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Coronavirus and Credibility

paulgraham.com

51–60 of 968 posts

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#51
While this does seem like an attack on those who claim Covid-19 is not going to be as bad as the prevailing sentiment and the prevailing media view, let's not forget that the prevailing sentiment 1-2 months ago was that Covid-19 would not be a big deal (in the West). I'm seeing many of the same people who pronounced Covid-19 would not be a big deal, doing a full 180 and attacking those who are pronouncing Covid-19 to be less dangerous than expected.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#52
Disappointing to see that MSM and more disappointing that even here there are not more people questioning the data and situation.

Also, where did the free thinking go? Not ostracising everyone that has a different view than the current world narrative.

There are dozens of sme in virus-related fields that are voicing the opposite of what govs and msm are saying. This is a great lesson for us all.

Let’s see it dismantle our current “ways of living”. Time for something new!

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#53
post #16
post #7

Wasn't Elon Musk going to make a website that rated the credibility of journalism somehow? What happened to that?

Musk is still actively downplaying the severity of the situation. Recently he's been signal boosting the idea that many more people are infected than we think and therefore the alarmism is unwarranted

So what exactly are you saying? 1) he is evil, 2) he is wrong?

For 1), it's up to you to judge him based on your perceptions (I'd disagree), for 2) you'd need a little more than your gut feeling to call him wrong. Germany is testing extensively and resulting current estimates are around 1% mortality (WHO estimate: 3,4%).

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#54

Does pg never watch the news? Or did he just forget that "no worse than the flu" was the general tone until late February in pretty much all 'western' media and even MDs? E.g. https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronav... https://www.mdmag.com/medical-news/the-fear-of-the-corona-vi... (kudos for correcting/updating later...) Seems a bit one-sided to get so excited about wrong predictions by the Fox/…

Since this is about watching the news, it'd be nice if you could share clips from (say) CNN or MSNBC carrying a similar message, confidence, and tone.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#55
post #29

But both sides are irrationally being confident. The doomsdayers at least as much as the "flu-bros". I think it's fair to challenge the massive interventions being taken and the economic damage.

The problem with much of the challenges to the massive interventions is that they might not have been necessary if countries like the US had a competent and urgent response when the crisis first emerged. But they didn’t, and you can’t go back in time, so the choices are lockdown or let masses on masses of people dies and overwhelm several vital services.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#56

From what I'm reading, I think there are still a significant minority of people who think this isn't an issue. I've had to learn to just walk away from comments on a variety of media where comments such as 'psychosomatic', 'less dangerous than the flu that kills 50,000 each year', 'patented by the illuminati', 'caused by 5G masts', and so on. I ended up deleting my twitter account as I dared try to engage with one UK…

What's amusing to be is how anyone can look at the incompetence of governments across the world, and conclude they'd be capable of any kind of organized conspiracy against the general population.

Like the endless YouTube conspiracy-oriented channels which rant about the vast Illuminati/Jewish/Deep-State/whatever conspiracy that holds our world in thrall and assassinates with impunity, yet somehow can't manage to file a few bogus DMCA claims to get the YouTube channels shutdown.

Of course if one tries pointing this out the response is sometimes "oh, they're so powerful that they like to mock us", but more commonly just to accuse you of being a shill/deep-state-agent/whatever.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#57
post #41
post #22

Even “reputable” sources like the Financial Times have been putting out utter rubbish: https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea0557... My current theory is that we are seeing denial on a mass scale as a coping mechanism.

Why is that rubbish? It was created by a team just as credible as that at Imperial College.

The Oxford study is based on blatantly, and easily demonstrably, bad data. For example it relies on only 1 out of every 1000 infections needing hospitalisation. This is not supported by any current evidence.

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-infections-oxfor...

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#58
> What struck me about it was not just how mistaken they seemed, but how daring.

Really paul? You are struck by how wrong journalists and politicians are? They exist to lie and push an agenda. You've written in the past about the shady aspects of the news industry. And I seriously doubt you harbored any positive views of politicians.

> These people constantly make false predictions, and get away with it, because the things they make predictions about either have mushy enough outcomes that they can bluster their way out of trouble, or happen so far in the future that few remember what they said.

They make false predictions and get away with it because their agenda and the agenda of their fans/supporters line up. This is true of the fox side and the cnn/msnbc side. Have you forgotten about the predictions of yellowcake? The predictions of a short war in iraq? Remember mission accomplished? What about the predictions of a Hillary victory? What about all the predictions about trump/russia collusion? What about all the predictions that trump would be tossed from office/resign/jailed/etc?

> And the tide has just gone out like never before.

No paul. They've all been shamelessly naked sun bathing on the beach for everyone to see. It's not like they are hiding their bias.

> Now that we've seen the results, let's remember what we saw,

I doubt it. Just like people seem to have forgotten what a hack trevor noah is. In just the last few years, if people cared about being lied to, everything from Rolling Stones, NYTimes, WaPo, Fox news, CNN, MSNBC, NBC, CBS, etc would be out of business.

Brian Williams lied at NBC and then got a job at MSNBC. Isn't that nice?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Williams#Controversies

I hate to say it but your post seemed more like an attempt to win political points rather than expressing disappointment in the news industry since you were already fairly skeptical of the news industry to begin with.

http://paulgraham.com/submarine.html

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#59
post #9

From what I'm reading, I think there are still a significant minority of people who think this isn't an issue. I've had to learn to just walk away from comments on a variety of media where comments such as 'psychosomatic', 'less dangerous than the flu that kills 50,000 each year', 'patented by the illuminati', 'caused by 5G masts', and so on. I ended up deleting my twitter account as I dared try to engage with one UK…

Of all the conspiracy theories out there, the 'caused by 5G masts' is the one that confuses me the most. I get the possible aversion to 5G, but how does one make the leap from that to it causing COVID?

I'll clue you in: While some actually believe in the nutty conspiracy crap, it's mostly being pushed by anti-Chinese racists/nationalists/tribalists. Remember how that 5G tower gear is mostly made by Huawei? This is an excuse to attack them and how to get others to do it for them. You need to understand how plausible deniability is so often used by JAQoff deplorables.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#60
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Just goes to show that people will continue to ignore an exponential trend until it eats their lunch personally. This. It seems most people are incapable of making decisions purely based on what their mind or the math says. I kind of get it, it didn't "feel real" in the beginning, it was just the mind that went "omg we need to act NOW", not the stomach. I suspect this is why the Silicon Valley Crowd was so far ahea…

Or they work with remote teams around the world, including China & Europe, and saw first-hand what was coming.

Every major bank in NYC has trading desks across the world, including Asian markets. Shouldn't they have seen it coming as well?
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