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US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

cnbc.com

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Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#91

Post by ceejayoz »

sjg007 wrote: post #63
strict9 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is definitely much higher. Many states' unemployment systems are woefully inadequate. Florida (but probably other states too) intentionally made the unemployment claims system painful/impossible to navigate: > “It wasn’t about saving money. It was about making it harder for people to get benefits or keep benefits so that the unemployment numbers were low to give the governor something to brag about.” https://www.p…

Maybe Floridians should vote in their best interest then..

Floridians are trying.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Florida_Amendment_4

The legislature and Governor took a look at the 65% vote and went "nah", though, and put a bunch of new obstacles in place to override the voters.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#92

Post by _curious_ »

streetcat1 wrote: post #47

According to my calculation, minimum wage employees can now get twice in unemployment benefits (for at least 4 months) than his/her original wage. So based on that, even if the economy is open, I failed to see what would incentivize people to return to work.

"...I failed to see what would incentivize people to return to work." If and as long as this maintains, they will not be. And from there, they will have re-adjusted to getting paid just as much (perhaps more) than they did before while now doing next to nothing.

And that will bare a most interesting crossroads in America - finally and fully stripped of its collective values, work ethics and self reliance. Godspeed.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#93

Post by IAmEveryone »

_curious_ wrote: post #77
wjossey wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least in tech, there have been waves upon waves of layoffs the last two weeks. Those jobs won’t instantly come back, even when the economy recovers. Beyond tech, many small business will never reopen. Their suppliers will now be over staffed, and need to lay-off. The suppliers of their suppliers will see a reduction in their order volume, and will do layoffs. Etc, etc. I’m not an economist, but it doesn’t take an…

Honestly, I put more faith in a random internet person sharing their opinion on HN using a bit of logic, reason and current reality than I would someone who actually considered themselves to be an "economist" (which btw fully deserves air quotes whenever saying outloud).

I’m somewhat certain that viewpoint isn’t entirely original to the fifteen people posting it in this thread, but is fairly common among actual economists and has come to prominence precisely because there are still quite a few serious publishers recognizing expertise and connecting it to the public.

It’s the professional media personalities impersonating economists based on their 30-year old mail-order PhDs that give the profession a bad name. Someone giving stock tips on their daily talk radio program is not an economist, almost by definition (the efficient market hypothesis is usually taught in the first semester)

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#94

Post by _curious_ »

throwanem wrote: post #62
streetcat1 wrote: post #47

According to my calculation, minimum wage employees can now get twice in unemployment benefits (for at least 4 months) than his/her original wage. So based on that, even if the economy is open, I failed to see what would incentivize people to return to work.

Unemployment insurance payout per month is usually capped based on what you made at the job you had before you went on it. One assumes that will again be the case once the current crisis is considered to have ended. Unemployment insurance payouts are also time-bound. You don't go on unemployment and stay on it indefinitely; after a few months, barring a rare and hard-to-obtain extension, the benefit ends.

"One assumes that will again be the case once the current crisis is considered to have ended." Let one not assume?

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#95

Post by chasd00 »

throwanem wrote: post #70
chasd00 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what's happening is the result of a medical emergency and not the economy. There's no financial reason or economic reason the job losses are so high. It's still there, the demand is still there, we artificially halted the economy and that generated the job loss. It's certainly not an on/off situation but the job demand is still there and we can get back to work.

This concept of an economy as some sort of Platonic ideal, disconnected from the processes of the polity in which it exists, is very odd to me. It seems like having your heart stop and saying it isn't a "real" emergency, because the organs are all still there and ready to get back to work as soon as oxygenated blood starts arriving again. Sure, that's true for a minute or so, maybe two if you're young and healthy. Af…

well take the analogy further, in this case to save the patient's life you have to stop the heart from beating for a time but that doesn't imply the patient has suffered a heart attack.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#96

Post by chasd00 »

daxorid wrote: post #85
chasd00 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what's happening is the result of a medical emergency and not the economy. There's no financial reason or economic reason the job losses are so high. It's still there, the demand is still there, we artificially halted the economy and that generated the job loss. It's certainly not an on/off situation but the job demand is still there and we can get back to work.

> the demand is still there Right. Common belief in 1930-1931, too. Psychology is malleable, and consumption patterns beyond food and shelter are driven largely by psychology. In the great depression, consumption behavior of an entire generation was permanently changed, no matter how much better the economy got. Those mental scars lasted forever. What percentage of the population will watch a parent, spouse, best fri…

well, we can argue but in 6-8 months we'll know for sure.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#97

Post by _curious_ »

IAmEveryone wrote: post #79
streetcat1 wrote: post #47

According to my calculation, minimum wage employees can now get twice in unemployment benefits (for at least 4 months) than his/her original wage. So based on that, even if the economy is open, I failed to see what would incentivize people to return to work.

it’d be quite stupid to give up your job in this “economy” for a benefit limited to 4 months. Beyond that, it just shows that minimum wage is nowhere close to covering basic necessities, especially for families. Even if the mechanism you fear does start happening, the result would be that employers would (finally) have to raise wages. Win-Win!

" it’d be quite stupid to give up your job in this “economy” for a benefit limited to 4 months." I think you are over estimating the masses...and under estimating the duration of the welfare.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#98

Post by throwanem »

_curious_ wrote: post #94
throwanem wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unemployment insurance payout per month is usually capped based on what you made at the job you had before you went on it. One assumes that will again be the case once the current crisis is considered to have ended. Unemployment insurance payouts are also time-bound. You don't go on unemployment and stay on it indefinitely; after a few months, barring a rare and hard-to-obtain extension, the benefit ends.

"One assumes that will again be the case once the current crisis is considered to have ended." Let one not assume?

It wouldn't be the worst idea, which is why I'm not optimistic that it will play out that way. At best, given that states administer unemployment insurance, I would expect to see a patchwork, with many of the states where it's most needed refusing to implement it.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#99

Post by _curious_ »

kasey_junk wrote: post #44
jonplackett wrote: post #26

Is this much job loss happening elsewhere, like Europe?

Yes. Spain lost about 10% of its workforce in March. Italy is expected to go from projected 0.5% GDP growth to -3% (or even up to -10% by some projections). I saw one estimate that 60% of Italy’s manufacturing plant was shut down by COVID.

So how can reality be determined when employment has become such a facade?
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