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Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#101

Post by aianus »

secondo wrote: post #92
aianus wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMF says 500 million people worldwide who were out of poverty will or have returned to poverty because of the recession. IMF poverty line is Edit: it was Oxfam that published the report to inform the IMF and World Bank at their meeting next week

IMF says 500 million people worldwide who were out of poverty will or have returned to poverty because of the recession. It's a relevant perspective, but I can't seem to find any source for IMF claiming that. Do you have one or are you referring to research publicized by Oxfam[1]? [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52211206

You are correct, I apologize, it says that Oxfam published the report ahead of an upcoming IMF meeting.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#102

Post by jameslevy »

blhack wrote: post #27
baby wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The increase we’ve seen in the last two weeks make zero sense to me. It’s almost making me lose trust in the market as I feel like it’s rigged. We’re in a complete state of unknown, nobody knows when this will be over, unemployment raises like crazy, the US now realizes that coronavirus is hitting them the hardest...

The increase in the last two weeks is because it's becoming obvious that: 1) The US's response to this was competent. 2) The measures put in place are working. 3) The projections are improving substantially . 4) The time horizon is shrinking. 5) We are starting to understand how to treat this. (+ "in the us"). Two weeks ago we were looking at places like Italy, and extrapolating that the US could see deaths in the mi…

Back in February, there were a handful of cases popping up here and there. And then growing in each hotspot from 5 to 10 to 20, etc. It didn't take long for things to get out of control.

Without some major game-changer in the next two months, its hard to see a reason why the same thing won't just happen again. Hopefully over the summer it's not as contagious due to hot weather.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#103

Post by pmorici »

NomDePlum wrote: post #79
jdc wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't help but think we could close a lot less shops if everyone wore (even sub-N95) masks

So you want to speculate on this? All evidence is strongly against what you are proposing. It would without doubt lead to more deaths. Why would anyone even consider the course of action you are proposing? I've already had people close to me die. You should think some more and be able to provide a reasoned argument or be quiet until you can on this.

Universal mask wearing is part of the approach they have taken in South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore and it seems to have largely worked in those places.

The whole "masks don't work" line being pushed by the US government and the media seems to be about keeping people from buying masks that are needed in the hospitals. In the process they are sort of lying to people about the effectiveness of mask wearing as a piece of overall strategy.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#104

Post by jackcosgrove »

pmoriarty wrote: post #73
redis_mlc wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It already happened. The West will be litigating unpaid rent, etc. for the next decade since there aren't enough court rooms. What we fundamentally got wrong is that ventilators don't work in 66% - 90% of cases, so "flattening the curve" was largely pointless and distracted leaders from low-tech solutions like quarantine centers and palliative care. We should have learned that in 2002 from SARS-1, but nobody even see…

"What we fundamentally got wrong is that ventilators don't work in 66% - 90% of cases, so "flattening the curve" was largely pointless and distracted leaders from low-tech solutions like quarantine centers and palliative care." It's far from pointless. Flattening the curve means a lot fewer people get sick all at once. That buys time for treatments and vaccines to be developed. It's also not nearly as overwhelming to…

Flattening the curve is justified to not overwhelm medical facilities, but the new coronavirus is so infectious I doubt we'll develop a vaccine before we achieve herd immunity.

A lockdown until we develop a vaccine is economically impossible, as it's estimated to take at least a year. A vaccine will be useful for next year's coronavirus.

Thankfully the actual death rate is lower than what the models projected. Antibody testing will do a lot to dispel the fog of war surrounding this issue.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#105

Post by NomDePlum »

hnaccy wrote: post #97
NomDePlum wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you want to speculate on this? All evidence is strongly against what you are proposing. It would without doubt lead to more deaths. Why would anyone even consider the course of action you are proposing? I've already had people close to me die. You should think some more and be able to provide a reasoned argument or be quiet until you can on this.

Taiwan seems to have done it. Compare NYC and Taipai public transit during virus it's stark: https://i.redd.it/ufezdm2hjul41.jpg https://www.thenation.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/commute...

Citation please.

That has certainly not been true of China, S.Korea, NZ, Germany, Australia or other countries that have successfully followed a suppression strategy.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#106

Post by com2kid »

blhack wrote: post #43
andbberger wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US's response could not be described as anything even approaching competent. This is still just getting started. Let's check back in a few months and see how this comment has aged...

What should the US have done that other countries are doing? We closed travel early, we started closing businesses early, and we hold daily press conferences with multiple medical and financial experts that are directly informing the entire population of what measures they should be taking. edit: it seems like the general response to "what should we have done" is "the federal government should have shut down travel/b…

Competent would have been starting production of masks and ventilators in January, and closing borders at the same time, and mandating mask wearing in public in early February.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#107

Post by herval »

mrfusion wrote: post #96
DVassallo wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Covid-19 has a non-negligible chance of killing a billion people. When there's risk of ruin, cost-benefit analysis doesn't make sense anymore. (Russian roulette is never worth playing, regardless of the payoff.) Our actions to avoid covid-19 need to be judged on what could happen, not on what actually happens. You get it wrong once, and we disappear.

It’s has a fatality rate of 1/7? Be reasonable man.

If untreated, the fatality rate goes up. I imagine OPs figure is assuming widespread contagion and the average 20% hospitalization needed, which would translate to A LOT more dead people. We won’t know the actual death rate after the fact, of course, or how it compares in places where health care is saturated vs not. But that figure isn’t/wasn’t entirely impossible?

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#108

Post by DVassallo »

mrfusion wrote: post #96
DVassallo wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Covid-19 has a non-negligible chance of killing a billion people. When there's risk of ruin, cost-benefit analysis doesn't make sense anymore. (Russian roulette is never worth playing, regardless of the payoff.) Our actions to avoid covid-19 need to be judged on what could happen, not on what actually happens. You get it wrong once, and we disappear.

It’s has a fatality rate of 1/7? Be reasonable man.

1. 20% require hospitalization. Hospital capacity is limited.

2. It's questionable whether we can become immune to it. We might keep getting re-infected.

3. It causes permanent lung damage in some patients. Makes re-infection even more lethal.

4. There's a chance that animals can catch it and become a reservoir for it. Imagine if every dog, cat, and pigeon in the world is infected with it, but doesn't die from it.

Yes, it's low probability. But it's not zero. And it's not negligible either.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#109

Post by andbberger »

TechBro8615 wrote: post #93
andbberger wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US's response could not be described as anything even approaching competent. This is still just getting started. Let's check back in a few months and see how this comment has aged...

This is an emotionally charged political comment. If you only watch CNN and read the NYT, you might think this. But if you look at the curve, and per-capita death numbers, the US seems to be doing a good job managing the crisis relative to its size. Has anyone in the US died because they didn’t have a ventilator? Not that I’m aware of. Washington State is already on the downslope. The history books will be very kind…

Yes indeed yours is an emotionally charged political comment, thanks for prefacing it with the warning.

NY has started splitting ventilators.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#110

Post by ip26 »

magicsmoke wrote: post #8
galacticaactual wrote: post #3

How a pandemic of this nature was not planned for, war gamed, and drilled until we could gain SOME intuition as to the optimal actions and effects countries should take to avoid economic meltdown while doing the vulnerable population right is beyond me. The U.N. was created to promulgate this kind of cooperation, and here it has utterly failed.

The UN was created so countries like the US and USSR could have a forum to talk with each other and avoid nuking the entire world. How well do you think the UN would have helped those two cold war superpowers coordinate on a global pandemic? What you're looking for is a world government, not an international forum.

Or at least some kind of world health authority, e.g. a WHO with teeth. Don't have to have the whole world government part.
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