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A (possible) solution to Covid-19

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Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#101

Post by andai »

danieltillett wrote: post #43
ziga wrote: post #35

> More than 50% of the people infected with SARS-CoV-19 are asymptomatic (i.e. they have no illness). Note: asymptomatic at the time of testing. They may still develop symptoms over time. https://www.icelandreview.com/sci-tech/is-icelands-coronavir... https://twitter.com/cmyeaton/status/1246196001775460358

Yes this is true. For the purpose of my idea it doesn’t matter if the person is asymptomatic or they just have a mild case. What is important is the strain identified doesn’t put people in hospital.

The key here is that the vulnerable population needs to tolerate it, too.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#102

Post by cc81 »

Lordarminius wrote: post #83
danieltillett wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. What we really want is a strain that has infected a whole lot of people and all of them have had a mild case.

>What we really want is a strain that has infected a whole lot of people and all of them have had a mild case How about 10 to 50 million ? I live in Nigeria. Between December and late February, many people in Nigeria and Ghana report experiencing symptoms similar to those that could be caused moderate COVID-19 infection. These included, fever, diarhoea, cough, sore throat, malaise. Many physicians and scientists I kn…

That is also the symptoms of the ordinary flu which is the more likely candidate.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#103

Post by hutzlibu »

Taek wrote: post #80
jbermudes wrote: post #12

I'm glad people are realizing that all this social distancing is merely a pause button on the virus. Once we press play on society, exponential growth will happen again and we will have effectively rolled back the clock until we reach herd immunity through things like the OP's suggestion. At least this next time we'll hopefully have more PPE.

I'd much rather live in a world where everyone is required to wear masks all the time than live in a world where we are all told to stay home all the time. I believe it's also well established that any measures taken to slow the spread of a new virus will always result in fewer total deaths, in that sense quarantining is much more effective than just being a pause button.

"where everyone is required to wear masks all the time"

And this is what bothers me with such laws. No it does not make sense to wear masks all the time. (even assumed only outside) When I am running alone in the forest I do not need a mask. While driving a car alone, or with a partner, I do not need a mask. So the law should be, wearing masks all the time in populated public spaces.

"I believe it's also well established that any measures taken to slow the spread of a new virus will always result in fewer total deaths"

And this is only true if you look only isolated at the virus and do not take into account the various big side effects of a lockdown. Because you will get deaths from: suicide, domestic violence, other diseases, because staying home is not really good for the immune system and general health. Also this only takes into account the rich world. In india staying home is also required, but this is a really serious death risk, if your home is a metal barrack in the slums, with no AC, meaning you just get cooked. Before you starve to death, because you have no income anymore.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#104

Post by roenxi »

tilolebo wrote: post #100
jbermudes wrote: post #12

I'm glad people are realizing that all this social distancing is merely a pause button on the virus. Once we press play on society, exponential growth will happen again and we will have effectively rolled back the clock until we reach herd immunity through things like the OP's suggestion. At least this next time we'll hopefully have more PPE.

It's not a pause button, it's a playback speed button that slows down the contamination. Remember #FlattenTheCurve. What is true is that it would take waaaay longer to reach herd immunity this way. Another thing that people usually get wrong is the her immunity concept: from what I understand, it doesn't mean we ALL need to be infected. We just need to be enough, so the virus can't spread anymore.

Alas, if you do some order of magnitude calculations you might find that that'll take a very long time.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#105

Post by ed_balls »

sysbin wrote: post #54

In theory the idea would work. People being cooperative enough is where I'm skeptical. I assume anyone in the high risk group would volunteer to receive the less-dangerous strain and when the incentive of lowering risk of death is obvious. I speculate young people wouldn't volunteer unless they have a health issue placing them in the high risk group.

> I speculate young people wouldn't volunteer

That doesn't matter. The reason why everything is closed is hospital capacity. That impacts everybody. If you had a car accident you may not get all the help you need.

14% of people may need hospitalisation and you want to focus your efforts on that group. There is almost no young people there.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#106

Post by DagAgren »

jbermudes wrote: post #12

I'm glad people are realizing that all this social distancing is merely a pause button on the virus. Once we press play on society, exponential growth will happen again and we will have effectively rolled back the clock until we reach herd immunity through things like the OP's suggestion. At least this next time we'll hopefully have more PPE.

The point of social distancing is to bring the number of cases down to a point where other measures are possible, such as test-and-trace. Social distancing is step 1, not the whole process.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#108

Post by postingawayonhn »

danieltillett wrote: post #85
buboard wrote: post #62

Considering that we are now in a shutdown, and assuming that most symptomatic people do get tested and isolate themselves, doesnt that mean there is pressure for asymptomatic strains to evolve and keep spreading faster in the population anyway? they would be more likely to exist in the early epidemics, specifically south korea which aggressively quarantines people, but does not impose lockdowns, letting the asymptoma…

There is really no selection pressure on the current dangerous strain right now. If it was killing 50-60% of people infected then yes the selection pressure would be there, but at a death rate of 1.5%-2% there basically is very little selection pressure on the timescales we are interested in. It doesn’t really matter to us today if this virus eventually becomes less dangerous in the next 500 years. We need to speed t…

Is there a significant difference between being dead and being isolated?

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#109

Post by patall »

A huge problem I see with this is that already circulating coronaviruses cause immunities as short as 3 months. While the SARS virus seems to cause much longer immunity (same for MERS), this may be linked to the strong symptomes that people have, thus may be due to a stronger immune reaction. Asymptomatic cases and people with mild symptoms may therefore be immune only for a short time. If this is the case, any herd immunity strategy will achieve not much but endanger many many people.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#110

Post by postingawayonhn »

danieltillett wrote: post #86
Gupie wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you mean this "virus would not be a vaccine from a regulatory perspective"? In that case it is just another vaccine approach, but one that you alledge falls outside the current regulations. Do you think the regulations need to change due to the emergency?

This is a question that really is unimportant at this point. What matters is what we can do today.

It's extremely important because it's a question a lot of people are going to be asking. You'll need a good answer as to why this approach should not be subject to similar regulations as vaccines otherwise this will go nowhere.
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