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3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

wsj.com

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Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#91

Post by duxup »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #50
gonzo41 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Australia, they closed all the 'non-essential' industries. Which turns out to be about 30% of the workforce. I keep thinking that big shift will be when people come out of this they won't allow themselves to be 'non-essential' ever again. They won't take back those jobs, they'll push for agreements that guarantee a safety net.

> They won't take back those jobs, they'll push for agreements that guarantee a safety net. This event forcing America to adopt more progressive policies after experiencing suffering without them wouldn’t be a bad thing. Sometimes things must get worse for them to get better.

>This event forcing America to adopt more progressive policies

Most of the legislation is temporary heading into an election. I suspect the GOP would be happy to cut that net ASAP and sadly their own voters would support it.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#92

Post by [deleted] »

big_chungus wrote: post #62

For this not to bankrupt the nation and retard our growth for the next twenty-five years, we need to all go back to work, today. Even if coronavirus kills a million people, the rest will probably be fine in the long term. If we shut down the economy, three hundred million will be affected. This "flattening the curve" business is clearly not worth it. You cannot shut the economy. There is only so much we can borrow. T…

[deleted]

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#93

Post by duxup »

dragonwriter wrote: post #72
duxup wrote: post #17

Semi tangent, about dealing with mass unemployment. I like to think this event changes people's perspective on folks out of work in the US. There's a lot of recrimination, and even self loathing about being poor or out of work in the US. It doesn't seem based in reality and certainly isn't helpful. Perhaps it is time we realize that much like a pandemic things in this world change fast and we need to be able to help…

> I like to think this event changes people's perspective on folks out of work in the US. Sure, just like the Depression did. And just like the Depression, a few years of boom times afterwards and that effect will be negated until the next similar event.

Generally speaking a lot of depression era policies and concepts / the new deal stuck around / are still with us compared to what was there before.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#94

Post by thaumasiotes »

alharith wrote: post #82
duxup wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Business are being told to do takeout only which is a huge difference. Yeah I've been doing a fair amount of takeout and places where you had dozens of people ... operating with two or three people now.

My brother is a restaurant owner and reports that despite volume being down, profit is up due to less overhead. Others in the restaurant industry are reporting the same. When we come out on the other side of this, I think a lot of businesses are going to rethink a lot of things they held on to as infallible truths. Sorry as many mentioned, yes the key ingredient is takeout: This is a fast casual italian / pizza resta…

Is the change something that can be stabilized? Or when people have the option to eat out again, will delivery-only restaurants suffer too much from competition with eat-in restaurants? (Assuming there's some level of customer preference for eating in?)

Now I'm curious about pizza places. Most pizza places offer seating. But I feel like Domino's might in fact be delivery-only.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#95

Post by TheNorthman »

claudeganon wrote: post #54
stupandaus wrote: post #24

A few things to note: 1. These figures are only new claims as of 3/21, so the numbers will get worse. 2. This is ~2% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 3. This is nearly 5x (!) the prior record of 671K new jobless claims from 1982, and redefines the scale for jobless claims. [1] 4. This does not account for the countless gig workers that are part of the modern economy that likely did not file for unemployment s…

> This goes to show just how sharp of an impact the coronavirus pandemic has had relative to past recessions. Even the '08 Financial Crisis took MONTHS to unravel. I think we need to couple the two events a little more closely. The 2008 Financial Crisis accelerated inequality, political instability, asset inflation, and the rise of precarious work to such a degree that the damage of this hit is being greatly compound…

The former Minister of Finance in greece and current MP Yanis Varoufakis has made the same connection [0]. He argues that it's the same crisis, but that the crisis has transformed, so that the solution can't be the same as in 2008. E.g. the ability of China to offer massive renminbi-swaps is set into question because they are being hit hard by this crisis. The weren't hit during 2008.

He also questions whether the US will be willing to offer the same condition-less USD-swaps.

[0]: https://youtube.com/watch?v=OLfHpvJKNg0 is an interview where he explains his position.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#96

Post by kasey_junk »

packet_nerd wrote: post #67
jeltz wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is just the people who have filed last week. There is bound to be many more soon. And I am not sure everyone who have lost their jobs are eligible.

My wife and many of her coworkers quite their jobs in the last two weeks as working from home wasn't an option. My understanding is they won't be eligible for unemployment?

Depends on the jurisdiction but in most no, voluntary leaving is not covered.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#97

Post by Slartie »

big_chungus wrote: post #62

For this not to bankrupt the nation and retard our growth for the next twenty-five years, we need to all go back to work, today. Even if coronavirus kills a million people, the rest will probably be fine in the long term. If we shut down the economy, three hundred million will be affected. This "flattening the curve" business is clearly not worth it. You cannot shut the economy. There is only so much we can borrow. T…

How do you expect to "motivate" people to just go to work, spend money in restaurants, fly around, take cruises...as if there was nothing going on, while at the same time millions of people are dying? Everyone is going to have someone in their family who dies because of this virus. And they're not going to die silently - you'll have crazy imagery of emergency rooms spilling over with patients circulating among the public. And I'm not speaking about "media hype" - since this will hit all hospitals, people will just have to look left and right in their hometown to see the catastrophe evolving.

Are you going to plan to force people to take vacations, eat out, do their "normal" stuff, while this is unfolding? Because without excessive force, nobody will do that. You'll have open businesses, but they won't have any customers for months while the above-described pans out. And probably for quite a while to come, because this event will rip a gaping wound into the conscience of the American people, probably larger than 9/11 did.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#99

Post by baron_harkonnen »

dragonwriter wrote: post #72
duxup wrote: post #17

Semi tangent, about dealing with mass unemployment. I like to think this event changes people's perspective on folks out of work in the US. There's a lot of recrimination, and even self loathing about being poor or out of work in the US. It doesn't seem based in reality and certainly isn't helpful. Perhaps it is time we realize that much like a pandemic things in this world change fast and we need to be able to help…

> I like to think this event changes people's perspective on folks out of work in the US. Sure, just like the Depression did. And just like the Depression, a few years of boom times afterwards and that effect will be negated until the next similar event.

After the depression the US emerged as the global hegemon because of major shifts in power that happened as a part of WWII. The US was uniquely adapted to grow to be the global super power at the same time that European nations were taking a huge hit from the war.

I suspect this will ultimately lead to China as the new hegemon. We're seeing key advantages to the Chinese state that the US cannot adapt to. Decades of pushing the US government to work more and more exclusively in the interest of capital has lead to a completely impotent state that cannot take care of its people. Likewise we have a complacent populace who, as many here have argued, won't be able to endure extended isolation.

The pandemic is not just a rogue wave that has done some damage and we'll bounce right back. This event has shown deep systemic vulnerability to certain very real risks that the US is incapable of adapting too. And all these same risks are what leave us extremely vulnerable to other similar events like climate change.

The US will recover in a sense, but this is very likely the start of a long process of a major shift in global power, and the end result will look very, very different than the world of a few weeks ago.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#100

Post by lonelappde »

SamuelAdams wrote: post #74
rubber_duck wrote: post #35

And this is just the start. While I think the US response to Corona was slower than the response in my country I feel the US is the only country that's seriously discussing economic repercussions and debating the medical experts. In EU (at least in my country) it's doctors running things and we are in "stop the pandemic at all cost". Everyone is in panic due to Italy situation. But doctors are only trained to see the…

I saw this idea floated around on Reddit a few days ago. Basically the crux is that unemployment has a death toll, too. So if you close all non-essential businesses, unemployment rises, which increases the likelihood of people losing health insurance, losing homes, not paying electrical bills, communication (internet / phone) bills, etc. If some people lose all those things and don't have access to them again for 2+…

> losing health insurance, losing homes, not paying electrical bills, communication (internet / phone) bills, etc.

None of this is true because non-essential bills have also been shut down.

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