Wish I had seen this hours ago.
Their data is visualized at https://healthweather.us/
I’ve been checking this daily for the last week or so.
Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too
171–180 of 234 posts
Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too
#172Earlier quoted context omitted.
Given that US COVID19 fatalities are 1,031 today. Assuming 0.5% death rate after 3 weeks, then 3 weeks ago there were 200000 infected. Assuming cases double every 5 days, then multiply that by 2^4, therefore: The US has 3.2 million infected.
How did you come to the .5% death rate after 3 weeks assumption?
It is not an assumption just arithmetic. Median time to first symptom is 6 days. Median time from first symptom to hospitalization is 5-7 days. Median time to death is about 7 days. Add them up and the median time from contact to death is about 3 weeks.
Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too
#173Here is a reason to believe that the data is biased. If you look at any county in California - you’d see a large drop on the exact date that the statewide shelter in place was ordered. This is obviously before any of the effects of isolation would manifest themselves. The reason is likely due to larger amount of testing done due to the panic, that is not properly accounted for in their algorithm.
I whole heartedly agree. Kinsa’s data immediately shouts out that there’s a non-intuitive behavior being demonstrated.
I would also make an argument that individuals who invest in smart thermometers would be more concerned about illness than the typical population and thus highly responsive to governmental declarations of states emergency.
I think it’s really hard and misleading to look at this data and make any larger conclusions.
Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too
#174Earlier quoted context omitted.
Given that US COVID19 fatalities are 1,031 today. Assuming 0.5% death rate after 3 weeks, then 3 weeks ago there were 200000 infected. Assuming cases double every 5 days, then multiply that by 2^4, therefore: The US has 3.2 million infected.
How did you come to the .5% death rate after 3 weeks assumption?
Pick whatever numbers you think are reasonable based on the data you have read - I think you will end up with a worrying result.
I use this analysis because the number of deaths is hard to fudge, and the fatality rate after x days, and the infection rate are somewhat measurable (I believe there are statistically valid measurements of those numbers).
Any analysis based upon detected cases is deeply flawed IMHO, because detected cases can be anything (look at different countries with wildly different values with no basis in reality).
Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too
#175Earlier quoted context omitted.
This current situation had me wondering how hard it would be to coordinate a regular -- maybe not yearly -- global self-isolation for say 2-3 weeks at a time. Aside from the difficulties of getting everyone in the world to agree that the first three weeks of February during a leap year are observed through social distance, it doesn't seem like it would be as bad on a recurring basis as it is during an emergency like…
I have a feeling that a lot of people will have happy memories from this time, except for those that have lost loved ones or facing the hell of trying to save those that are infected. I was talking about this today on a midday walk with my wife (which would have never been possible in other circumstances). With enough fond memories and fears of a repeat, an annual social distancing tradition may actually have the pos…
Most people won't. Many average people are going to lose their jobs or business and go broke, or be cooped up in a tiny apartment for weeks and months.
Some of us are lucky enough to be able to weather this without severe downsides. But we're in the minority.
Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too
#176Earlier quoted context omitted.
There has also been a decrease in traffic accidents and violent crime. This is data from hospital casualty units in South Africa
I’m purely guessing, but maybe the traffic deaths have decreased linearly with traffic, and violent crime in some porportion to gathering size. That is to say, that it’s due to less activity and not a changed mindset.
I doubt traffic accidents and traffic have a linear correlation. I would assume it looks very different depending on the density of the traffic, i.e. not linear at all.
Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too
#177Earlier quoted context omitted.
I wouldn't justify a lockdown for cars because there are other ways to beat cars than locking everyone in their homes. Point: I don't have a car, yet I'm locked in my home right now. Hmmmmm. And yes, I would support forbidding cars altogether for most things they're used for today that can be done with different vehicles.
Would you support forbidding cars in neighborhoods designed around the car, e.g., most American suburbs planned after 1950, or would you limit the ban to neighborhoods planned after the start of the ban?
Is my opinion on the exact details of the implementation of a non-existant car ban really that relevant?
Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too
#178Earlier quoted context omitted.
A coordinated reduction of time spent in groups doesn't have to be extreme to have a pretty big impact on infection transmission. Like state health departments could declare that influenza is trending in the state and businesses could have less face to face meetings, and maybe churches cancel some of their non-worship gatherings, and so on. For example, the orange scenario on https://covidactnow.org/state/MI includes…
Dr Katz wrote in the NYT; “I am deeply concerned that the social, economic and public health consequences of this near total meltdown of normal life — schools and businesses closed, gatherings banned — will be long lasting and calamitous, possibly graver than the direct toll of the virus itself. The stock market will bounce back in time, but many businesses never will. The unemployment, impoverishment and despair lik…
That paragraph doesn't describe social distancing, it describes the government ordering everything closed.
But whatever, we can call the thing where we take simple, effective public health measures that do not have grave economic impacts something else.
(the irony to me is that reducing the spread of things like flu would have economic benefits, many of which would be concentrated with those that are economically vulnerable)
Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too
#179Influenza only has an R0 of 1.3. I really wonder if we’ve managed to push it below 1.0 world wide. Pretty wild to think about. 1.3 really isn’t that much. What if all the new people who’ve started washing their hands keeps it below 1.0?
And then we would get an pandemic of another influenza type virus rushing through the population like wildfire because nobody is immune. It's very difficult to completely eliminate infections (even polio is still around despite extensive immunisation), especially if it mutates as much as influenza. A little known fact btw, most of the influenza virii are descendents of the Spanish flu which have mutated to be less de…
> It's very difficult to completely eliminate infections (even polio is still around despite extensive immunisation),
This is only the case because some people are refusing vaccinations, or not able to get them.
Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too
#180Here is a reason to believe that the data is biased. If you look at any county in California - you’d see a large drop on the exact date that the statewide shelter in place was ordered. This is obviously before any of the effects of isolation would manifest themselves. The reason is likely due to larger amount of testing done due to the panic, that is not properly accounted for in their algorithm.
For what it's worth, some populations began isolating before the shelter in place order. I went to Ranch 99 on 2/28 and panic buying was already in full swing. Lots of masks. I think the Chinese community was very proactive and took action early. It left an impression on me and I started WFH full time. I think that was the day they announced the second community infection in Santa Clara county.