The economical impact of COVID-19 on people's lives will be far more severe than the biological one.
Hopefully this won't discourage governments from taking appropriate action once a more lethal pandemic comes.
3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
41–50 of 711 posts
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#42[deleted]
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
Things are bad enough without exaggerating the situation. The big problem with the great depression was not the size of the crash but the duration of the recovery. Our view of the money supply seems a bit more effective these days and it seems unlikely that the recession that comes out of this situation will last as long.
Like you say, things are bad enough without exaggerating the situation. If you think this is all over in anything less than 4-5 years in terms of economic impact, I don't think you've understood what has really just happened and is about to happen.
I do not think anyone knows how long the recovery will take, not even the experts.
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#44To make it sure that I understand it correctly: this is not the total number of unemployed people, but the number of people who became unemployed recently and now file the forms? Then that number is gigantic, wow.
The USA is home to ~340 million people (many people here illegally aren't counted). Only about 63.4% (~215M) of them work.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-parti...
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#45A staggering number, and unprecedented in the modern era. I'm not in the US or an America, but my (retired), Father is and for the sake of the people around him and his family I hope this is the point where the American political system - and Republicans in particular - realise that their ideologies are dead. In the UK we saw an Old-Etonian Tory Prime Minister in the space of a couple of weeks: - Effectively national…
> And maybe - just maybe - it's time everybody took another look at the UBI debate, again.
Doesn't UBI directly result in inflation and cause currency devaluation? If the money that you hold loses its value (because everyone has at the very least the same amount of money as a basic, consistent income) then it is worth nothing in the end. It is as good as having no money in my humble opinion. Money has to be valuable for it to be useful in trade. Giving away money to everyone devalues the currency.
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#46Welcome to the Great Depression of the 21st century.
Things are bad enough without exaggerating the situation. The big problem with the great depression was not the size of the crash but the duration of the recovery. Our view of the money supply seems a bit more effective these days and it seems unlikely that the recession that comes out of this situation will last as long.
From what I read from various economists, it looks like it will likely be worse than 2008. So it may not be as bad as 1929 but it will still hurt.
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#47Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is also only the beginning, as lockdowns across the nation aren’t in full swing yet.
There is usa how the implemented lockdowns work? They forced to shut down all non-essential industries and shops? Or they just suggested it? I am finding confusing information online. Like... Did they really give to the each employer the power to decide if they are essential or not?
Some governors issued edicts listing the non-essential businesses that were to be shuttered until April 23.
The policing policy is if you are spotted as still open by code or law enforcement, you can lose your operating license.
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#48Semi tangent, about dealing with mass unemployment. I like to think this event changes people's perspective on folks out of work in the US. There's a lot of recrimination, and even self loathing about being poor or out of work in the US. It doesn't seem based in reality and certainly isn't helpful. Perhaps it is time we realize that much like a pandemic things in this world change fast and we need to be able to help…
In Australia, they closed all the 'non-essential' industries. Which turns out to be about 30% of the workforce. I keep thinking that big shift will be when people come out of this they won't allow themselves to be 'non-essential' ever again. They won't take back those jobs, they'll push for agreements that guarantee a safety net.
I wonder how many people feel they have the option to not take back a job?
I have such options, exercised them a few years ago when I was 'done' with a particular industry and I wanted to change (networking to web dev, I'm so much happier with my work now), but my ability to do so was largely because the job I had done was a pretty good job pay wise (so I could save) / I received a severance, etc. The jobs that are getting shutdown are different / the people I suspect have fewer options.... at least in the US.
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#49And as an econ/business reporter points out, this should be seen as the lower bound on the true number of lost job, because there are a lot of reasons people didn't file, including confusion, overwhelmed systems, and many lost jobs not qualifying: https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1243147516784324608
It is going to be much worse.
This is the first week when the managers/companies started to pay attention to what is happening.
Small companies are going to lay people off this week/next week. Mass layoffs take time as a lot of states have something like a WARN act.
One should also remember that most of tipped restaurant industry gets tips on credit cards which are included in the next weekly/bi-weekly paychecks, which means people had money coming the week of lock down/last week. It is this weeek/next week's paychecks will have nothing in them.
Here's how you know we are starting to accept reality: Uber and Lyft miss the revenue numbers; at least one of the on demand delivery services abruptly closes. Ordering food at the markups of DoorDash/Postmates/UberEats/Grubhub is denial.
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#50Semi tangent, about dealing with mass unemployment. I like to think this event changes people's perspective on folks out of work in the US. There's a lot of recrimination, and even self loathing about being poor or out of work in the US. It doesn't seem based in reality and certainly isn't helpful. Perhaps it is time we realize that much like a pandemic things in this world change fast and we need to be able to help…
In Australia, they closed all the 'non-essential' industries. Which turns out to be about 30% of the workforce. I keep thinking that big shift will be when people come out of this they won't allow themselves to be 'non-essential' ever again. They won't take back those jobs, they'll push for agreements that guarantee a safety net.
> They won't take back those jobs, they'll push for agreements that guarantee a safety net.
This event forcing America to adopt more progressive policies after experiencing suffering without them wouldn’t be a bad thing.
Sometimes things must get worse for them to get better.