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Coronavirus and Credibility

paulgraham.com

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Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#71

Post by lazyjones »

mehrdadn wrote: post #54
lazyjones wrote: post #31

Does pg never watch the news? Or did he just forget that "no worse than the flu" was the general tone until late February in pretty much all 'western' media and even MDs? E.g. https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronav... https://www.mdmag.com/medical-news/the-fear-of-the-corona-vi... (kudos for correcting/updating later...) Seems a bit one-sided to get so excited about wrong predictions by the Fox/…

Since this is about watching the news, it'd be nice if you could share clips from (say) CNN or MSNBC carrying a similar message, confidence, and tone.

Here's the Guardian: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aerq4byr7ps

... just older people with underlying conditions dying ... etc.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#73

Post by Lewton »

casefields wrote: post #68
Juliate wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The flu, even with vaccines, does not overwhelm medical personel, facilities and logistics as this does. And the total death toll, given the current dynamics, is already going way way worse than the flu.

Yes it does. 2018: Flu stomps the nation, overwhelming ERs and leaving 20 children dead: https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/12/health/flu-surveillance-cdc/i... 2013: Flu Outbreak Overwhelms Hospitals: https://fox8.com/news/flu-outbreak-overwhelms-area-hospitals... 2017: Hospitals Overwhelmed by Flu Patients Are Treating Them in Tents: https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patie... I still have yet to hear f…

Those articles do not in anyway describe situations that are close to what we're seeing now in new york, italy, france and spain

The flu is still terrible, btw. And I hope this situation will increase the vaccination rates for the flu

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#74

Post by Juliate »

casefields wrote: post #68
Juliate wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The flu, even with vaccines, does not overwhelm medical personel, facilities and logistics as this does. And the total death toll, given the current dynamics, is already going way way worse than the flu.

Yes it does. 2018: Flu stomps the nation, overwhelming ERs and leaving 20 children dead: https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/12/health/flu-surveillance-cdc/i... 2013: Flu Outbreak Overwhelms Hospitals: https://fox8.com/news/flu-outbreak-overwhelms-area-hospitals... 2017: Hospitals Overwhelmed by Flu Patients Are Treating Them in Tents: https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patie... I still have yet to hear f…

I don't think you picture yet the scale at which we are all hit right now...

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#75

Post by [deleted] »

heimidal wrote: post #46
bsaul wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i've been saying "not more dangerous than the flu" before it started really going to shxt in europe, because to be honest, the epidemic doesn't look that dangerous if you're in general good health, just by looking at the numbers from a distance. The fact that most people seem to not have anything worse than a few days of fever (some having even nothing at all), while at the same time others simply die very quickly to…

The part of that most people, including you, seen to miss is that this goes way beyond those sick with the virus. The strain this virus is putting on healthcare is unlike anything the flu does in any given year, even during epidemics in the past several decades. That means it will kill people who are sick with something else. Pray you don't have a need for an ICU bed any time soon. In the US, the flu kills between 12…

[deleted]

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#76

Post by gadders »

jpxw wrote: post #57
gadders wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is that rubbish? It was created by a team just as credible as that at Imperial College.

The Oxford study is based on blatantly, and easily demonstrably, bad data. For example it relies on only 1 out of every 1000 infections needing hospitalisation. This is not supported by any current evidence. https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-infections-oxfor...

Conversely, the lead on the Imperial Study was also in charge of modelling for the UK foot and mouth epidemic which was found not fit for purpose and resulted in lots of livestock being slaughtered unnecessarily. And this is the one the UK and other governments seem to be basing their approach on.

"He was behind disputed research that sparked the mass culling of farm animals during the 2001 epidemic of foot and mouth disease, a crisis which cost the country billions of pounds.

And separately he also predicted that up to 150,000 people could die from bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, or ‘mad cow disease’) and its equivalent in sheep if it made the leap to humans. To date there have been fewer than 200 deaths from the human form of BSE and none resulting from sheep to human transmission."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/neil-ferguson-sc...

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#77

Post by imgabe »

bsaul wrote: post #10
djaychela wrote: post #5

From what I'm reading, I think there are still a significant minority of people who think this isn't an issue. I've had to learn to just walk away from comments on a variety of media where comments such as 'psychosomatic', 'less dangerous than the flu that kills 50,000 each year', 'patented by the illuminati', 'caused by 5G masts', and so on. I ended up deleting my twitter account as I dared try to engage with one UK…

i've been saying "not more dangerous than the flu" before it started really going to shxt in europe, because to be honest, the epidemic doesn't look that dangerous if you're in general good health, just by looking at the numbers from a distance. The fact that most people seem to not have anything worse than a few days of fever (some having even nothing at all), while at the same time others simply die very quickly to…

Comparing annual death totals for the flu to coronavirus deaths over a couple of months is mistake number 1.

Comparing a number that is static from year to year to one that is growing exponentially is mistake number 2.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#78

Post by brain5ide »

tannhaeuser wrote: post #66

I've had this idea for some time already where if you post something news-like, you should attach a link to your sources, like "citation needed" for non-Wikipedia text. I know that sounds bland and like basic journalistic practice - but it is not, nor should be followed by professional/accredited journalists who of course need to be able to protect their sources and publish on their own site; it's intended for social…

How is that different from what happens now with links being added?

Also, journalists (or let's call them news media agencies) often abuse this by reporting of "claims by this" on the topic rather than the topic and in that way refusing any iota of responsibility for what they put on the spotlight.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#79

Post by collyw »

Lewton wrote: post #16
collyw wrote: post #7

Wasn't Elon Musk going to make a website that rated the credibility of journalism somehow? What happened to that?

Musk is still actively downplaying the severity of the situation. Recently he's been signal boosting the idea that many more people are infected than we think and therefore the alarmism is unwarranted

Considering the amount of testing that is actually being done, no one has much ideas of the real number of cases. With any luck he will be right but no one really knows.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#80

Post by elorant »

djaychela wrote: post #5

From what I'm reading, I think there are still a significant minority of people who think this isn't an issue. I've had to learn to just walk away from comments on a variety of media where comments such as 'psychosomatic', 'less dangerous than the flu that kills 50,000 each year', 'patented by the illuminati', 'caused by 5G masts', and so on. I ended up deleting my twitter account as I dared try to engage with one UK…

I think that a lot of the people who are deniers are afraid of the economical consequences from the lockdown because they will be hit harder than others. So in their mind they choose to underplay the epidemic in order to justify their insecurity.
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