The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say • Hacker News Board

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#161

Post by Proziam » Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 1:07 AM UTC

notJim wrote: post #138

Proziam wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see you're being downvoted, but I don't sense any malice in your post. You're also not incorrect in your assessment, but your scope is a bit limited. There are far more than just undocumented immigrants who can't afford to stay home and will have to do whatever they can do to keep life going for themselves. This is true everywhere, not just the US. The last to comply won't be holding out due to malice or ignorance,…

Immigration status has absolutely nothing to do with it. There are undocumented immigrants who can afford it, and undocumented immigrants who cannot. The relevant factor is someone's financial position, not their immigration status. Regardless of intent, the parent comment singles out a demonized population of people. This is not constructive or helpful.

> Immigration status has absolutely nothing to do with it.

This is the sort of obvious nonsense that gets in the way of constructive solutions. Undocumented immigrants aren't getting stable employment or social benefits. Nor can they rely on the medical system or any local or federal institutions for support. They are, with absolute certainty, an identifiable group where an extraordinary majority are undoubtedly in a situation where compliance will be terrifying, if not impossible.

Pretending they are being 'targeted' or 'demonized' in this thread is pure intellectual dishonesty. The reason they're being discussed is because they are in the position they are in, and because that situation creates a need for special care and attention.

> This is not constructive or helpful.

Actually, it is. Considering they we have millions of people who might be unable to comply, for totally logical and non-malicious reasons, is constructive.

You know what's not constructive? Putting blinders on and conveniently ignoring an entire group of people who may find themselves in dire financial and medical situations, and who can potentially spread the virus to others unintentionally. This isn't demonization. This is reality. Nobody in this thread is saying 'Let's deport/kill/refuse care to all the illegals!' These people need to eat just like the rest of us, let's not pretend they just don't exist.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#162

Post by perl4ever » Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 1:11 AM UTC

ShorsHammer wrote: post #76

palijer wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think preventing the almost guaranteed deaths of thousands is qualified as a "little" safety.

What actions do you think should be taken to stop other preventable deaths? I'm in a country that has banned all unnecessary movement, traffic/pedestrian accidents have dropped dramatically, it has saved magnitudes more from dying than from covid-19. Logically, all movement be banned then? Keen to hear a rationalisation for 10 traffic lives vs 1 contagious virus life. 10 people have died in 3 months since the virus w…

You seem to be saying that fighting coronavirus has the side effect of reducing traffic deaths, but then you put "traffic lives" against "contagious virus lives". It doesn't make sense to speak of tradeoffs when you just said the same measures deal with both. Where is the conflict that your rhetorical framework relies on?

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#163

Post by mythrwy » Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 1:47 AM UTC

tines wrote: post #4

In other words, it won't be stopped.

Until it runs it's course or we have a vaccine. But we do have some measure of control on the timing of this.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#164

Post by yummypaint » Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 2:28 AM UTC

drinchev wrote: post #68

Back in time ( end of January ) when I heard the news about Wuhan and what happened there I was a bit worried, but always positive. When the virus spread in Italy ( I live in Berlin ) I was daily asking "Why don't they stop people from / to Italy?", "Why don't they go and help Italy?", "Where is a plan for handling the situation?", "Why nobody knows >how All in all the answers were : "They don't want to kill the econ…

Yeah it's a fundamental failure of government. One key function of government is to hedge against and plan for unlikely but serious scenarios just like these, especially when there is no money to be made by doing what's in the public interest. Helping to deal with crises like this is a big part of why epidemiological research gets public funding. Despite this deep underlying infrastructure, the weakest link is usually whoever is in power at the moment doing things like disbanding pandemic response groups and censoring experts.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#165

Post by selimthegrim » Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 5:18 AM UTC

triceratops wrote: post #150

selimthegrim wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a resident of New Orleans I can categorically tell you 99% of those assholes in the pictures on Bourbon St were tourists taking advantage of cheap tickets

I figured 99% of the people on Bourbon St (apart from the workers) were always tourists. I couldn't see myself ever wanting to go there if I lived in New Orleans.

Locals do go there but usually well after midnight

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#166

Post by tim333 » Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 5:57 AM UTC

danmaz74 wrote: post #7

I'm an Italian living in the UK, so I've been following both the stats and the debate in Italy (and elsewhere) very closely. My conclusion is that whoever thinks that this problem can be not stopped, but contained to a manageable level without very strict steps is in for a bad surprise. And, given the exponential nature of initial growth, the earlier these steps are adopted, the less harsh they need to be.

One hopeful thing from Italy is Vo Euganeo where they stopped it completely by testing everyone and separating those who had it. Nothing harsh, just a lot of testing https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-...

Now obviously there are scaling issues going from 3300 people to millions but I'm not sure it's impossible. S Korea also mostly controlled things by testing.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#167

Post by JoshuaDavid » Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 9:05 AM UTC

simias wrote: post #67

MiguelVieira wrote: post #10

It feels like Europe and the US only have a few options: * Let the virus run its course and accept a huge death count. * Continue the lockdowns for months, strangling the economy. * Do what's in this article and allow life and the economy to return to normal. * Hope for a miracle. Am I missing something?

They could find an effective cure that would make managing the disease a lot easier. We could let the disease spread if we had a reliable way of curing people and reducing the death rate to an acceptable level. After all we don't go on lockdown every year during flu season. Maybe you put that in the "miracle" bullet point but I think that's a bit pessimistic.

That is firmly in the "miracle" bucket.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#168

Post by CaptArmchair » Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 9:21 AM UTC

brmgb wrote: post #159

CaptArmchair wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What we understand under "mutation" consists of 2 basic facts: * During replication of cells, DNA changes happen by accident and random chance. This yields random new traits. * A random trait might be useful to survival and reproduction, or it might be a hindrance. Maybe a trait that was once beneficial becomes a hindrance when the environment in which an organism lives shifts (i.e. higher Ph values of a pond of wate…

> The goal of a virus is to spread genetic material, killing its host is an inadvertent second order effect of replication. As an aside, I find it very amusing that you used this sentence after your paragraphes on emergent behavior and randomness. Finalism and anthropomorphism are really hard to avoid even when you clearly know virus have no goal.

Ha! Thanks for pointing that out! :-) It's really hard to avoid indeed! And you're totally right!

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#169

Post by boomdiada » Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 12:00 PM UTC

jkachmar wrote: post #149

boomdiada wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mentioned this in a sibling comment. I don't believe that this interpretation of OP is very charitable. Regardless of the politics of undocumented immigrants, you have to account for how you are going to service these people. This group is currently living outside of the system. To combat COVID19, we need them to participate inside of this system. This isn't actually a bad thing to point out and it SUPPORTS the "un…

> This group is currently living outside of the system. I think that the point that I’m trying to make (as are others in this thread) is that there are many more people who are “living outside the system” when we consider “the system” to be those who can get treatment and afford to distance themselves from others (i.e. stay home from work or work remote). Expressing concern about the problem that undocumented immigra…

Please...

> Raising the concern about undocumented immigrants inhibiting our recovery effort is naïvely misinformed at best and a dogwhistle for encouraging discriminatory behavior at worst.

This type of comment is really unproductive.

OPs comment is easily read as the opposite of what you're suggesting. Again, this is easily pro immigration/healthcare for all.

This isn't the racist you're looking for.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#170

Post by turbojerry » Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 12:15 PM UTC

tim333 wrote: post #166

danmaz74 wrote: post #7

I'm an Italian living in the UK, so I've been following both the stats and the debate in Italy (and elsewhere) very closely. My conclusion is that whoever thinks that this problem can be not stopped, but contained to a manageable level without very strict steps is in for a bad surprise. And, given the exponential nature of initial growth, the earlier these steps are adopted, the less harsh they need to be.

One hopeful thing from Italy is Vo Euganeo where they stopped it completely by testing everyone and separating those who had it. Nothing harsh, just a lot of testing https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-... Now obviously there are scaling issues going from 3300 people to millions but I'm not sure it's impossible. S Korea also mostly controlled things by testing.

Training the postal service to be able to take nasal swabs could scale this though you would need to robocall all those on the postal route what time to present themselves at the edge of their property. Starting with geographic locations where there have been clusters, then individual cases, then the general population. Also when an antibody test is available have them delivered by the postal service with instructions and URL for a video on how to administer it.