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Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

qz.com

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Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#161

Post by vidarh »

saalweachter wrote: post #113
andreygrehov wrote: post #94

Randall Munroe did a small section on eradicating the common cold in his What-if book, the basic idea is if that all of humanity stayed away from each other for a week or two then the common cold would die out as it can't survive outside of the human body for more than a week and normally survives by continuously hopping from host to host.

This current situation had me wondering how hard it would be to coordinate a regular -- maybe not yearly -- global self-isolation for say 2-3 weeks at a time. Aside from the difficulties of getting everyone in the world to agree that the first three weeks of February during a leap year are observed through social distance, it doesn't seem like it would be as bad on a recurring basis as it is during an emergency like…

The difficulty of getting compliance even in the face of a scary new threat should give a good deal of indication of how hard it'd be.

And the speed with which it spreads in a population that has little immunity against the current strain should be a good indication of how little you'd save.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#162

Post by _ph_ »

zaroth wrote: post #92
sudoaza wrote: post #4

I was hoping for this, lets do social distancing a tradition for every winter

I’m just trying to get my head around this... I wonder if people are just ignorant of the widespread devastation caused by the lockdown, if they feel like people devastated by the lockdown did not “do enough to prepare” and so somehow deserve it, if they somehow believe people will be made whole by trillion dollar handouts, or what? I personally know two family businesses which have laid off all their employees and m…

Besides that I consider this discussion mostly theoretical as I doubt that one would get large enough parts of the population to agree - they are not even agreeing to erradicate diseases we could easily erradicate, like the measels - a planned limited shut down wouldn't be very disruptive.

Here it Europe, it is quite common for businesses to shut entirely down for a few weeks every year. The reason is managing employee vacations. It is easier managing this by shutting down entirely. Even the big car companies have two weeks every year, where the production is mostly shut down. And even many US companies have mandatory shut-downs on thanksgiving or christmas.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#163

Post by cycomanic »

mrfusion wrote: post #49

Influenza only has an R0 of 1.3. I really wonder if we’ve managed to push it below 1.0 world wide. Pretty wild to think about. 1.3 really isn’t that much. What if all the new people who’ve started washing their hands keeps it below 1.0?

And then we would get an pandemic of another influenza type virus rushing through the population like wildfire because nobody is immune. It's very difficult to completely eliminate infections (even polio is still around despite extensive immunisation), especially if it mutates as much as influenza.

A little known fact btw, most of the influenza virii are descendents of the Spanish flu which have mutated to be less deadly.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#164

Post by lukevdp »

saalweachter wrote: post #113
andreygrehov wrote: post #94

Randall Munroe did a small section on eradicating the common cold in his What-if book, the basic idea is if that all of humanity stayed away from each other for a week or two then the common cold would die out as it can't survive outside of the human body for more than a week and normally survives by continuously hopping from host to host.

This current situation had me wondering how hard it would be to coordinate a regular -- maybe not yearly -- global self-isolation for say 2-3 weeks at a time. Aside from the difficulties of getting everyone in the world to agree that the first three weeks of February during a leap year are observed through social distance, it doesn't seem like it would be as bad on a recurring basis as it is during an emergency like…

> This current situation had me wondering how hard it would be to coordinate a regular -- maybe not yearly -- global self-isolation for say 2-3 weeks at a time.

Very hard. We can’t even properly do it in the face of this pandemic.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#165

Post by timwaagh »

saalweachter wrote: post #113
andreygrehov wrote: post #94

Randall Munroe did a small section on eradicating the common cold in his What-if book, the basic idea is if that all of humanity stayed away from each other for a week or two then the common cold would die out as it can't survive outside of the human body for more than a week and normally survives by continuously hopping from host to host.

This current situation had me wondering how hard it would be to coordinate a regular -- maybe not yearly -- global self-isolation for say 2-3 weeks at a time. Aside from the difficulties of getting everyone in the world to agree that the first three weeks of February during a leap year are observed through social distance, it doesn't seem like it would be as bad on a recurring basis as it is during an emergency like…

Economically you need to take into account that a lot of people barely get sick from flu. Certainly not two weeks a year.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#166

Post by reilly3000 »

saalweachter wrote: post #113
andreygrehov wrote: post #94

Randall Munroe did a small section on eradicating the common cold in his What-if book, the basic idea is if that all of humanity stayed away from each other for a week or two then the common cold would die out as it can't survive outside of the human body for more than a week and normally survives by continuously hopping from host to host.

This current situation had me wondering how hard it would be to coordinate a regular -- maybe not yearly -- global self-isolation for say 2-3 weeks at a time. Aside from the difficulties of getting everyone in the world to agree that the first three weeks of February during a leap year are observed through social distance, it doesn't seem like it would be as bad on a recurring basis as it is during an emergency like…

I have a feeling that a lot of people will have happy memories from this time, except for those that have lost loved ones or facing the hell of trying to save those that are infected. I was talking about this today on a midday walk with my wife (which would have never been possible in other circumstances). With enough fond memories and fears of a repeat, an annual social distancing tradition may actually have the possibility of traction.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#167

Post by [deleted] »

ineedasername wrote: post #28

There could be some selection bias here. It's based on thermometer readings from Kinsa. And the articles states: Kinsa is receiving two to three times more thermometer readings per day than in previous flu seasons Many more people may be taking thermometer reading that don't really need to, but are being cautious. That would cause the appearance of a proportional drop in high temp readings compared to prior years whe…

[deleted]

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#168

Post by nonbel »

dcftoapv wrote: post #136
rossdavidh wrote: post #89

It's fascinating data, and I'm glad it's being taken, but...I am a bit skeptical that we can draw any reasonable conclusions from it without limiting the data to long-term users. It seems implausible that there has not been a significant change in the health-consciousness of the typical purchaser in the last month or two, vs. prior to that. I can't tell you what the change would be, but I find it highly implausible t…

Agreed, but this study can certainly be used as part of a larger triangulation. A guy I worked with pointed out that this was happening in Japan about a month ago: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/21/national/influe...

But who is going to go to a doctor/hospital for the flu when they are scared of catching sars2 there?

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#169

Post by tomerico »

Here is a reason to believe that the data is biased. If you look at any county in California - you’d see a large drop on the exact date that the statewide shelter in place was ordered. This is obviously before any of the effects of isolation would manifest themselves.

The reason is likely due to larger amount of testing done due to the panic, that is not properly accounted for in their algorithm.

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