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Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#181

Post by tim333 »

swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

I've seen some discussion. Bill Gates was talking about steps to end the lockdown yesterday https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKg40HX6oUo

eg. Restarting factory production probably worth it soon, large sports events not.

A big problem with this is there are so many unknowns - will there be effective treatment, a vaccine and so on.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#182

Post by tim333 »

mLuby wrote: post #2

And yet the stock market is already recovering. I guess "worst crisis since Great Depression" has been priced in?

I'm part of that - I was buying stocks a couple of weeks ago after nothing for ages. My hypothesis was largely that things are peaking and at the time I thought it will be over soon. I'm a little less optimistic now.

I don't think we have much danger of the main failing of the great depression - a collapse of the money supply because governments wouldn't step in. They seem pretty willing now but the virus itself remains a problem.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#183

Post by tim333 »

yumraj wrote: post #146

And the market in the US went up today. Are people in denial, algos are driving this, or something else?

It's not all bad news out there. Didier Raoult was reporting today the results of testing anyone who turns up and treating with hydroxychloroquine and z-pak. Looks like 0.5% mortality mostly in the over 80s, and the infection rates for Marseille as a whole coming down I think from 350 cases a day to 100 or so, the ICU emptying. I know people are saying it's all unproven but at some point they'll probably say oh look it actually works, kinda.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#184

Post by redis_mlc »

pengaru wrote: post #158
redis_mlc wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It already happened. The West will be litigating unpaid rent, etc. for the next decade since there aren't enough court rooms. What we fundamentally got wrong is that ventilators don't work in 66% - 90% of cases, so "flattening the curve" was largely pointless and distracted leaders from low-tech solutions like quarantine centers and palliative care. We should have learned that in 2002 from SARS-1, but nobody even see…

> What we fundamentally got wrong is that ventilators don't work in 66% - 90% of cases, so "flattening the curve" was largely pointless. Use of ventilators coincides with severe cases, and up until this point we haven't learned enough about curing those infected with this virus to recover all such cases. Why are you assuming the ventilator recovery rate is static? We should assume that by "flattening the curve", we'v…

> Ventilators will always play a role in keeping patients alive

No they don't. After a few weeks your lungs turn to mush, among other problems.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#185

Post by redis_mlc »

lazylizard wrote: post #144
jmcgough wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cuomo has already said this iirc; most people who go on a ventilator don't come off of it alive. That doesn't make it pointless to even have ventilators though, a 40% survival rate is certainly better than a 0% survival rate for those who need a ventilator.

Do they die because or inspite of the ventilators?

It's both. You're sedated (comatose) to tolerate the tube and allow the machine to manage the pressure. After a few weeks the air pressure destroys your lungs and the sedation causes you to lose muscle strength. So you get sicker day by day.

I'm still waiting for an interview with a ventilator survivor. None so far.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#186

Post by DiogenesKynikos »

apatters wrote: post #164
lisper wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you assume a mortality rate of 1% (which is probably in the ballpark) then you can expect 75 million deaths without intervention. So far world-wide we've had about 95,000 deaths. So doing nothing would result in about 700 times as many deaths as have occurred so far. I'd say it's probably to soon to throw in the towel.

A 1% mortality rate is much higher than the ballpark. A recent study which was featured on Hacker News estimated the infection fatality rate at 0.66%. [1] The IFR represents how many of those who got it and ended up dead (regardless of whether their case was tested, diagnosed or confirmed). It doesn't represent the whole population. The same study estimated 60-80% of people could eventually contract the disease. 70%…

Losing 1% of humanity and losing 0.5% of humanity are in the same neighborhood of terrible.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#187

Post by apatters »

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #186
apatters wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 1% mortality rate is much higher than the ballpark. A recent study which was featured on Hacker News estimated the infection fatality rate at 0.66%. [1] The IFR represents how many of those who got it and ended up dead (regardless of whether their case was tested, diagnosed or confirmed). It doesn't represent the whole population. The same study estimated 60-80% of people could eventually contract the disease. 70%…

Losing 1% of humanity and losing 0.5% of humanity are in the same neighborhood of terrible.

Actually I would argue they are not the same when your solution will force some number of people into poverty (plus in the US cause them to lose their health care).

No one wants to have to think about these numbers, but if you're responsible for making policy, it's very important to have good estimates of how many lives your policy will save and how many it will ruin. If you don't you're just reacting to the latest panic in the news cycle as sadly far too many politicians do.

Data matters, facts matter.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#188

Post by jobigoud »

nradov wrote: post #159
threeseed wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. Consensus from almost all countries is that you need to quarantine and shut down the economy in order to beat this. Those that believed that they could get around this with herd immunity are either paying a huge price (UK) or about to (Sweden). And those politicians that took hard measures actually have been rewarded (Australia) and those that didn't punished (UK, US).

We'll find out in a few weeks whether the herd immunity approach is effective by looking at what happens in the poorest countries. Some of them have minimal ability to lock down the economy or quarantine people due to lack of resources, dysfunctional healthcare systems, limited food reserves, and weak governments. So the virus is going to run its course regardless of what anyone wants. It's a tragic situation but the…

I think Iran was the first in this category.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#189

Post by jobigoud »

option wrote: post #121
swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

I think we should also view lockdown costs in life time lost. Hundreds of millions of people now lost a month or more of their lives

Life time lost? If you can't work remotely just pick up some indoor hobbies. Learn Spanish or French, learn to play guitar, experiment with electronics, contribute to an open source software, or teach something you know to someone else over video. Life doesn't stop as long as we have bandwith.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#190

Post by DiogenesKynikos »

mLuby wrote: post #2

And yet the stock market is already recovering. I guess "worst crisis since Great Depression" has been priced in?

Or it's priced in the Federal Reserve buying up trillions of dollars in junk debt: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-09/fed-unlea....
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