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Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

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321–330 of 349 posts

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that we're more likely to listen to a politician (or a media figure) rather than someone who has spent the better portion of four decades studying a topic is one of the most existential threats we face. We need to figure out a way to get through the tribal mentality. Right now, a significant plurality (if not an actual majority) of people are more concerned about their side winning points than about effectiv…

Seriously, what is the analogous computer science problem to this? Why is it that a lifetime of experiences, and I still draw blanks every time I try to figure out what to do about this stuff. I mean... everything minus scenarios which include massive amounts of death. Surely there's a better way though.

There are a few analogous situations you'll find in computer science and the development world: brand worship and celebrity worship.

We'll quickly adopt patterns and opinions given by well known individuals without judging the output on its own merit. We'll follow tools, frameworks and trends that emerge from organizations without assessing its suitability for ourselves. In fact we will even twist our world view in order to accommodate someone else's reality, at detriment to ourselves. I specifically don't want to give examples, but you can come up with a few of you think about it.

It's a matter of course in our industry however so we don't really consider it to be analogous to the above problem, simply because we are inside the system. We see nothing wrong with what we're doing and are quick to judge outside groups on the same behaviours... Which makes it even more analogous!

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#322
post #315
post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suppose his point is that the coronavirus overwhelms hospitals much, much more seriously than the flu does.

All the more reason to get your flu shot to reduce the chance that you end up in the hospital using valuable space needed for Coronavirus patients. I'm not minimizing Coronavirus. I'm trying to leverage the attention people are paying to it to emphasize the importance of vaccination.

I agree, getting the flu shot is very important. My whole family gets it every season.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#323
post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you want to know fatality rates you need a controlled population. South Korea isn't that, its level of testing isn't even much higher than Switzerlands at this point. There are only two known populations in which everyone was forced to be tested and their movement was limited, which thus makes up a controlled study: the Diamond Princess and the town of Vo in Italy. In both cases the fatality rate is much less than…

> In fact in Vo it was zero. Isn't it a bit disingenuous to use a city with 89 cases as being statistically significant?

Vo has 3000 inhabitants, it's not a city, that's why they could completely isolate it and test every single inhabitant. It gives a 'random' sample, unlike other testing regimens.

The population size isn't that big indeed, but it's still multiple times larger than the cruise ship.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#324
post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Diamond Princess’s population is also small, extremely poorly represents the general population, and happened in a setting unrepresentative of the rest of the world. Passenger age is just about the only factor that would drive the mortality and infection rates up, everything else lowers it. As a model the Diamond Princess should probably be treated more as the floor rather than anything representing the average.

everything else lowers it What are these everything else’s ? By far the best predictor of patient mortality has been age. What else is it about the Diamond Princess population that would come even close, even in sum, to the predictive power of their age?

Quality of care after the fact is the obvious one. The patients of the cruise ship weren’t being treated by a flooded hospital system. Quarantine on the ship is less than perfect, but it’s still better than the efforts made by many governments which was to do nothing until things got out of hand.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#325
What kind of amazes me about this is it was obvious this would happen if the US didn't test as many people as possible early on to catch the virus. Yet the CDC banned most labs from testing and when a researcher in Seattle tested against permission and found the virus spreading tried to cover it up. Why? Wasn't it obvious that that would result in the present mess? Why couldn't they have just said yeah, test whatever?

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#326

The American people are at the mercy of a rudderless death cult, and have increasingly been so over the past decade. It's coming to a head now. Oh, it seems I've been flagged.

The comment was rightly flagged. Please stop posting flamebait and unsubstantive comments to HN. You've done it a lot, and we ban accounts that keep doing this.

We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22694149.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#327
post #325

What kind of amazes me about this is it was obvious this would happen if the US didn't test as many people as possible early on to catch the virus. Yet the CDC banned most labs from testing and when a researcher in Seattle tested against permission and found the virus spreading tried to cover it up. Why? Wasn't it obvious that that would result in the present mess? Why couldn't they have just said yeah, test whatever…

Because apparently even non evasive medial test are bound in ridiculous amounts of regulatory red tape and pointless bureaucracy by the FDA.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's hard to take you seriously when you take a range given by the CDC (38,000,000 – 54,000,000) and cherry-pick it as a specific figure that makes your position look stronger. You're arguing in bad faith. Even according to the figures you've given from the CDC, the flu has a 0.1% death rate, which is nowhere near the 1.4% death rate COVID-19 currently has in the US. No one is trivializing the flu, but it's silly to…

> 1.4% death rate We don't know that. At all. In the past these kinds of on-the-fly estimates during the spread of an infection have turned out to be overestimates. Sometimes by an order of magnitude.

Source?

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#329
post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You must have missed the most recent round of GOP talking points, where they were suggesting we write off the lives of people in high-risk groups so everyone else can get back to work. See https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.vice.com/en_us/arti... , https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fox-news-contributor-on-pu... , https://www.mediaite.com/news/glenn-beck-issues-call-for-old... for a few examples.

The same party that has been scaremongering against socialised healthcare saying it involves "death panels".

The only thing untrue is that we'd officially call them something else. You don't have "death panels" if you call them "community wellness committees".

There is no economy anywhere in the world that can support an infinite demand for healthcare. We keep inventing new healthcare too, so it only gets worse. There will be limits to healthcare, though we can lie to ourselves about that.

If we don't place a price on life, then 100% of our money goes to healthcare and then we still end up dead in the end.

With socialised healthcare, the politically viable solution is to promise more than can be delivered. This causes waiting lists. Waiting lists for "free" (tax funded) care will grow as long as demand exceeds supply. The supply is limited by resources. The demand is only limited because people die while waiting for treatment.

There is a huge opportunity for corruption and bias here. Instead of a simple waiting list, we can move people ahead if they are politically favored.

It's all simpler and less corrupt if we let market prices sort out how we wish to prioritize the care of one person, the care of another person, and all the other possible economic activity.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#330
post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In fact in Vo it was zero. Isn't it a bit disingenuous to use a city with 89 cases as being statistically significant?

Vo has 3000 inhabitants, it's not a city, that's why they could completely isolate it and test every single inhabitant. It gives a 'random' sample, unlike other testing regimens. The population size isn't that big indeed, but it's still multiple times larger than the cruise ship.

>The population size isn't that big indeed, but it's still multiple times larger than the cruise ship.

Which cruise ship? Diamond Princess had ~3600 occupants (passengers and crew).

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