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CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come

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Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come

#241

Post by [deleted] »

AlexCoventry wrote: post #228
AlexCoventry wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Trump administration has responded quite slowly compared to the Obama administration's response to H1N1. The CDC commenced emergency operations a week after the first H1N1 case was detected, and advised school closings less than a week after that [0]. It seems likely that Trump's unfavorable comparison of the Obama H1N1 response to his COVID-19 response will come back to haunt him [1]. We'd be extremely lucky to…

I'm curious about why this is being downvoted.

[deleted]

Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come

#242

Post by daveslash »

pbhjpbhj wrote: post #183
wideasleep1 wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agree, but it's not so cut and dry. https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/23/face-masks-much-more-t... edit: speaking of cut and dry..men should be clean-shaven to ensure snug fit.

Interesting preface. In the UK we were told that masks were simply not effective, there was no need for them, they would not hinder the spread of infection. Similarly with closing schools: "the gov has this special plan that uses herd immunity, you idiot, so we don't need to close schools" [actually it's always "Boris has a plan", I can't understand why -- if it's the PM's plan then it's probably entirely ignorant of…

I wonder if there was a lie of omission by the health professionals: "N95 Masks won't help the spread [because the general public will touch their face without washing their hands after removing the mask, thus masking the mask a moot point]" ~ the brackets representing the "lie of omission" part. I honestly don't know, just wondering out loud...

Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come

#243

Post by wideasleep1 »

daveslash wrote: post #242
pbhjpbhj wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting preface. In the UK we were told that masks were simply not effective, there was no need for them, they would not hinder the spread of infection. Similarly with closing schools: "the gov has this special plan that uses herd immunity, you idiot, so we don't need to close schools" [actually it's always "Boris has a plan", I can't understand why -- if it's the PM's plan then it's probably entirely ignorant of…

I wonder if there was a lie of omission by the health professionals: "N95 Masks won't help the spread [because the general public will touch their face without washing their hands after removing the mask, thus masking the mask a moot point]" ~ the brackets representing the "lie of omission" part. I honestly don't know, just wondering out loud...

That, and I think disposable nitrile type gloves are way underplayed as well. They're easy to remove inside-out, limiting exposure when disposing. I remove one to get into the car (clean hand on handle), get inside, hold empty glove in other gloved hand, and pull second glove over first glove to contain it. Probably saw this on ER or some show years ago.

Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come

#244

Post by BLKNSLVR »

Gatsky wrote: post #119

The problem is a global lack of preparation for a pandemic of this nature, despite multiple warning shots in the last couple of decades. The problem is incompetent, complacent government, and the political processes which enable it, and lately, even reward it. Blaming the CDC seems pointless. There are any number of institutions which could have done better. The thing is you don't want to be relying on everything goi…

> The problem is incompetent, complacent government, and the political processes which enable it, and lately, even reward it.

Whilst I entirely agree with this statement, I actually doubt that any political party that stood on a platform of pandemic-preparedness, and the budgetary spending required for such, would have been voted into Government anyway.

We, the people, have been voting for that which we believe to advantage us as individuals based on the political rhetoric / media spin we're turning in to.

We, the people, get the Governments we deserve.

Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come

#245

Post by greedo »

robomartin wrote: post #222
JDulin wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These problems are not due to an "administration". The rot of American institutions is deep. The competence and coherence of the entire American civil service and civil life has fallen precipitously in the last 20 years, and, in part because of their irrational fixation on this administration, people still cannot wrap theirs head around the fact that problem is in personnel and structure. The CDC botched the developm…

You are being kind. From my perspective, the ineptitude and mismanagement easily goes back 50 years, not 20. It's sad to see so many people blinded by the hatred aimed at Trump to be completely blind to how it is we got here. A simple example from data that came out today: Governor Cuomo refused to buy 16,000 ventilators in 2015, when he was told they would be needed for an event such as what we are experiencing. Rem…

Most of my life I've been told that government is horrible, and that the most terrifying thing to hear is "I'm from the government, and I'm here to help." When an entire generation hears the demonization of civil service (though not military service), then it's no wonder that we end up with a government that can't serve us.

Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come

#246

Post by greedo »

kiba wrote: post #172
H8crilA wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uhm, yes, skin in the game? Things generally don't improve because people get better. Things generally improve because bad people/groups/corporations/ideas fail. Way more people should be fired / tried / impeached. Need I remind you that nobody went to jail over 2008? It does make the system more healthy. If you're responsible for the health of some country you better be scared , because the consequences are dire, an…

Things generally don't improve because people get better. Things generally improve because bad people/groups/corporations/ideas fail. Things improve when we endeavor to make things better and test our ideas and willingness to learn from mistakes, especially so if we prioritize pandemic preparation. Punishing people for their mistakes lead to people hiding their mistakes, not trying their damn hardest not to make a mi…

I think people who mismanage situations should be fired. We fire our POTUS roughly every 8 years. My mgmt has made decisions during the pandemic that have endangered me and my coworkers. I think they should be fired as well.

Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come

#247

Post by RickJWagner »

DocSavage wrote: post #201
omgwtfbyobbq wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There may be structural problems, but the current administration contributed significantly the poor response to this epidemic. Had they kept existing infrastructure and people in place, things could have gone significantly better. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-... https://blog.ucsusa.org/anita-desikan/trump-administration-h...

There's a lot to be said about WH-level leaders with the authority to corral and force action down the chain. It's bad enough that the CDC and FDA screwed up, but there was no urgency from the top-down that solutions had to be rolled out in a timely matter or alternatives had to be explored even in parallel. You see the difference now, when there's a sense of urgency, and we are willing to break rules, engage lots of…

And the lateral side. Even right now, Congress is bickering about a relief bill, stuffing it with unrelated pork while people die.

There is plenty of blame (and some praise, too) to go around.

Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come

#248

Post by tunesmith »

Jommi wrote: post #236
processing wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm planning to still self-isolate beyond that for now. The median duration of viral shedding is 20 days according to the research out of Wuhan. The longest observed duration of viral shedding in survivors was 37 days. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

Vital shedding does not necessarily mean you are contagious with the virus.

I'd like to know more information about this. Some sources really do refer to viral shedding as a source of contagion, others refer to it as simply reducing viral load (getting well).

Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come

#249

Post by mercutio2 »

jMyles wrote: post #229
mercutio2 wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People keep repeating this idea that there's no basis for guessing the denominator of the CFR. This is silly. The denominator of CFR is the number of people positively identified as having the disease. This isn't something that needs guessing. The problem is that the general population doesn't understand that you can't project from a CFR at one instant in time to the actual fatality rate in the population. But there'…

You are responding to arguments that nobody (at least that I've seen) are making. This has nothing to do with terms of art. The WHO used the CFR at a moment when every expert was pointing out that the vast majority of cases were unknown and unreported. If the WHO wanted to publish a specific report, outlining their methodology, and including the (not very useful) CFR, that'd have been fine, and in keeping with what w…

Sure, there's a sizable denominator problem. That people misunderstand what CFR is is a problem, too.

If we want to know how lethal the virus is, we need sampling of who actually has contracted it, which is tough in the early stages of a pandemic.

Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come

#250

Post by grey-area »

013a wrote: post #93
grey-area wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This lacklustre response is still going on, the federal government simply isn’t taking this seriously. Trump saying things will open up in just a few weeks and it’s important to restart the economy will cost thousands of lives by encouraging states not to lock down. Full lock down is now the only way out, and as it has spread, that will take months. Testing needs to massively ramp up too. 2000 people died in one day…

There is a very real, if hidden, cost to economic suppression, especially in the United States where social safety nets are few and far between. There's a line in the Big Short: "Whenever unemployment drops 1%, 40,000 people die". Surprisingly; this is more or less true, not movie drama. Its obviously difficult to draw causation between these two things, but there is causation. People have reduced access to healthcar…

There absolutely are compromises to be made, which are not being made in the US and should be (distinguishing essential from non-essential, sending everyone else home to work at home if they can, locking down all social activity). No country is resilient to stopping, and no state is unique in this or an island.

The numbers above went up to 2.4k dead in 24 hours since I posted.

We are gong to enter a global recession or even depression because of the worldwide response, and I agree people are going to die from the economic impact, but the alternative is much worse.

Listen to Cuomo on this, please.

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