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Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

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Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#131
post #62

Looks mostly right but he is wrong about the Diamond Princess. Those people all went off home, which is not Japan. Mostly western states. So they don't count to the Japanese numbers, only did in the very beginning. The rest looks indeed cooked, on purpose. Pasting images instead of tables is the usual trick.

He is also wrong about there having been no follow-up. Here it is, though only about a smaller fraction of the passengers.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551331

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#132
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't deal in speculation and rumours sorry. The 2-3% assuming you have medical treatment has held true. The 10+% hospitalization has held true. The lack of response from the US is in no way due to China's reporting, it's due to the US propaganda and incompetence.

> I don't deal in speculation and rumours sorry. But you trust a known liar (the Chinese government)? Sounds like you're a bit biased here. > US propaganda So the US spreads propaganda, but not China? I don't understand how an educated individual could spout this nonsense anywhere. edit: Am I getting downvotes because HN thinks the Chinese government doesn't have a history of lying? Anyone remember Tiananmen Square,…

Both the U.S. and China spread propaganda.

Both governments do bad things. Both do good things. The world is not black and white.

You don't need to pit the two against each other. The world is a big place, with a varied history. We're all people.

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#133
post #118
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has a long, long history of suppressing access to information though. Not just in reporting false data, but also in limiting the press from investigating issues themselves. Are you honestly saying that Japan and the US have a comparable history? > And don't tell me that anything after January was China's fault. It is not like governments around the world didn't know what happened there. Both are possible, and b…

> Are you honestly saying that Japan and the US have a comparable history? This is exactly the point of parent comment: people are simply repeating the same narrative based on "the history" as if we are still in cold war and it is impossible to know what really happened in China, while this is no longer true. Surely the situation is not ideal, in that you still need hours to read between lines and investigate, China…

Trump has elevated Chinese issues into familiar grievance politics that many people are unable to assess the situation impartially. I've seen so many posts on western social media of conditions in quarantined Chinese cities being suppressed or dismissed as propaganda/shill that people are failing to accept reality, deluding themselves into unpreparedness. Also many are simply ignorant of Chinese-western relationship dynamics to comment usefully.

The fact is, China has always been on don't trust and verify relationship. You don't listen to what they say, but watch what they do. And China is one of the most watched country by foreign analysis and intelligence officials everywhere. If shutting down a city and then the country is less of an urgent indicator than their numbers collated together during an uncharted event, then you're focusing on the wrong thing. This is well understood by people in China policy who cultivate relationships with Chinese counterparts as part of intelligence gathering... intelligence that countries failed to act on. For example the Chinese CDC was basically modeled after and trained by the US CDC. There are many unofficial channels between Chinese and HK/Taiwan/US medical communities which is one reason why HK and Taiwan was so ahead of the curve. There's also thousands of expats in China and millions of Chinese diaspora with connections to the mainland. There's no shortage of information on a massively public crisis like this, there are only people who don't know how to look, or looked and decided to ignore what they found. And more disconcertingly, on a diplomatic level between western countries - the possibility that information isn't being shared behind the usual channels because lack of US leadership in the last few years has undermined world order.

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#134
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In December, China's influence caused the WHO -not- to report human to human transmission. This was despite the known infection of healthcare workers, and counter to the reports made from Taiwan. Human-human transmission is one of the fundamental elements used to determine the urgency of an outbreak.

Hello, would you please link us to the report made from Taiwan which reports H2H transmission in Dec 2019? My Google-fu failed me on this, thanks!

https://www.ft.com/content/2a70a02a-644a-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6...

Taiwan says WHO failed to act on coronavirus transmission warning: relationship with Beijing blamed for not sharing alert over human-to-human infection

without paywall: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-24/taiwan...

"We asked them whether there's a possibility of human-to-human transmission. We indeed asked them and reminded them of the matter," Chou said. He said the WHO confirmed it had received the letter but did not respond to it.

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#135
post #118
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has a long, long history of suppressing access to information though. Not just in reporting false data, but also in limiting the press from investigating issues themselves. Are you honestly saying that Japan and the US have a comparable history? > And don't tell me that anything after January was China's fault. It is not like governments around the world didn't know what happened there. Both are possible, and b…

> Are you honestly saying that Japan and the US have a comparable history? This is exactly the point of parent comment: people are simply repeating the same narrative based on "the history" as if we are still in cold war and it is impossible to know what really happened in China, while this is no longer true. Surely the situation is not ideal, in that you still need hours to read between lines and investigate, China…

> We should either try to understand

Try to understand, precisely, what?

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything I've seen matches up with the Chinese data (when adjusting for test coverage for mild symptom patients). Where are you seeing this 10x higher number?

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/wuhan-residents-dismiss-... > Wuhan residents are increasingly skeptical of the Chinese Communist Party’s reported coronavirus death count of approximately 2,500 deaths in the city to date, with most people believing the actual numbers is at least 40,000 https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-... > Some Wuhan residents estimate that the coronavirus death toll c…

The two links seems to point to the same source, and:

> Trucks dropped off roughly 2,500 urns on Wednesday and again on Thursday local time to one of the eight local funeral homes, a driver told Chinese media outlet Caixin. The news site also published another photo showing 3,500 urns stacked inside the facility. The number of urns that arrived in that one funeral home was far greater than the city's official overall death COVID-19 toll.

Note that the numbers given are for EMPTY urns.

> Some Wuhan residents estimate that the coronavirus death toll could be 26,000, based on the amount of urns being delivered and distributed across the city. Citizens on Chinese social media have said that seven Wuhan funeral homes will likely distribute 3,500 urns per day on average from March 23 to April 4, which marks Qing Ming, the traditional tomb-sweeping festival.

Note that this is based on "some random Wuhan residents playing numbers on social network".

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#137
post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The numbers are probably not accurate, but there is no place where the numbers are accurate. There's a huge difference between accuracy and unadulterated deception. If the numbers are off by 10%, you can claim it's inaccurate, but if the numbers are off by a lot more, it starts moving into deception territory. Right now, assuming the stories about urns being delivered to funeral homes are accurate, it sounds like n…

Maybe. But it is really hard to find an explanation on why every medical statistics (severe rate, hospitalization rate, death rate, average time in hospital, average recovery time, etc) seems to hold true and verified by other countries, and they can still fake their death count (and only death count). On the other hand, the number of urns being delivered to funeral homes can be easily explained. For example, the urn…

> seems to hold true and verified by other countries

Sure they were.

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#138
now days hacker news is often filled non-tech related discussion, specially anything relate to China or politics; come on guys, this is Hacker news, not political news; if you are so passion about politics, go to some forum dedicate for those things;

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#139
post #134
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hello, would you please link us to the report made from Taiwan which reports H2H transmission in Dec 2019? My Google-fu failed me on this, thanks!

https://www.ft.com/content/2a70a02a-644a-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6... Taiwan says WHO failed to act on coronavirus transmission warning: relationship with Beijing blamed for not sharing alert over human-to-human infection without paywall: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-24/taiwan... "We asked them whether there's a possibility of human-to-human transmission. We indeed asked them and reminded them of the…

Thanks for the non paywall-d link, that's an interesting read, also previous discussion on HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22712971

Kudos to Taiwan for reminding WHO an unknown virus, just like any other virus, may possibly be H2H-transmissible!

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#140
post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe. But it is really hard to find an explanation on why every medical statistics (severe rate, hospitalization rate, death rate, average time in hospital, average recovery time, etc) seems to hold true and verified by other countries, and they can still fake their death count (and only death count). On the other hand, the number of urns being delivered to funeral homes can be easily explained. For example, the urn…

> seems to hold true and verified by other countries Sure they were.

Mind giving an example of what doesn't match?
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