can find exists in 100% of asymptomatics and 20% of the dead. That would indicate your strain has some non-zero death rate.
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#395Earlier quoted context omitted.
"Captain's log, stardate 73740.9. The Enterprise has taken on board a distinguished Federation virologist, dr. Daniel Tillett, to help him with his search for a less harmful strain of the virus that's currently ravaging several planets in Federation space. The doctor is confident that such an attenuated strain could be used to swiftly end the ongoing pandemic." I would watch that episode. Hell, I'd watch any new epis…
And then it turns out similar to "Ethics", where the virologist's work is questionably founded and potentially quite dangerous, we get a Picard speech about how sacrificing some to save others is wrong, Data and Crusher technobabble up a treatment that doubles as a vaccine, the photogenic kid gets saved at the bottom of the fourth act, Admiral Nechayev and Picard fence a bit, credits. Pretty wild to count Enterprise…
> And then it turns out similar to "Ethics"
Perhaps, but that's Star Trek. It wasn't always obvious how the episode would end.
> Pretty wild to count Enterprise as "real Trek", but not Discovery.
Why? TNG, DS9, VOY and ENT, together with movies from TMP to NEM, form a certain coherent whole - both artistically, with themes, styles, pacing, and story-wise with a shared universe. Both Discovery and Picard, as well as JJ's movies, depart from that significantly. The style is different, the pacing is different, the stories and ethics are different (arguably much more shallow).
The Orville, though it was meant as a TNG-era Star Trek parody, seems much closer in pacing, style and ethics to that core TNG-era trek than Discovery.
> TNG was seminal and I loved it growing up too, but let's be real, it's showing its age quite badly these days
How so? Remastered version holds up pretty well today, I'd say.
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#396I'm always skeptical simple solutions proposed to solve complex problems. Unintended consequences or unanticipated roadblocks are often an issue. In this case, the author might under estimate the logistics involved in getting this done. At a minimum, the author does not adequately address the logistical challenges of this endeavor in the context of already challenging testing environments. The "quick & cheap" aspect…
I don't think this is a very simple solution at all. It's really just a different vaccine approach and this isn't the first person to suggest it. It's been talked about online since February if not before. Not to say I don't think it's a viable idea and I do think it needs more visibility. As the author states this has worked for other diseases.
The author proposes it as "quick & cheap" and leaves out nearly all logistical considerations. To my thinking, that is an overly-simple proposal.
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#397I posted and deleted a few comments. I don't know what to make of this and it's getting controversial. If it could be helpful, I'd love to improve it. I just don't know where it fits in ongoing discussions by prominent researchers on analysis of strains and types. Three things that jump out at me: a) You'll get more credibility from having a thorough lit review than from listing credentials. Linking to magazine artic…
Do you know what the commonly guessed incorrect solution to that card problem supposed to be?
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#398Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are they tracking that statistic? How many people who test positive later develop the symptoms? Apparently 80% of those tested later get symptoms: https://twitter.com/TonyBurnetti/status/1246258723774963713
Yes it appears that most people infected eventually get some symptoms. What matters is if they end up in hospital in the ICU or not. If we can find a strain that just makes you feel like you have a cold that you get over in a week or so then that is what we want.
*will settle for
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#399This entire article is a waste of time from the beginning. The “two strain” theory was debunked the very next day as bad science. http://virological.org/t/response-to-on-the-origin-and-conti... I can’t believe that a month later, this bad science is still being circulated, by a purported PhD and former professor.
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Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#400> "Can’t we just wait for a vaccine? > "No. Apart from the time it will take to develop, trial, and mass produce a vaccine (12-18 months), it is unlikely that any vaccine will be practicable. The reason why is immunity to respiratory viruses (like corona) doesn’t last long – 6 months to 2 years. We would have to keep vaccinating everyone in the world every year (or maybe every 6 months if we are unlucky). " I am not…
Poor countries can't afford that.