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3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

wsj.com

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Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#61

Post by lbeltrame »

rubber_duck wrote: post #35

And this is just the start. While I think the US response to Corona was slower than the response in my country I feel the US is the only country that's seriously discussing economic repercussions and debating the medical experts. In EU (at least in my country) it's doctors running things and we are in "stop the pandemic at all cost". Everyone is in panic due to Italy situation. But doctors are only trained to see the…

Unfortunately yes. Even if one wants to keep the quarantine at all costs, it should be a political decision, not only medical, after weighing everything.

In Italy, where I'm in my third week being shut in, experts and doctors are being quoted tiredlessly by the news: the problem is that they're doing their job (which is good!) however they do not realize the impact of their suggested measures. Not their fault by any means, but:

a. They're effectively scaring the population (an WHO advisor here suggested 6-9 months lockdown, which is likely impractical and will have devastating consequences on the social fabric, even without thinking about the economy)

b. The politicians are so scared of the virus that they're completely abdicating their functions (in Italy the Parliament was closed for two weeks, and the judicial system has been completely shut down as well) and doing whatever they're being told.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#62

Post by big_chungus »

For this not to bankrupt the nation and retard our growth for the next twenty-five years, we need to all go back to work, today. Even if coronavirus kills a million people, the rest will probably be fine in the long term. If we shut down the economy, three hundred million will be affected. This "flattening the curve" business is clearly not worth it.

You cannot shut the economy. There is only so much we can borrow. The fed is buying debt right and left, and the government surely doesn't want to borrow money and remove that liquidity. So, the fed will buy t-bills instead and probably have to inflate the currency to pay for it all. We could end up spending orders of magnitude than 2 trillion on more hand-outs, so we could end up with another period of stagflation. Unless we want to retard our growth and prosperity for the next 25 years, we all have to go back, consequences aside. Vulnerable people need to stay home for months until this blows over; it's not the responsibility of the rest of us to lose our jobs for the sake of a few others. Doctors say we have to stay home, but as doctors, they naturally want to prioritize health. As the saying goes, if you have a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

Like many other problems, there are diminishing returns as we approach either extreme of opening the economy or shutting it down. This extreme clearly isn't working. The at-risk million stay home; everyone else goes to work.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#63

Post by Kaze404 »

cjslep wrote: post #32

I grew up with the puritanical mindset of: "Your intrinsic worth as a human is the money you earn; because the money you earn is from how hard you work; and how hard you work is a reflection of your intrinsic Virtue." Thus I grew up in a family that loathes the unemployed. I really hope -- though I have grave doubts -- that this event gets through to them, so that they can have some personal growth, too.

That is the saddest thing I've ever read on this site. I know there's people who believe that but it's still shocking to me.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#64

Post by duxup »

wil421 wrote: post #56
stupandaus wrote: post #24

A few things to note: 1. These figures are only new claims as of 3/21, so the numbers will get worse. 2. This is ~2% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 3. This is nearly 5x (!) the prior record of 671K new jobless claims from 1982, and redefines the scale for jobless claims. [1] 4. This does not account for the countless gig workers that are part of the modern economy that likely did not file for unemployment s…

The financial crisis didn’t prevent most people from spending money on entertainment or eating out. People scaled back spending or went to cheaper places. People are fearful and a lot of folks are supposed to be sheltering in place. Business are being told to do takeout only which is a huge difference. I was in the restaurant industry during the last crisis. Lots of places stopped hiring and slowed down but business…

>Business are being told to do takeout only which is a huge difference.

Yeah I've been doing a fair amount of takeout and places where you had dozens of people ... operating with two or three people now.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#65

Post by phasnox »

wil421 wrote: post #56
stupandaus wrote: post #24

A few things to note: 1. These figures are only new claims as of 3/21, so the numbers will get worse. 2. This is ~2% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 3. This is nearly 5x (!) the prior record of 671K new jobless claims from 1982, and redefines the scale for jobless claims. [1] 4. This does not account for the countless gig workers that are part of the modern economy that likely did not file for unemployment s…

The financial crisis didn’t prevent most people from spending money on entertainment or eating out. People scaled back spending or went to cheaper places. People are fearful and a lot of folks are supposed to be sheltering in place. Business are being told to do takeout only which is a huge difference. I was in the restaurant industry during the last crisis. Lots of places stopped hiring and slowed down but business…

This. It makes you wonder how much long the confinement can really last.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#66

Post by lordnacho »

rubber_duck wrote: post #35

And this is just the start. While I think the US response to Corona was slower than the response in my country I feel the US is the only country that's seriously discussing economic repercussions and debating the medical experts. In EU (at least in my country) it's doctors running things and we are in "stop the pandemic at all cost". Everyone is in panic due to Italy situation. But doctors are only trained to see the…

I think it's a fair discussion to take, but how are you going to run an economy with the health service in permanent overload?

That is what would happen if you just let the thing pass. Those charts of "squashing the sombrero" have the number of beds at a very low place compared to the expected hump of cases. On some of them you can barely even see the gap between the red line and the zero line, due to the scale of the hump.

Death rates would shoot up way above what is normal for the disease, people would die of all sorts of other preventable things too.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#67

Post by packet_nerd »

jeltz wrote: post #40
NamTaf wrote: post #14

3.28 million? Really? With the lockdowns of retail, hospitality, etc. in Australia, a country of 25 million total, we've seen nearly something north of 800,000 unemployed (temporarily or permanently). This can't be an accurate figure, surely!

This is just the people who have filed last week. There is bound to be many more soon. And I am not sure everyone who have lost their jobs are eligible.

My wife and many of her coworkers quite their jobs in the last two weeks as working from home wasn't an option. My understanding is they won't be eligible for unemployment?

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#68

Post by toomuchtodo »

phasnox wrote: post #65
wil421 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The financial crisis didn’t prevent most people from spending money on entertainment or eating out. People scaled back spending or went to cheaper places. People are fearful and a lot of folks are supposed to be sheltering in place. Business are being told to do takeout only which is a huge difference. I was in the restaurant industry during the last crisis. Lots of places stopped hiring and slowed down but business…

This. It makes you wonder how much long the confinement can really last.

I imagine those less at risk will eventually give up on confinement and continue on with their lives, forcing those at risk (risk factors, 60+, immunocompromised) to remain confined voluntarily or risk a greater chance of death by venturing out. Those not at risk (younger and healthier) will be prioritized for triage and ventilator access if they do get sick.

You can't expect people to shelter in place indefinitely, and they won't.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#69

Post by Kaze404 »

big_chungus wrote: post #62

For this not to bankrupt the nation and retard our growth for the next twenty-five years, we need to all go back to work, today. Even if coronavirus kills a million people, the rest will probably be fine in the long term. If we shut down the economy, three hundred million will be affected. This "flattening the curve" business is clearly not worth it. You cannot shut the economy. There is only so much we can borrow. T…

One thing I don't understand about this line of thinking is how do you expect sick people from working? Sure, not everyone will die but a significant portion of the population will get infected and need at the very least to stay home for a week or two. How is that situation better than where we're at now?

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#70

Post by TeMPOraL »

jeltz wrote: post #43
PaulRobinson wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like you say, things are bad enough without exaggerating the situation. If you think this is all over in anything less than 4-5 years in terms of economic impact, I don't think you've understood what has really just happened and is about to happen.

I do not think anyone knows how long the recovery will take, not even the experts.

There are indicators from past problems, though. One example I've seen is that it took 17 years for airlines to recover after 9/11[0].

--

[0] - https://www.businessinsider.com/airline-stocks-recover-septe...

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