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Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

bbc.co.uk

141–150 of 227 posts

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#141
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s so strange to me is how much trust is being placed in these test results. Across the country doctors are telling people they can’t test people so stay home in self quarantine until you have difficulty breathing. Consider, 1/2 of all tests in New Jersey have been positive, nationwide it’s 1/4th for a disease that shares many symptoms with the flu. While the official infection rate might have more or less stabil…

I don’t understand the obsession with testing. Ok, if we are doing random samples or antibody tests, then I agree it’s important so we can understand the true prevalence and mortality rate. But that’s not what we are doing right now. Otherwise, it just seems like a political exercise to boost the numbers and cause panic. If you’re symptomatic, is the best course of action really to leave your house for a test? It see…

Many people are infectious without symptoms, others have yet to show significant symptoms. So to actually stop the spread you need to discover these people and quarantine them. South Korea very effectively used this policy and they turned a significant outbreak to near total containment. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_S...

Going from a peak of 1,062 cases per day to 27 yesterday is huge.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market is pricing in a smooth recovery without a second wave of infection. It is not pricing in how much this will affect the poor, due to a cultural and class disconnect. I bet 50% of residential renters don’t pay rent for May. It seems we’re wildly overextended, but I booked a loss on some short-term puts today so maybe my judgement isn’t the best. I’m still holding longer dated puts because I think we go down,…

Just hearing Powell, members of the Fed and the talking heads in CNBC makes me think they live in some sort of crazy bubble. To think we can bounce back immediately is absolutely bonkers. Half my tenants can’t pay the rent the next few months, some have lost their jobs, layoffs are now happening in non-consumer industries and software spend is mostly halted. Everyone will be cautious in traveling to public venues, le…

They don't think we can bounce back, but they sure as hell WANT us to. Why? The market goes up and they profit. Look at what motivates people and then the things they say start to make a lot more sense.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#143

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

My main concern is: will we actually learn anything from this experience? We have had a couple of small scale trial runs over the past two decades. We got through those fine, but never considered what would happen if the spread got out of hand.

I'm not going to pretend to be innocent here. It doesn't take an expert in infectious diseases or economics to at least prepare themselves and their family. There are also decisions that we make collectively, though not institutionally, that are dubious. Some people are lucky in that their role in society is important enough that they are valuable in this crisis. Others will more-or-less have their value to society restored as soon as this is over. Then there are the people who's social value depends upon economic prosperity. Those people are going to be hit the hardest.

Then there are the institutional decisions. Some of those are the craziest. Organizations to handle domestic violence, homelessness, mental illness, etc. were scraping by in good times. Transient labor is not an issue in itself, reliance upon it is. While I'm guessing that your reference to transient labor refers to seasonal foreign workers from the context, something similar has been created in local job markets. Many people are working several jobs simply to make ends meet. They cannot provide their own safety net in the case of any crisis (personal, national, or global). In the worse of cases, they are providing a vector for the spread of disease (e.g. hospital and nursing home employees working at several facilities).

On top of all of that, we have the government. I'm not talking about politicians here. They are certainly part of the problem when the don't listen to their own experts, undermine them, or simply get rid of those they don't agree with. I am talking about the civil service. These are the people who provide continuity and should be doing comprehensive planning for different scenarios. (Not to mention ensuring that government services can handle emergencies.) What I have been seeing are a slew of half baked solutions that reflect politician's distorted world view that are, at best, addressed after reality is exposed to them.

My apologies for the rant. Part of the reason for it is that I think the wealthier nations will pull through this, but we could have done a lot better if we went into it prepared.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#144
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The largest study so far to look at mortality among coronavirus patients on ventilators was done by the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre in London. It found that among 98 ventilated patients in the U.K., just 33 were discharged alive. The numbers from a study of Wuhan, China, are even grimmer. Only 3 of 22 ventilated patients survived" [0]. [0]: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/02/826…

Cuomo has already said this iirc; most people who go on a ventilator don't come off of it alive. That doesn't make it pointless to even have ventilators though, a 40% survival rate is certainly better than a 0% survival rate for those who need a ventilator.

Do they die because or inspite of the ventilators?

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#145
post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand the obsession with testing. Ok, if we are doing random samples or antibody tests, then I agree it’s important so we can understand the true prevalence and mortality rate. But that’s not what we are doing right now. Otherwise, it just seems like a political exercise to boost the numbers and cause panic. If you’re symptomatic, is the best course of action really to leave your house for a test? It see…

Many people are infectious without symptoms, others have yet to show significant symptoms. So to actually stop the spread you need to discover these people and quarantine them. South Korea very effectively used this policy and they turned a significant outbreak to near total containment. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_S... Going from a peak of 1,062 cases per day to 27 yesterday is huge.

Or, if you just quarantine everybody (hence the advice to stay the hell home and assume you have it), then the curve flattens. You don't need a test to stay home.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you want to speculate on this? All evidence is strongly against what you are proposing. It would without doubt lead to more deaths. Why would anyone even consider the course of action you are proposing? I've already had people close to me die. You should think some more and be able to provide a reasoned argument or be quiet until you can on this.

Universal mask wearing is part of the approach they have taken in South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore and it seems to have largely worked in those places. The whole "masks don't work" line being pushed by the US government and the media seems to be about keeping people from buying masks that are needed in the hospitals. In the process they are sort of lying to people about the effectiveness of mask wearing as a piece…

No! Mask wearing is definitely not a thing in singapore. Only on 3rd april did the singapore government stop discouraging mask wearing. Less than half the people still out and about now wear masks.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#148
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s evidence the lockdowns are actually REDUCING other deaths, such as from car accidents, air pollution or violent crimes: https://thehill.com/changing-america/resilience/smart-cities... https://news.slashdot.org/story/20/03/15/2024248/will-corona...

I wonder how that works? Those at risk of death from air pollution are surely in a risk group that wouldn’t do well with covid.

Without a lockdown, I imagine asthmatics and the like would be dying A LOT more

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#149

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

> starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun)

Is there any evidence that this could happen? I live in a small Northern European country and there have been absolutely no shortages of TP or food items here. Even at peak toilet paper demand, when I went to the supermarket one brand was sold out, but there were plenty of other brands available - the same happens if they have a promotion, so maybe it was just a coincidence.

It seems that most of these issues are caused by supply chain problems, not a lack of available food, and the bigger a country, the harder the impact is felt.

A lot of the common produce items are grown locally, it's mostly out-of-season (tomatoes) and more exotic fruits (mandarins, avocados) that are shipped from the other side of Europe or Africa. Almost all meat, dairy and grain items are produced locally. If we were only able to eat food grown within our country, I don't think we would be faced with mass starvation.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am sure a lot of politicians are struggling with this decision right now.

Not really. Consensus from almost all countries is that you need to quarantine and shut down the economy in order to beat this. Those that believed that they could get around this with herd immunity are either paying a huge price (UK) or about to (Sweden). And those politicians that took hard measures actually have been rewarded (Australia) and those that didn't punished (UK, US).

You conveniently ignore Korea and Taiwan, where the curve has been flattened without shutting down the economy or closing "non-essential" businesses.
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