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I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

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Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#241

Post by scottLobster »

andreilys wrote: post #234
seisvelas wrote: post #207

I started during the 2008 recession. I think the people who hurt the most back then were the people who'd just attended 6 week Ruby on Rails bootcamps and gotten 70k/year jobs (which was a cliche at the time). Suddenly, that was no longer realistic. And even among them, the passionate people found a way. I got into tech with no education during the recession just on psychotic passion alone. I was working at but hacki…

“ I intuit that if you are insanely dedicated enough the universe has a weird appreciation for that kind of thing, and eventually throws you a bone. I know it's wrong and irrational but everytime I've tried that it's worked” Also known as survivorship bias.

Not necessarily. A prerequisite for winning any game is showing up. Those who show up most often are therefore more likely to win.

Someone who practices a skill for 20 hours a week for a year will have had 1040 hours of practice vs 258 hours of practice for someone who practices 5 hours a week, and that linear increase in time will likely produce an exponential increase in skill as knowledge builds on itself. Assuming there's a market for the skill, the odds of success in that market will also go up exponentially. And if demand shrinks (ie economic recession) that filters out the 5-hours-a-week people.

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#242

Post by JMTQp8lwXL »

seisvelas wrote: post #207

I started during the 2008 recession. I think the people who hurt the most back then were the people who'd just attended 6 week Ruby on Rails bootcamps and gotten 70k/year jobs (which was a cliche at the time). Suddenly, that was no longer realistic. And even among them, the passionate people found a way. I got into tech with no education during the recession just on psychotic passion alone. I was working at but hacki…

In 2015, my first software job paid 95k and it wasn't a small firm. It was a large, publicly traded software company. It's possible salaries could plateau in this industry. You'll "make it" but you won't be making bank like the unprecented growth in stock valuations that occurred in the 2000s and 2010s. Silicon Valley won't be minting as many millionaires as it did in those decades.

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#244

Post by BoorishBears »

cushychicken wrote: post #226
BoorishBears wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that’s kind of my point though. > There are ups, there are downs. Keep calm, and carry on. That’s pretty much the title and subheading The author’s story ends up not really adding any meat to that statement though. They delve into their own story and I wouldn’t say there were any ultra specific Hail Mary moments that make it inapplicable to others (like people who’s stories are “I was sad then I won the lotte…

The author’s story ends up not really adding any meat to that statement though. Yeah, but it sure helps their SEO rankings. XD

Yeah, actually I think that’s what was so weird

It’s like high-effort clickbait, which is an oxymoron of sorts

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#245

Post by techopoly »

andreilys wrote: post #234
seisvelas wrote: post #207

I started during the 2008 recession. I think the people who hurt the most back then were the people who'd just attended 6 week Ruby on Rails bootcamps and gotten 70k/year jobs (which was a cliche at the time). Suddenly, that was no longer realistic. And even among them, the passionate people found a way. I got into tech with no education during the recession just on psychotic passion alone. I was working at but hacki…

“ I intuit that if you are insanely dedicated enough the universe has a weird appreciation for that kind of thing, and eventually throws you a bone. I know it's wrong and irrational but everytime I've tried that it's worked” Also known as survivorship bias.

Just because there's possibly some survivorship bias in their viewpoint doesn't mean their statement is automatically false.

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#246

Post by DmitryOlshansky »

andreilys wrote: post #234
seisvelas wrote: post #207

I started during the 2008 recession. I think the people who hurt the most back then were the people who'd just attended 6 week Ruby on Rails bootcamps and gotten 70k/year jobs (which was a cliche at the time). Suddenly, that was no longer realistic. And even among them, the passionate people found a way. I got into tech with no education during the recession just on psychotic passion alone. I was working at but hacki…

“ I intuit that if you are insanely dedicated enough the universe has a weird appreciation for that kind of thing, and eventually throws you a bone. I know it's wrong and irrational but everytime I've tried that it's worked” Also known as survivorship bias.

Or rather the old adege of:

“The luck favors the prepared”

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#247

Post by seattle_spring »

seisvelas wrote: post #207

I started during the 2008 recession. I think the people who hurt the most back then were the people who'd just attended 6 week Ruby on Rails bootcamps and gotten 70k/year jobs (which was a cliche at the time). Suddenly, that was no longer realistic. And even among them, the passionate people found a way. I got into tech with no education during the recession just on psychotic passion alone. I was working at but hacki…

Dev Bootcamp popularized rails bootcamps, and they weren't even founded until 2012. The bootcamp "scene" definitely wasn't around in 2008.

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#248

Post by lalaithion »

dmd wrote: post #221
__s wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I intuit that if you are insanely dedicated enough the universe has a weird appreciation for that kind of thing, and eventually throws you a bone. I know it's wrong and irrational but everytime I've tried that it's worked, so there's some anecdotal personal truth. I've experienced this too, & entered the profession in 2011 without completing post secondary Essentially I believe it comes down to the fact that if you…

> if you take a 0.3% chance every day, you'll land it once a year. "actualllyyy" you've got a 2 in 3 chance of landing it each year. 1-((1-(0.3/100))^365) = 0.66 EDIT: stop upvoting me, he's right. The question isn't "what is the probability of at least one success in a year", but rather "how many trials, on average, does it take to get one success" - and the answer to THAT is in fact 333, from the geometric distribu…

But you've also got a 20% chance of landing it twice and a 7% chance of landing it three times and a 2% chance of landing it four times and so, on average, you'll land it every 333 days.

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#249

Post by dmd »

socketnaut wrote: post #230
dmd wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if you take a 0.3% chance every day, you'll land it once a year. "actualllyyy" you've got a 2 in 3 chance of landing it each year. 1-((1-(0.3/100))^365) = 0.66 EDIT: stop upvoting me, he's right. The question isn't "what is the probability of at least one success in a year", but rather "how many trials, on average, does it take to get one success" - and the answer to THAT is in fact 333, from the geometric distribu…

“actualllllyyyyy” he’s saying something different. If you take a 0.3% chance for N days where N is large, you’ll land it 0.003N times, or once every ~333 days. The chance of landing it within any particular window of K days is a different concept (which you showed how to reason about).

You're right! Edited my comment.

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#250

Post by mcamaj »

DmitryOlshansky wrote: post #246
andreilys wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“ I intuit that if you are insanely dedicated enough the universe has a weird appreciation for that kind of thing, and eventually throws you a bone. I know it's wrong and irrational but everytime I've tried that it's worked” Also known as survivorship bias.

Or rather the old adege of: “The luck favors the prepared”

or the ones that never give up
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