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I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

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Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is part of the reason we are / were paid so much recently. Hardly any young people went into technology from dot-com until around 12 or so (unless they were passionate about it), precisely because everyone was telling kids that programming was so easily outsourced that you'll never make money at it. There's a distinct dips in the number of 30-40 year olds in technology. There are plenty of older people, and ther…

$15/hr at mine, although if I include freelancing prior to that it's probably closer to $8. It's kind of nice. My floor is so incredibly low that the "scary times" don't look so scary. CS was a contrarian career bet in the few years after dotcom; you didn't do it if you were listening to the wise old men and wanted a good paying job. Realizing that opportunity -- or, more commonly, doing what you wanted to and not wo…

I think it's true. Around 2010 is when CS got hot again.

A few years ago, we interviewed some new graduates. I couldn't believe how smart they were. They seemed a lot smarter than I was when I graduated. Heck, they seemed smarter than me right now. There are definitely a ton of highly qualified, recent grads these days.

I think the main thing we ( as in our generation of late 30's to 40's) have to worry about these days is ageism. We might become obsolete quick if businesses think the new, smart, cheaper kids can replace us aging ones.

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#302
post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dev Bootcamp popularized rails bootcamps, and they weren't even founded until 2012. The bootcamp "scene" definitely wasn't around in 2008.

Maybe they weren't called bootcamps, but these short webdev training courses have been around since the late 1990s.

The classes/courses prior to Dev Bootcamp et al. were vastly different and not comparable to current programs, and certainly did not have even close to the number of students/customers.

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#303
post #201

Programming for the web is my primary career. I first got into it late 1997. I am astonished at how incompetent it is. The fact the OP made a career out of it and made some money is hardly amazing. For the level of talent required contrasted against the average compensation I am surprised not everybody is trying it. You too could be earning 6 figures in a low cost of living economy after completing a boot camp and 2…

The tech industry is a class-, gender-, and race-biased inter-generational wealth transfer scheme masquerading as an industry. Past a post of base-level competency, and excluding strategy-level technical roles, employment and compensation is based on identity and not proficiency. It's the same as with industry labor in the last half of the 20th century. Every person who retired with a pension was not an unequivocal v…

>No one wants to admit that they're mere cogs, compensated for not gumming up the money machine.

Reality is unpleasant so people are in denial. Some peasants here down voted you. I just up voted you.

- another peasant

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not necessarily. A prerequisite for winning any game is showing up. Those who show up most often are therefore more likely to win. Someone who practices a skill for 20 hours a week for a year will have had 1040 hours of practice vs 258 hours of practice for someone who practices 5 hours a week, and that linear increase in time will likely produce an exponential increase in skill as knowledge builds on itself. Assumin…

Assuming we have defined "success" and the person A will multiply their chance of success by 2 after each try. That leaves almost zero chances of success. Success, however we choose to define it, is in large part a result of luck. Skill, to a much lesser degree.

I honestly don't know how people who attribute everything to luck even manage to exist in the world.

Do you just sit at home staring at the wall waiting for luck to happen to you? What is the point of doing anything if all results only come from blind luck?

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#305

I started during the 2008 recession. I think the people who hurt the most back then were the people who'd just attended 6 week Ruby on Rails bootcamps and gotten 70k/year jobs (which was a cliche at the time). Suddenly, that was no longer realistic. And even among them, the passionate people found a way. I got into tech with no education during the recession just on psychotic passion alone. I was working at but hacki…

In 2015, my first software job paid 95k and it wasn't a small firm. It was a large, publicly traded software company. It's possible salaries could plateau in this industry. You'll "make it" but you won't be making bank like the unprecented growth in stock valuations that occurred in the 2000s and 2010s. Silicon Valley won't be minting as many millionaires as it did in those decades.

I think the 2000's were a bust for most people. It was the proverbial lost decade. We had the dot-com crash, followed by 9/11, a short recovery, then the GFC a few short years later. It wasn't until 2013 or so that things got back to positive. If you adjust for inflation, it's even worse. Play around with https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My college had a 30k/year tuition. 4 years of that comes out to 120k. Your figure assumes >70% of costs are paid without debt. 30k/year is common now for an undergraduate degree from a state school with dorm.

1. 30k/year is REALLY high for tuition. Most state flagships -- which are some of the best universities in the entire world -- aren't that expensive. UIUC, definitely one of the best CS departments in the world, has tuition that's about half that per year [1]. And that's a top-tier state flagship research university; a bit of an overkill for any but the most ambitious (phd or md or jd or elite co.)-bound students. Th…

> 1. 30k/year is REALLY high for tuition. Most state flagships -- which are some of the best universities in the entire world -- aren't that expensive.

So what? Prestigious schools are notoriously egalitarian toward the students. If you get accepted to Cal Tech, you are guaranteed to be subsidized. Nobody "can't afford" to go to Cal Tech, but there are people who don't test well enough.

> 2. Most private universities do have sticker prices in that range, but a) why go non-elite private

Because most people aren't even average collegiate level intelligence.

> 3. It's definitely possible to make >$10K each year while doing university full time.

Not sure what this is supposed to say, but surviving is hard out there. Especially around any school (public or private). Most people in massive debt, try to work it off.

This whole post seems a little holier than thou. Least of which is the perspective that people could (or would) attend "best universities", which is more than a little presumptuous. This debt hole is so common it appears in US media from TV (eg Grey's Anatomy, Devs, etc) to the newest films.

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#307
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am hopeful we can suppress this disease before herd immunity develops in cities. But, once that happens they stop acting like dense areas in terms of disease spread. It’s really a question of regional R factors under various levels of social distancing, population, and herd imminuty.

I have a pet theory that what we're essentially doing is running a huge experiment where we select for the least dangerous strains of the coronavirus. People who get a mild flu or no symptoms at all are less well quarantined and are significantly more likely to pass it on to other people. People who get the worst symptoms are tightly quarantined in hospital, reducing their chances of passing on the worst forms of the…

The Spanish flu was selected for extra virulence, because it started during a war and the sickest soldiers were sent back from the front to hospitals. Usually when people get sick, they isolate themselves, so the weakest forms spread.

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#308

Programming for the web is my primary career. I first got into it late 1997. I am astonished at how incompetent it is. The fact the OP made a career out of it and made some money is hardly amazing. For the level of talent required contrasted against the average compensation I am surprised not everybody is trying it. You too could be earning 6 figures in a low cost of living economy after completing a boot camp and 2…

I'm not highly experienced in this realm but I sometimes wonder if the liability in our industry is misaligned which may cause many of these symptoms. When a company faces a huge security breach due to negligence, who pays the cost? I've known many engineers rightfully pointing out necessary work to prevent security issues that have to negotiate with product owners and business stakeholders to find time to perform su…

That's all true but I don't think it explains the effect GP is talking about.

Security aside, I think it just comes down to what the business incentives are for different approaches to software development. To develop good software you need small teams of experts with domain knowledge and very strong programming skills. But good software isn't the only kind of profitable software.

A lot of big businesses are working with multipliers on the benefit side that eclipse the factors on the cost side. If you don't have a particular piece of software 'X', where X is something that would generate revenue multiplied across a really large customer base, then almost any strategy that produces X is going to be a strong one. From a business perspective it's not going to make any difference if you hire a 5-man black team to pump out the perfect bit of software or 150 cheap consultants to hack together a giant pile of shit. The former might make you $150M instead of $120M, but nobody is going to have stats on the path not taken to compare to in retrospect, so there's roughly zero market pressure to develop software properly.

Then there's two factors that explain why businesses don't take the better approach. The first is that every big business I've worked for has had layers of management and departments, where budgets are allocated artificially and aren't perfectly tied to results like they would in a pure software business with flat management that's reinvesting profits into their flagship product. That creates an environment where the objectives for middle management aren't perfectly tied to the objectives for the business (e.g. increasing their team's head count at the expense of their software).

The second is that having a larger team mitigates risk. If you put together a small team of crack developers to build a perfect product there's somewhat of a chance that they fail. Things like turnover and personal circumstances affect you a lot more. The swarm of average contractors doesn't have as big of an upside, but they're much more likely to get you to 80% of the way there, so if that's indistinguishable to a perfect solution (as above) then there's this constant natural pressure to overhire and reduce the quality of the team to the lowest common denominator. Big businesses love treating their devs as cogs, even if all the literature on the engineering side suggests that that approach doesn't work.

Basically, I don't think it's just a case of 'managers are idiots and don't know how to build good software', businesses build crap software because it works and it's profitable. But it also creates constant opportunities for startups to eat their lunch, and the worse the economy gets, the better your software has to be (because the cost side of the equation starts to matter more).

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#309

You graduated in one of the most well paid, expanding industry of the last 40 years and made it. Excellent.

Would you please stop posting snark and flamebait to HN? You've been doing it for a long time, unfortunately. It breaks the site guidelines and destroys the intended spirit of this place, which is curious conversation.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#310
post #181
post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tourism and travel will resurge in 2021, when people who missed this year's vacation (i.e. everyone) will book for the next summer.

> "missed this year's vacation (i.e. everyone)" How many people in the US do you think take vacations every year? 10 million filed for unemployment benefits in the last 2 weeks. They wont' be champing at the bit to spend money on luxuries anytime soon.

lol people are not rational spenders. Once they begin receiving any sort of stable income, they will bank on receiving it and splurge.

Which is a good thing for the rest of, ironically and economically.

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