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A (possible) solution to Covid-19

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Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#171

Post by pinkfoot »

drtillberg wrote: post #158
grey-area wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a false dichotomy. Masks or gloves as worn by ordinary people are nowhere near effective enough to mean lockdowns could end. They're very effective in clinical settings with proper ppe head to toe and procedures for taking them off outside the dirty ward, but there's no way most people can stick to those, nor keep their houses/shops clean enough. I believe it's also well established that any measures taken to…

We wouldn't insist that people 'stop breathing' to prevent the spread of coromaviris. It's only somewhat different to insist that we all stop living and working. Masks and gloves, plus generally keeping 6ft apart and routinely testing and contact tracing/quarantining infected individuals... what's the effective rate there? 95%? The modern medical establishment would move heaven and Earth, and incur thousands of dolla…

> There just isn't a lot of evidence for the case that the choice is shutting the economic or killing millions.

Which is why we have models, no?

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#172

Post by robomartin »

danieltillett wrote: post #2

I have posted this again as dang asked me to put it up again. Happy to answer questions about the idea, but I am most interested in find collaborators to make it happen ASAP.

I just sent your article to my contacts at the White House, Department of Defense, DARPA and a couple of other acronym agencies. I sent this to Director level people (or just under) at those agencies.

No guarantees (they are all swamped). I hope they respond and put you in touch with the right people.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#173

Post by sfj »

ubercow13 wrote: post #169

How would you allow the harmless strain to spread without also spreading the deadly strain? If you relax or reverse social distancing, wouldn't the deadly strain also have a chance to spread widely again? It seems like you'd need to manually administer this strain to millions of people, or have very carefully administered 'contagion parties' where everyone is pre-screened for the deadly strain, while everyone else ke…

> It seems like you'd need to manually administer this strain to millions of people.

Yes, but this doesn't seem too hard. Just have some infected people spit in a cup, and mix it into large vats of raspberry jam and people can then just spread it on their toast on one morning.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#174

Post by danieltillett »

anonymouz wrote: post #146
danieltillett wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By doing an end run around the regulations. Actually even if you were to follow all the vaccine regulations by choice this would still be faster as it would have already been tested in human. Nature has run the trials for us.

I don't see the point of this. Nature has most certainly not established the long-term effects of this virus, seeing as it has only been spreading in humans for a short while. Skirting the regulations is pointless, because the important thing is the intent of the regulations. If it were just a problem with the regulations, we could also just change the regulations and give the untested vaccine. Plus, if you want to a…

If we wait for the long term we will all get infected and we will all be broke. We need to think differently.

I am not arguing that we should infect people on purpose. If people chose to become infected on their own by hanging out with those infected with an attenuated strain then that is a very different legal question.

Personally I think the result would be the regulatory agency would just rush the use through based on the epidemiology data gathered in the search for the attenuated strain.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#175

Post by Scarblac »

Guthur wrote: post #99
coconut_crab wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(I am not a professional, so what I write below might be wrong) Having more time to develop a vaccine or effective treatments is essential, it doesn't have to be herd immunity. Plus in countries where covid19 rate is low enough, social distancing can be helpful for finding and isolating clusters to suppress the epidemic.

Of course, there are two ways out of this, herd or vaccine. The above is a variation of herd that may result in less deaths. The real problem is that waiting until a vaccine is just not even remotely realistic for so many reasons that it's not even funny. We could end up causing more indirect deaths with social isolation than we could possibly imagine, worst case being a huge collapse in the economy results in a larg…

Or indefinite tracking, tracing and isolating.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#176

Post by danieltillett »

Gupie wrote: post #157
danieltillett wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the FDA regulating the spread of the dangerous version? More seriously there is nothing for the FDA to regulate here. It is a natural virus spreading in a natural way.

How can you claim it would be spread in a natural way? The intention is to spread it deliberately.

Because the attenuate virus we are looking for would be one that can spread naturally. Of course humans might choose to help it along once it is found by say hanging out with an infected person. Lots of options here

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#177

Post by throwaway_pdp09 »

ubercow13 wrote: post #169

How would you allow the harmless strain to spread without also spreading the deadly strain? If you relax or reverse social distancing, wouldn't the deadly strain also have a chance to spread widely again? It seems like you'd need to manually administer this strain to millions of people, or have very carefully administered 'contagion parties' where everyone is pre-screened for the deadly strain, while everyone else ke…

> you'd need to manually administer this strain to millions of people

Yes. And how would that compare to the various trillions in stimulus to keep a choking world economy afloat, never mind the deaths that could be avoided?

I don't understand posts like this, they say "if we had a good solution, how could we possibly use it?"

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#179

Post by [deleted] »

ubercow13 wrote: post #169

How would you allow the harmless strain to spread without also spreading the deadly strain? If you relax or reverse social distancing, wouldn't the deadly strain also have a chance to spread widely again? It seems like you'd need to manually administer this strain to millions of people, or have very carefully administered 'contagion parties' where everyone is pre-screened for the deadly strain, while everyone else ke…

[deleted]

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#180

Post by tomohawk »

danieltillett wrote: post #43
ziga wrote: post #35

> More than 50% of the people infected with SARS-CoV-19 are asymptomatic (i.e. they have no illness). Note: asymptomatic at the time of testing. They may still develop symptoms over time. https://www.icelandreview.com/sci-tech/is-icelands-coronavir... https://twitter.com/cmyeaton/status/1246196001775460358

Yes this is true. For the purpose of my idea it doesn’t matter if the person is asymptomatic or they just have a mild case. What is important is the strain identified doesn’t put people in hospital.

Perhaps start with these people:

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/mystery-of-long-...

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