Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

A (possible) solution to Covid-19

tillett.info

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

221–230 of 585 posts

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#221

Post by danieltillett »

new299 wrote: post #209
danieltillett wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are looking at this from the wrong perspective. If people start spreading this attenuated strain around on their own what are the regulatory agencies going to do? Even if you wanted to go down the regulatory pathway for some reason it still has a number of advantages over other approaches. 1. We would know it is safe in humans before we began. 2. We would know what mutations make the virus less pathogenic. 3. Onc…

> What are regulatory agencies going to to do? If you were to start doing this without regulatory approval, the most likely outcomes seems that you’d be arrested [1]. Do you have anything that suggests otherwise? > 1. We would know it is safe in humans before we began. The regulatory requirements for “knowing it is safe in humans” are currently quite high. As things stand, I would expect trials to be required. Can yo…

I am not going to be spreading the virus around so why would I be arrested? Actually once a “safe” strain was identified and could be tested for it would be impossible to stop it being spread by individuals on their own to those they know.

As we have seen with the whole HCQ fiasco regulations have a habit of getting lowered once there is data, even poor data. If we contact trace everyone who has been infected with the attenuated strain we will get some good data on the safety of the strain. It might not be 100% safe, and we might have some questions, but that is a discussion we can have once we find the strain.

We need to make some hard choices here between certainty and action. Waiting for certainty is a choice that carries a very high cost.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#223

Post by jfoster »

danieltillett wrote: post #117
andai wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The key here is that the vulnerable population needs to tolerate it, too.

Technically they don’t provided we can get the herd immunity up to a decent level in the rest of the population. While it would be a good idea if the mutated strain was no more dangerous than a common cold coronavirus, we could drive the dangerous strains to extinction without having to infect the vulnerable.

Very difficult to get herd immunity up to a decent enough level without putting the vulnerable portion of the population in great danger though. Most countries are approaching something like 0.1% or 0.2% of the population having been infected. Herd immunity requires 70% - 80% immunity. About 350x - 800x more than what's happened already.

Also the whole thing presumes that immunity is lasting. Some of the data is showing that may not be the case.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#224

Post by losvedir »

How does the Iceland data suggest the hypotheses that 1) an attenuated strain exists in the wild and 2) it provides immunity to the worse strain? It's asserted in the post, but I don't see it. It seems likely to me their experience isn't any different from any other country's, and they're just testing more.

The idea in the post is obviously a good one if it can be done, it's just that it seems like a generic idea that should be considered for any viral pandemic, which makes me wonder why it's not already an approach people are working on.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#225

Post by danieltillett »

NyxWulf wrote: post #217
danieltillett wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the exact problem my idea solves. Please take some time to read through the whole proposal again. I know this sound snarky, but yours is a really common response that has been addressed.

I did read through your entire proposal, this is a legitimate question, and is not address in your proposal. It is definitely not the problem your proposal is aimed at solving. The question posed is would an attenuated virus create a much short immunity reducing efficacy of the overall approach. It seems like the only answer can be we don't know, we'd have to look at that.

Yes it could create a shorter immunity, but the idea is to use the attenuated strain to drive the dangerous strain to extinction.

More fundamentally there are many questions that are unknown, but doing nothing until they are all answered it a choice that has a very high cost.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#226

Post by patall »

NyxWulf wrote: post #217
danieltillett wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the exact problem my idea solves. Please take some time to read through the whole proposal again. I know this sound snarky, but yours is a really common response that has been addressed.

I did read through your entire proposal, this is a legitimate question, and is not address in your proposal. It is definitely not the problem your proposal is aimed at solving. The question posed is would an attenuated virus create a much short immunity reducing efficacy of the overall approach. It seems like the only answer can be we don't know, we'd have to look at that.

Exactly. His whole proposal is based on the assumption that an attenuated strain imuunizes enough people long enough. This has been possible in other diseases. But for example not the common cold, and not only because many different virus belong to that category.

So yes, I read your proposal. No, this is not addressed.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#229

Post by FiberBundle »

rmu09 wrote: post #218
FiberBundle wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This goes contrary to what other studies have found. In the Stockholm metropolitan area they found that 2.5% percent of the population was infected [1]. In in a community in Germany, which was the epicenter of the outbreak for a time, they found that 15% of the population tested positive for antibodies [2]. In Iceland they found that 88-93% of the infections are undetected [3]. [1] https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se…

I don't think it is actually contrary to those other studies. The austrian study randomly selected among the whole population whereas the german study used a cluster connected to a hot-spot. IMO it is measures like social distancing in place for more than 3 weeks at the time of sample-taking in austria that reflect in the data.

It does. The german study was conducted in a town that was relatively heavily tested during its outbreak, and only recorded 2.5% official infections in the population of that town, so the german study showed the actual number to be 7 times as high. This Austrian study found this number to be only ~2.5 times as high. Germany and Austria overall seem to test fairly similarly.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#230

Post by danieltillett »

nabla9 wrote: post #214
danieltillett wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The true infection rate is irrelevant. Nobody knows what it is right now and by the time we do it will be too late.

We are talking infection fatality rate not infection rate. Infection fatality rate is number of people who die after they are infected. That's one of the most important numbers and it can be estimated. It's different from case fatality rate. Number of people diagnosed with COVID-19 who die. You started your argument trying to argue based on your understanding of what the infection fatality rate is.

Nobody knows the true infection fatality rate. Probably the best estimate we can make is from South Korea where they have done a pretty good job of testing everyone infected. There the infection fatality rate is 1.8% and rising as the cases age out and people in the ICUs die.
Post reply on HN