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The leading cause of death in the US on Apr 6 was Covid-19

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Re: The leading cause of death in the US on Apr 6 was Covid-19

#141

Post by roenxi »

cesarb wrote: post #86
roenxi wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a sense they might be rational; anyone under 50 has a 95% of being out of action for a week or two then getting back up unaided. That is much less punishing for them than the lockdown unless they are the unlucky 1 in 20. Not prudent, but about the same level of risk assessment people use when talking on mobiles while driving. One of the major issues is the Boomers are hitting that delicate age where things start t…

> anyone under 50 has a 95% of being out of action for a week or two then getting back up unaided. Now consider a home with four people under 50. The chance of someone in that home getting unlucky is then around 1 in 5. There is only a 81% chance of all four "being out of action for a week or two then getting back up unaided".

It is a mystery to me why anyone downvoted you. Yep; exactly so. There are people on the edge of an economic disaster where 80% odds of being fine are substantially better than the economic stresses they are being put under. Someone without a good social network could be facing a risk of actually starving to death if they lose their job and all local businesses shut down in line with the quarantine. The disruptions happening are profound.

I'm cautious and I'm not about to venture out of my apartment until we all know what is going on, but the data we have so far isn't a compelling story that would convince everyone.

Re: The leading cause of death in the US on Apr 6 was Covid-19

#142

Post by iso1631 »

thu2111 wrote: post #137
iso1631 wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Are mortality statistics available to that sort of granularity and speed To answer my own question, yes https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-all-cause-mo... I love gov.uk Week 9 commences March 2nd (I'm assuming the weeks are the same as ISO weeks) Week | Total dead(E+W) | Covid (UK) | Excess mortality 8 Feb24-Mar1 | 10,841 | 0 | ... 9 Mar 2-8 | 10,816 | 3 | no 10 Mar 9-15 | 10,895 | 32 | no 11 Mar 16-22…

Ah great find. I was looking for UK hospital admissions data. That's pretty shocking. Pneumonia and respiratory has hardly moved (where is the wave???) yet there's a huge fall in emergency cardiac patients. That's worrying. It implies people having heart attacks are choosing not to go to hospital fast enough, even though they could.

I'm assuming that half those attendances aren't because of heart attacks, but are to do with routine follow up appointments?

Re: The leading cause of death in the US on Apr 6 was Covid-19

#143

Post by verytrivial »

2008guy wrote: post #133
verytrivial wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think hospitals should maintain enough capacity to handle influx. Ooo, you're sooooo close to understanding the problem. Keep at it!

You don’t understand anything, twit.

How much intensive care capacity do you think is available? And how much intensive care load would unmitigated covid-19 progression consume? The (wild) disparity between these numbers is the entirety of current crisis, but you seem to treat it as just another factor.

Re: The leading cause of death in the US on Apr 6 was Covid-19

#144

Post by verytrivial »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #96
2008guy wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My friend, take the number of people who end up dying after herd immunity and compare it to the population that it infected. If it’s more than a drop in the proverbial bucket, then please excuse me.

I see there's no use in arguing, as the same pointless statement gets parroted back each time. This disease is now the #1 cause of death in America. Nothing like a trifling total; nothing like a drop; nothing like an ignorable fraction. Very, very significant.

Unless and until 2008guy offers up his extended network of friends and family to be consumed by the disease, I think it's safe to assume moral reasoning isn't his/her forte.

Re: The leading cause of death in the US on Apr 6 was Covid-19

#145

Post by thu2111 »

iso1631 wrote: post #142
thu2111 wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah great find. I was looking for UK hospital admissions data. That's pretty shocking. Pneumonia and respiratory has hardly moved (where is the wave???) yet there's a huge fall in emergency cardiac patients. That's worrying. It implies people having heart attacks are choosing not to go to hospital fast enough, even though they could.

I'm assuming that half those attendances aren't because of heart attacks, but are to do with routine follow up appointments?

Isn't this data for emergency admissions only?

Re: The leading cause of death in the US on Apr 6 was Covid-19

#146

Post by 2008guy »

verytrivial wrote: post #143
2008guy wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don’t understand anything, twit.

How much intensive care capacity do you think is available? And how much intensive care load would unmitigated covid-19 progression consume? The (wild) disparity between these numbers is the entirety of current crisis, but you seem to treat it as just another factor.

I’m not even sure if this would parse as legitimate English. What?

And in response to your other recent comment, my entire family has been “consumed” (you idiot) by one disease or another. I am the only one left. Nobody was hysteric when they died. People were apathetic. It’s difficult to sympathize with people’s hysteria when just a month ago they were apathetic in the face of countless lives lost to other preventable diseases even though there were easy prevention methods available. Difficult to sympathize with the hysteric mob when a month ago I watched them stream from the back doors of bars, staggering into their vehicles and driving off - the same drive of stupidity that fuels the hysteria and apparently your comments.

Re: The leading cause of death in the US on Apr 6 was Covid-19

#147

Post by iso1631 »

thu2111 wrote: post #145
iso1631 wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm assuming that half those attendances aren't because of heart attacks, but are to do with routine follow up appointments?

Isn't this data for emergency admissions only?

True, "Emergency departments"

https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/369/bmj.m1406.full.pdf

People are ignoring stroke symptoms and failing to ring 999 because they fear being a burden on the NHS in England duringthe covid-19 pandemic, the national clinical director for stroke has warned. Deb Lowe, consultant stroke physician at Wirral University Teaching Hospital, said that doctors across the country were seeing “quite striking reductions” in the number of people coming into hospital with symptoms of stroke. She said, “It appears that people aren’t seeking emergency help or going to hospital when they suspect a stroke, possibly due to fear of the virus or not wanting to be a burden on the NHS.”

Re: The leading cause of death in the US on Apr 6 was Covid-19

#148

Post by 75dvtwin »

CDC guidelines appear to ask medical professional, to over-report COVID as a cause of death, if there is reasonable suspicion, but not a definite diagnosis.

I am not sure if this right/wrong, and how different it is from guidelines relating, to say, flu as a cause of death.

> "... In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.” In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID–19 infection was likely. However, please note that testing for COVID–19 should be conducted whenever possible. ..." [1]

As an hypothetical example, if a deceased was in a contact with covid-positive person, but the deceased was not tested for Covid, should the cause of death be noted as 'presumed covid-19'?

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pd

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