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A (possible) solution to Covid-19

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Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#211

Post by danieltillett »

ubercow13 wrote: post #205
throwaway_pdp09 wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you'd need to manually administer this strain to millions of people Yes. And how would that compare to the various trillions in stimulus to keep a choking world economy afloat, never mind the deaths that could be avoided? I don't understand posts like this, they say "if we had a good solution, how could we possibly use it?"

I think you’re reading too much into my post, I was just wondering how to safely carry out this idea. One reason I was wondering is that manually administering the virus to people seems more akin to a vaccine in nature.

Only if you consider hanging out with someone a vaccine.

As I mentioned in my reply to you it will be impossible to stop this strain from being deliberately spread by people on their own.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#212

Post by FiberBundle »

rmu09 wrote: post #193

The results of a study in austria with 1500 randomly selected citizens have just been published, just 5 have been found to be currently infected with SARS-CoV2. The conclusion is that the prevalence of asymptomatic cases is about 0,32%, CL95 is 0,12-0,76%. Link (in german): https://www.sora.at/nc/news-presse/news/news-einzelansicht/n...

This goes contrary to what other studies have found. In the Stockholm metropolitan area they found that 2.5% percent of the population was infected [1]. In in a community in Germany, which was the epicenter of the outbreak for a time, they found that 15% of the population tested positive for antibodies [2]. In Iceland they found that 88-93% of the infections are undetected [3].

[1] https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhets...

[2] https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwis...

[3] http://www.igmchicago.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Covid_I...

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#213

Post by danieltillett »

ubercow13 wrote: post #210
danieltillett wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are dozens of ways the attenuated strain could be spread. You could do anything from going door to door sticking an infected swab up people’s noses to one of your contagion parties (they would be fun). Actually once a safe strain was identified it would be impossible to stop people spreading it on their own. People would test to make sure they had the safe strain and then invite everyone they knew around for te…

Everyone they knew would need screening for the asymptomatic deadly strain first, or there would be a risk of everyone at the party catching the wrong strain.

Depends on how large the party is :)

People will do this on their own once the strain is identified and there is a test for it.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#214

Post by nabla9 »

danieltillett wrote: post #198
nabla9 wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even the sources you cite give case fatality rate not infection fatality rate. You are confusing the two.

The true infection rate is irrelevant. Nobody knows what it is right now and by the time we do it will be too late.

We are talking infection fatality rate not infection rate.

Infection fatality rate is number of people who die after they are infected. That's one of the most important numbers and it can be estimated. It's different from case fatality rate. Number of people diagnosed with COVID-19 who die.

You started your argument trying to argue based on your understanding of what the infection fatality rate is.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#215

Post by danieltillett »

robomartin wrote: post #172
danieltillett wrote: post #2

I have posted this again as dang asked me to put it up again. Happy to answer questions about the idea, but I am most interested in find collaborators to make it happen ASAP.

I just sent your article to my contacts at the White House, Department of Defense, DARPA and a couple of other acronym agencies. I sent this to Director level people (or just under) at those agencies. No guarantees (they are all swamped). I hope they respond and put you in touch with the right people.

Thanks. This is the problem I have run into which is all the right people are so busy at the moment that they don’t have time to look at something like this from someone like me.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#216

Post by dragonsh »

danieltillett wrote: post #43
ziga wrote: post #35

> More than 50% of the people infected with SARS-CoV-19 are asymptomatic (i.e. they have no illness). Note: asymptomatic at the time of testing. They may still develop symptoms over time. https://www.icelandreview.com/sci-tech/is-icelands-coronavir... https://twitter.com/cmyeaton/status/1246196001775460358

Yes this is true. For the purpose of my idea it doesn’t matter if the person is asymptomatic or they just have a mild case. What is important is the strain identified doesn’t put people in hospital.

Well this is what many countries and scientists are already doing. It’s just not working as virus is unpredictable and it might infect some but not others.

The best way to find a solution is still try to understand how it acts on different types of people and if they have underlying previous conditions what changes it does, this takes time and I believe that’s the reason there isn’t any cure except by chance in a short time.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#217

Post by NyxWulf »

danieltillett wrote: post #112
patall wrote: post #109

A huge problem I see with this is that already circulating coronaviruses cause immunities as short as 3 months. While the SARS virus seems to cause much longer immunity (same for MERS), this may be linked to the strong symptomes that people have, thus may be due to a stronger immune reaction. Asymptomatic cases and people with mild symptoms may therefore be immune only for a short time. If this is the case, any herd…

This is the exact problem my idea solves. Please take some time to read through the whole proposal again. I know this sound snarky, but yours is a really common response that has been addressed.

I did read through your entire proposal, this is a legitimate question, and is not address in your proposal. It is definitely not the problem your proposal is aimed at solving.

The question posed is would an attenuated virus create a much short immunity reducing efficacy of the overall approach. It seems like the only answer can be we don't know, we'd have to look at that.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#218

Post by rmu09 »

FiberBundle wrote: post #212
rmu09 wrote: post #193

The results of a study in austria with 1500 randomly selected citizens have just been published, just 5 have been found to be currently infected with SARS-CoV2. The conclusion is that the prevalence of asymptomatic cases is about 0,32%, CL95 is 0,12-0,76%. Link (in german): https://www.sora.at/nc/news-presse/news/news-einzelansicht/n...

This goes contrary to what other studies have found. In the Stockholm metropolitan area they found that 2.5% percent of the population was infected [1]. In in a community in Germany, which was the epicenter of the outbreak for a time, they found that 15% of the population tested positive for antibodies [2]. In Iceland they found that 88-93% of the infections are undetected [3]. [1] https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se…

I don't think it is actually contrary to those other studies. The austrian study randomly selected among the whole population whereas the german study used a cluster connected to a hot-spot. IMO it is measures like social distancing in place for more than 3 weeks at the time of sample-taking in austria that reflect in the data.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#219

Post by jfoster »

dragonsh wrote: post #216
danieltillett wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes this is true. For the purpose of my idea it doesn’t matter if the person is asymptomatic or they just have a mild case. What is important is the strain identified doesn’t put people in hospital.

Well this is what many countries and scientists are already doing. It’s just not working as virus is unpredictable and it might infect some but not others. The best way to find a solution is still try to understand how it acts on different types of people and if they have underlying previous conditions what changes it does, this takes time and I believe that’s the reason there isn’t any cure except by chance in a sho…

Are they already doing that? Is there somewhere I can find the statistics broken out by strain? Or even a list of identifiers of the known strains?

From what I've seen, it's been published in some news articles and such that there "might be" different strains. Haven't seen anything particularly solid yet.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#220

Post by dongping »

I'm not qualified to assess the risk, but if the there's indeed ADE (antibody dependent enhancement),[1][2] people once infected with a milder strain may suffer from more severe symptom from the deadlier strains, thus killing more people in the end.

I'm wondering how we may rule out this worst case scenario.

[1] Is COVID-19 receiving ADE from other coronaviruses? https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S128645792...

[2] New blood tests for antibodies could show true scale of coronavirus pandemic https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/new-blood-tests-anti...

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