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Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Lower Than in Other Countries

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Re: Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Lower Than in Other Countries

#61
post #58
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are plenty of missing tests. Testing is limited almost everywhere. Due to the testing that is in place I don't expect the same ratio, but also, not all countries count all tested deaths as corona deaths, only a few do as far as I understand.

Fair enough. From what I make of this all we do not have strong enough data to really say this is as bad as we make it. We'll see in a month or two I guess when we can conclusively look at the total mortality.

I agree we don't know yet, it could be worse or better. But I think it will take a year or two to know based on how long it takes to do a post mortem on an influenza season. Certainly failure to quarantine would be devastating so whatever the final numbers are is irrelevant. We already have overwhelmed health systems around the world, and the fatality rate would be a whole different level if that was more widespread.

Re: Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Lower Than in Other Countries

#62
post #16
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the long-term it might also be important to look at the economy at least a few years down the line. It might be that some countries will find it very difficult to recover from the crisis because the lockdown hurt the economy too much. That has a cost in lives too.

Economies are surprisingly resilient. It’s systemic causes not temporary disruptions that cause long term issues. Just look at say Japan after the tsunami which not only killed people but also destroyed a lot of critical infrastructure.

> Just look at say Japan after the tsunami which not only killed people but also destroyed a lot of critical infrastructure.

Ok, lets; because I think the one positive thing that may come out of all of this is that we act with an acute understanding that our current system on this Planet is precarious, unsustainable, and we cannot just go back to it.

Which is what Japan did, and continues to do: they have not addressed the massive out-pour of Nuclear run-off into the Pacific, they have neglected to address the massive displaced population of Fukushima, their contamination programs are insufficient and the testing for their food is still not wide-spread nor taken seriously. They haven't completely phased out Nuclear Energy after all of this, and continue with a political lobbyist perspective whether they will or won't turn them back on.

All while still trying to continue to get the Olympic games to take place; no, I'd say Japan's Government reaction is exactly what we shouldn't be following, its exactly what we need to avoid in order to ensure this doesn't take place.

Wet-Markets re-emerging in China, for example, would be following Japan: simply continuing something because it served some economic function, but carried large consequences and still doing it anyway is not what we should strive for. Those Wet-Markets are thought to be significant contributors to SARS and now CoVid19.

If anything risk-management needs to be a bigger contributor to how we act moving forward; as I see ME and Russia oil refiners play chicken with one another, I wonder if this is what will what finally transitions us to EV in earnest. Continuing to rely on such suicidal actors to carry out best practices for something so critical has to be seen for the folly that it is.

I'm admittedly a petrolhead, but a part of me always knew this was coming and I fully embraced it occurring, I just wished we would have had the good sense for it to be a gradual transition--as it was appearing to be with many Manufactures pushing for EV models being a large part of their lineup based on purchases and legislation requirements--rather than an abrupt shock to the system that made us realize where our priorities should be when thinking about sustainable mass-transport.

The same sentiment goes for things like how UBI, Work From Home and Online Learning being the way many jobs and schools function in order to reduce Greenhouse emissions and help curb climate change. This can be an opportunity in disguise if we have the foresight to see it as one and act as a Planetary Species understanding that our very survival is at stake rather than the petulant children and a voracious appetite for 'what we want, at all costs,' as we've been thus far.

> Economies are surprisingly resilient.

I want to believe in anti-fragile economic models, too; but I've come to the realization that however persuasive intellectually as that argument may be it isn't absolute when the very Environment you're operating in cannot carry on with the practices that make that doctrine possible at scale.

Re: Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Lower Than in Other Countries

#63
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems like you are assuming a much larger asymptomatic rate than what has been published. Because population fatality rate without healthcare would probably be in the 3-7% range, and true asymptomatic cases are only around 20% (at least based on Diamond Princess data). There are around 1.2 billion people in Africa, yielding a death toll on that continent around 36M souls at the low end. Four years of childhood pov…

> would Let’s argue about hypotheticals in a few months when we have more perspective. Both of your lines of reasoning are filament-thin and stitched together using way too many assumptions right now.

I noticed you were claiming that the Sars Cov 2 pandemic was starting to wind down a week ago. But as of today the situation is much more explosive than it was when you made that claim, basically everywhere except Italy, which is on full lockdown. In much of the world there is every indication that the bad is only accelerating. Do you think that maybe it's your predictions and lines of reasoning that are actually miscalibrated?

Re: Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Lower Than in Other Countries

#64

I know from italy for ex. if you are tested positive on Corona, no matter how you die (a tank drove over you twice) you will end up in the "death with Corona" spreadsheet. I don't know about other countrys does this handle. Also normaly, if very old people get sick (like my grandma died) they don't go to the emergency hospital. They might go to a hospital, but usually they don't try to save lives at all costs.

I don't think this would have a large impact because the percentage of people who have coronovirus is still extremely low, 0.1% in the worst hit countries.

Normal european death rates seem to be ~10 death/1000 people/year; for example in 2018 Germany had 954874 deaths or ~2600 per day. Multiply that with a ~0.1% coronavirus rate and only 2 people who would have died anyway would get overcounted for coronavirus.

Re: Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Lower Than in Other Countries

#65

Worth noting this is from last week. What's Germany's rate now? Since Germany started testing extensively and early, and death is a lagging indicator, I wouldn't be surprised if this creeps up to the more expected ~1.5% we see in Korea or the Diamond Princess. I check the worldometers numbers everyday, and already Germany is up about half a percent from when that article was written, but I'm not totally sure that sit…

>> Since Germany started testing extensivel

I do not know where you got this bullshit from; as someone living here, it makes me wonder, how anybody could call the Merkel Passiveness to "having startet extensively"

???

Source, please.

Re: Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Lower Than in Other Countries

#66
This is because other countries are understating infection counts because of poor testing.

Wikipedia has a very interesting table with testing stats: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing#National_stat...

Many countries or regions have extremely high positive test ratios, for example Lombardy is at 37% positive, France at 20% while Germany is at 7.4% and South Korea at 2.4%.

If Lombardy tested more people they would find many many more cases and their reported death rate would decrease.

The fact that areas with high infection counts like New York and Northern Italy are reporting high positive test ratios is terrifying. It means that they are doing worse than the numbers indicate and they're limited by testing capacity.

Re: Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Lower Than in Other Countries

#67
post #61
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair enough. From what I make of this all we do not have strong enough data to really say this is as bad as we make it. We'll see in a month or two I guess when we can conclusively look at the total mortality.

I agree we don't know yet, it could be worse or better. But I think it will take a year or two to know based on how long it takes to do a post mortem on an influenza season. Certainly failure to quarantine would be devastating so whatever the final numbers are is irrelevant. We already have overwhelmed health systems around the world, and the fatality rate would be a whole different level if that was more widespread.

I can't follow along with that. We're in peace times.. banning people from going out of their home is something I would not have believed possible until russian tanks are at the gates of Berlin again, or the day of reckoning is coming after all.

The mortality is not increased [1], the number of acute respiratory illnesses is not increased [2]. German hospitals are not overwhelmed, indeed we gave away hundreds of respirators and treat a large number of patients from neighboring countries right now.

There are single cases of overwhelmed medical systems, but those are few and in places where this has happened before [3] and frankly those places have not been in great shape before.

I can't see the justification for these draconian measures with so little evidence. What I do see however is a perverse dynamic between sensationalist media and power hungry politicians. It's infuriating how critics are defamed by newspapers [4] and even high-profile experts ignored [5]. The economic and social downfall from these measures will be insurmountable I fear and dwarf any risk now or even in the foreseeable future from sars-cov-2.

[1] https://www.euromomo.eu/ [2] https://image.jimcdn.com/app/cms/image/transf/none/path/s56f... [3] https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/18_gennaio_10/mil... [4] https://www.welt.de/gesundheit/article206667595/Wolfgang-Wod... [5] https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-a...

Re: Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Lower Than in Other Countries

#68
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> would Let’s argue about hypotheticals in a few months when we have more perspective. Both of your lines of reasoning are filament-thin and stitched together using way too many assumptions right now.

I noticed you were claiming that the Sars Cov 2 pandemic was starting to wind down a week ago. But as of today the situation is much more explosive than it was when you made that claim, basically everywhere except Italy, which is on full lockdown. In much of the world there is every indication that the bad is only accelerating. Do you think that maybe it's your predictions and lines of reasoning that are actually mis…

In the US the deaths are accelerating, but they lag by many weeks or even months in some cases. Lots of new cases are being identified with the increase in testing, but the proportion of positive tests is not changing, which is evidence that the spread is well past the "explosive" point. But each community follows its own mini-epidemic, and there's still tons of uncertainty. We will see how good of a prediction it was eventually.

Re: Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Lower Than in Other Countries

#69
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW, a quick Google tells me that the obesity rate in Germany is higher than it is in the US. I didn't down-vote you, though. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesity_in_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesity_in_Germany I suppose it's possible that the WHO and the CDC use different BMI thresholds, though.

Germans may have a higher rate of obesity, but obese Americans seem to be more chunky than obese Germans. [1] The number of times I've seen someone who's clearly 400+ pounds outside of America has been maybe 4, 5 times? In the US, I'll see at least one or two people around that weight daily. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_body_weight

You seem to have left off the reference you wanted to cite with "[1]".

Re: Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Lower Than in Other Countries

#70
post #64

I know from italy for ex. if you are tested positive on Corona, no matter how you die (a tank drove over you twice) you will end up in the "death with Corona" spreadsheet. I don't know about other countrys does this handle. Also normaly, if very old people get sick (like my grandma died) they don't go to the emergency hospital. They might go to a hospital, but usually they don't try to save lives at all costs.

I don't think this would have a large impact because the percentage of people who have coronovirus is still extremely low, 0.1% in the worst hit countries. Normal european death rates seem to be ~10 death/1000 people/year; for example in 2018 Germany had 954874 deaths or ~2600 per day. Multiply that with a ~0.1% coronavirus rate and only 2 people who would have died anyway would get overcounted for coronavirus.

We simply don't have random testing in Germany yet. 0.1% is roughly the official number of positive test (of people who are sick enough to get tested).
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