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A (possible) solution to Covid-19

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Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#191

Post by danieltillett »

_-___________-_ wrote: post #188

> SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) appears to be killing between 1% to 3.5% of the people it infects The article that this text links to discusses case fatality rate, which is not the percentage of people the virus infects that die. This is a fundamental and very important difference, especially given that you later note the percentage of asymptomatic people.

Nobody knows the true asymptomatic rate, but even if it is 5o% the number of people that will be killed is massive.

Let’s not get caught up on the final death rate and let’s look at what we can do right now.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#192

Post by _-___________-_ »

pinkfoot wrote: post #171
drtillberg wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We wouldn't insist that people 'stop breathing' to prevent the spread of coromaviris. It's only somewhat different to insist that we all stop living and working. Masks and gloves, plus generally keeping 6ft apart and routinely testing and contact tracing/quarantining infected individuals... what's the effective rate there? 95%? The modern medical establishment would move heaven and Earth, and incur thousands of dolla…

> There just isn't a lot of evidence for the case that the choice is shutting the economic or killing millions. Which is why we have models, no?

Yes, although reality seems to be disagreeing with the models more and more. You have countries in southeast Asia with community transmission but no lockdown, and countries in Europe with the military enforcing a strict lockdown, and the latter are far worse off in terms of hospital admissions and deaths per capita than the former.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#193

Post by rmu09 »

The results of a study in austria with 1500 randomly selected citizens have just been published, just 5 have been found to be currently infected with SARS-CoV2.

The conclusion is that the prevalence of asymptomatic cases is about 0,32%, CL95 is 0,12-0,76%.

Link (in german): https://www.sora.at/nc/news-presse/news/news-einzelansicht/n...

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#194

Post by _-___________-_ »

op00to wrote: post #154
danieltillett wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am more than happy to be exposed to an attenuated SARS-CoV-2 strain, but first we have to find one. My idea is how we can find one.

I think it would be pretty easy for you to find a strain. Start licking subway poles, then see what happens! Just kidding. Stay safe. ;)

If the virus managed to stay alive on a subway pole for very long, it's probably not very attenuated, no?

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#195

Post by _-___________-_ »

danieltillett wrote: post #191
_-___________-_ wrote: post #188

> SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) appears to be killing between 1% to 3.5% of the people it infects The article that this text links to discusses case fatality rate, which is not the percentage of people the virus infects that die. This is a fundamental and very important difference, especially given that you later note the percentage of asymptomatic people.

Nobody knows the true asymptomatic rate, but even if it is 5o% the number of people that will be killed is massive. Let’s not get caught up on the final death rate and let’s look at what we can do right now.

The OP literally opens with a misinterpreted statistic. It links to an article about CFR and claims that the values are IFR instead of CFR. This is not "getting caught up on something", I'm pointing out a fundamental error.

Most serious estimates of IFR are between 0.1 and 0.6%. The OP should be edited to either correctly state that COVID-19 kills between 1 and 3.5% of identified cases, or be updated to use numbers that are not misleading.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#196

Post by weakstrain »

The author is thinking that reversing a deleted zone mutation is hard, but it could be that a simple mutation of the weak strain make it deadly, so my question is: can you guarantee that a new mutation is not going to make this strain deadly?, also the more people with the new strain of the virus, the more the bad mutation could happen.

So I suggest looking for a strain for which we have a mean of killing the virus, that is a weak virus for which we have a general vaccine for expected mutations, if that is possible.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#197

Post by uk_programmer »

ajnin wrote: post #186

The idea of voluntarily infecting the entirety of the population with a virus to prevent economic downturn seems a very dangerous idea to me. The purpose of society is to ensure the well-being of the people. It is not economic growth. Furthermore, I see a few problems with that idea : - it seems very hard to create a truly harmless virus. Viruses still destroy cells to replicate, they cause immune system response, in…

The reason why you need economic growth is to ensure the well being of your people, you talk about them as they are not interlinked when they very much are.

Other countries (some that may not care about the well being of their citizens) will be quite happy to take your place hierarchy and exert their influence over the world as they see fit, which may well be to the detriment to your nation (and nation is comprised of its people).

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#198

Post by danieltillett »

nabla9 wrote: post #183
danieltillett wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not a proposal for a live attenuated vaccine. These numbers on the death rate are not mine, but what has been reported in the scientific literature. Probably the best numbers come from South Korea where they have done a pretty good job of tracking down everyone infected. There the fatality rate is around 1.8%. Even if the true death rate is 0.6% that still means the deaths of nearly 50 million people worldwid…

Even the sources you cite give case fatality rate not infection fatality rate. You are confusing the two.

The true infection rate is irrelevant. Nobody knows what it is right now and by the time we do it will be too late.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#199

Post by buboard »

danieltillett wrote: post #138
postingawayonhn wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there a significant difference between being dead and being isolated?

From the short term perspective of the virus no, but long term...

does that mean that cured people will start re-infecting people?

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#200

Post by danieltillett »

0k wrote: post #133

Brilliant && simple. Why nobody is acting on it? Please correct spelling: ..I now work.. ..a number of papers.. Thank you, please spread the word (url).

No idea why nobody is acting on it - maybe nobody else has thought of it yet. While the idea of there being attenuated strains out there is nothing radical, the idea of using them is.

Please everyone if you know someone you think might be able to help make this happen then spread the word. You are even welcome to steal the idea and claim it is your own :)

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