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The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

nytimes.com

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Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#61

Post by capableweb »

nradov wrote: post #46
capableweb wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in Spain. Yesterday I saw a group of five people standing together in the dog park, about 2 meters apart from each other. Good thing they are practicing social distancing, but their dogs were still playing with each other. We're indeed being laughed at, and rightfully so. Many people are not taking the lock down serious here.

There is no evidence that dogs can spread coronavirus to humans. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/animals.ht...

Surely they can't be infected but I know that when I get sick, I have a lot close contact with my dogs, which includes that they sometimes get saliva on them (sleeping on them and drooling and/or coughing near them), which means their fur would carry the virus.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#62

Post by de_watcher »

nradov wrote: post #46
capableweb wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in Spain. Yesterday I saw a group of five people standing together in the dog park, about 2 meters apart from each other. Good thing they are practicing social distancing, but their dogs were still playing with each other. We're indeed being laughed at, and rightfully so. Many people are not taking the lock down serious here.

There is no evidence that dogs can spread coronavirus to humans. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/animals.ht...

Virus stays on surfaces for some time.

Dogs have surfaces.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#63

Post by oefrha »

bamboozled wrote: post #40
oefrha wrote: post #5

If there’s anything the current debacles in Europe and the U.S. has taught us, it’s that selfish and/or irrational jerks abound, and asking nicely doesn’t work at all.

Maybe it takes time to adjust after they were told for weeks it was a hoax? You're blaming the wrong people.

I’m not actually blaming the jerks (which is rather pointless, jerks will be jerks), I’m blaming governments for ostensibly believing jerks don’t exist and asking nicely is enough.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#64

Post by drclau »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #59
drclau wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know why you were downvoted. Maybe because of the second sentence? Mutation is a very real problem. After all flu goes through it all the time. That is the main reason why we get flu regularly. Second reason is that the immunity may be temporary.

Influenza is not a coronavirus: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orthomyxoviridae https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus

You are right, I edited it out. The mutation remains a potential issue though.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#65

Post by DennisP »

kabapadum wrote: post #33
_y5hn wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are two sides of this coin, that are sort of mutually exclusive: 1) On one hand, it's sort of a "competition" to gain "herd immunity". Of course if this is achievable, every country would want this, but not while disrupting civil society. So the measures makes sense for controllable scenarios, if introduction is managable. 2) COVID-19 is a completely new ( "Novela" ) virus. We don't know long-term health impact…

COVID-19 is a completely new (Novela) virus. That's not true. Coronaviruses did exist, and they are not new. //"Me Only"-mantra is unsustainable.// Exactly opposite, we will see in the near future that the government which one destroyed their economy will eat shit in next years.

> The overall molecular structure of this virus is distinct from the known coronaviruses and instead most closely resembles viruses found in bats and pangolins that had been little studied and never known to cause humans any harm.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-not-human-made-in-la...

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#66

Post by palijer »

ShorsHammer wrote: post #36

South Korea has virtually no new active cases daily, only 100 deaths after 4 months of exposure and hasn't brought in any laws even close the authoritarian stuff that is going on elsewhere across the planet in the name of covid-19/sars-cov-2 Buyer beware. Undoing laws and measures is a lot harder than enacting them in a "crisis". "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deser…

I don't think preventing the almost guaranteed deaths of thousands is qualified as a "little" safety.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#67

Post by simias »

MiguelVieira wrote: post #10

It feels like Europe and the US only have a few options: * Let the virus run its course and accept a huge death count. * Continue the lockdowns for months, strangling the economy. * Do what's in this article and allow life and the economy to return to normal. * Hope for a miracle. Am I missing something?

They could find an effective cure that would make managing the disease a lot easier. We could let the disease spread if we had a reliable way of curing people and reducing the death rate to an acceptable level. After all we don't go on lockdown every year during flu season.

Maybe you put that in the "miracle" bullet point but I think that's a bit pessimistic.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#68

Post by drinchev »

Back in time ( end of January ) when I heard the news about Wuhan and what happened there I was a bit worried, but always positive. When the virus spread in Italy ( I live in Berlin ) I was daily asking "Why don't they stop people from / to Italy?", "Why don't they go and help Italy?", "Where is a plan for handling the situation?", "Why nobody knows >howAll in all the answers were : "They don't want to kill the economy, that's why no restrictions.", "We are democracy, that's why no restrictions."

Look at the situation now. Killed economy, unstoppable virus and nobody knows for how long. They can't contain it anymore. What we do is flattening the curve, not eliminating the thread.

Come on. These politicians, IMO should be investigated for committing crime agains humanity. I can't believe that in 2020 there is no such thing as emergency procedure / plan in case of ... well ... emergency. I tend to think that all government decision makers make a "daily" for what should happen today and then wait for tomorrow, with no further planning.

That's just irresponsible.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#69

Post by baybal2 »

Mass testing, and quarantine is very simple.

Tell me why what some countries in Africa managed to do to reverse trends in their countries early, cannot be done in the West.

Instead, the West went to listen to bizarre "management" theories, over something clear, and obvious.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#70

Post by smichel17 »

oefrha wrote: post #15
mrdrozdov wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t believe most people are jerks. They are just in disbelief that such a dire situation is possible. Yes, it’s important to ask and with a high level of seriousness. If the internet has taught me anything, it’s that people need to read something 8 or more times before fully internalizing it.

I didn’t say most people, I said “abound”. Even 5% of people ignoring “asking nicely” could deal critical damage containment efforts, and I suspect the number is more than 5%.

The Imperial College report[1] found suppression to be effective even with much less compliance. Here are the different measures they modeled and the assumed compliance, taken from the table on page 6 of the report and edited out the info about assumed impact on transmission, for brevity.

> Case isolation in the home — Assume 70% compliance — Symptomatic cases stay at home for 7 days. Household contacts remain unchanged.

> Voluntary home quarantine — Assume 50% compliance — Following identification of a symptomaticcase in the household, all household members remain at home for 14 days.

> Social distancing of those over 70 years of age — Assume 75% compliance

> Social distancing of entire population — Assume 75% reduced contact outside household, school or workplace (the wording here is different, does not mention "compliance")

> Closure of schools and universities — 100% of schools, 75% of universities

I would recommend reading the report. Unlike certain summaries, the report itself is very clear about all the assumptions baked in, and so you won't get a false sense of "This is 100% how it will be". (That said, I'm not questioning their numbers since I think they're likely more accurate than any I could come up with myself).

[1]: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...

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