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Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

nytimes.com

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Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#51

Post by tobylane »

losteric wrote: post #26
lol768 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So many people and businesses are able to live beyond their means because of access to credit. If we eliminate the ability to create credit, then consumption would drop to a sustainable level and pollution would also drop and we would see an end to wasteful businesses, products, processes, and ways of life. What about housing? A mortgage is going to be the only way for a lot of people to ever afford their own home.

Well, to question your premise - Why is universal home ownership desirable or necessary?

Because tenants rights are poor? The difference in safety felt between owning and renting is related to perception of tenants rights. I think they (the difference and the rights) vary accordingly worldwide.

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#52

Post by zaroth »

_bxg1 wrote: post #37
zaroth wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A population’s physical health is very highly correlated with their economic health. [1] If COVID-19 has a significant impact on carbon emissions it’s because it caused significant economic depression. A significant economic depression dramatically increases poverty levels, and increasing poverty would cost significantly more lives even than will be lost to COVID itself. [2] The life expectancy gap between the poores…

> The life expectancy gap between the poorest and wealthiest Americans is about 15 years . That's a function of our broken system, not our overall wealth as a nation. Poverty in the U.S. has been increasing alongside GDP for years now. Restoring the economy to the way it was won't solve that.

The life expectancy versus poverty correlation is observed consistently worldwide.

Poverty rates in the US peaked at 15% in 2010 and have been going down since. Last year 11.8%. [1]

Poverty causes a lot of damage, see for example, opioid deaths.

[1] - https://www.statista.com/statistics/200463/us-poverty-rate-s...

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#53

Post by specialist »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #42
toomuchtodo wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All great points, and the time to start taxing carbon is now at this low price, as the shock to consumers won’t be as great.

You could make a great case for carbon tax + dividend right now, because people aren't driving as much and the people staying at home get the dividend too, so in addition to the economic impact of the tax being blunted by the low oil prices, you're also creating a net transfer to the people most impacted by having to stay at home. And giving people more financial incentive to stay at home instead of going out and spr…

"great case for carbon tax + dividend"

Squint a bit and Canada's carbon dividend looks like UBI.

I'm fully on board.

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#54

Post by sixdimensional »

nicoburns wrote: post #3

Is anyone else wondering if the shutdown for COVID-19 will have a significant impact on carbon emissions? If it does, then it could actually save far more lives than it takes.

Yes, and I am waiting for the next updates on CO2 from Mauna Loa, HI to see if there is even a tiny blip in the rate of increase during the shutdown. So far, I can’t tell if there has been any meaningful change to the pattern. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#56

Post by nogabebop23 »

specialist wrote: post #49
gdubs wrote: post #4

I’ve been thinking a lot about the next looming crisis: Climate Change. On Bloomberg radio a few weeks ago, an analyst / money manager was talking about how his firm was looking at satellite imagery of pollution in China to measure their economic recovery. More pollution == “better”. Something is clearly unsustainable with that formula. Like the virus, the longer we wait to take action, the more expensive it is and t…

Tangentially, this crisis may accelerate transition from fossil fuels to renewables. Reduced demand lowers both prices and cash flow. Many operators will no longer be able to service their debts. Resulting in bankruptcy. Coal was already in a downward spiral. Now that crude oil is down to $30, fracking is no longer viable. IIRC, Shale was off the board at $60/barrel. Etc. Even more tangentially: I support keeping our…

>> Reduced demand lowers both prices and cash flow. Many operators will no longer be able to service their debts. Resulting in bankruptcy.

This is largely a result of long-term excessive supply during a period of (relatively) short-term demand reduction though. This makes the huge upfront costs in renewables very unappetizing, and their variable costs less competitive.

I think we would need a much longer demand disruption to "reset" the capital outlay decision back to one of net-new fossil vs. net-new renewable, when we would actually have a chance of switching energy streams. If demand picks up by Q3 we will just ramp up existing O&G supply.

FWIW I work in the asset planning field for energy where we are often concerned with NPV of the entire project. If you can start to get close with renewables lots of primarily fossil-based energy companies will move forward, but I don't see the numbers yet without massive subsidies or taxes.

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#58

Post by mmhsieh »

most commutes are BS. a lot of work does not need to be done in an office. a lot of office politics can be cut down when communications are proportionately more heavily documented. typical overhead for a single seat in the metro where I work is $50K a year. there was already a move to hoteling and telework. tremendous efficiencies gained in this should be retained. better for the environment, bottom lines, quality of life of workers. managers with the 20th century face-time attitude: deal with it.

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#59

Post by nogabebop23 »

jagged-chisel wrote: post #25
gdubs wrote: post #4

I’ve been thinking a lot about the next looming crisis: Climate Change. On Bloomberg radio a few weeks ago, an analyst / money manager was talking about how his firm was looking at satellite imagery of pollution in China to measure their economic recovery. More pollution == “better”. Something is clearly unsustainable with that formula. Like the virus, the longer we wait to take action, the more expensive it is and t…

> More pollution == “better” I'm hoping this is just a temporary indicator giving analysts a hint as to where to focus their attention, and not a lone metric plugged into whatever model they're using.

don't read anything too technical into it, in this case they're just measuring production by the by-product to try and get a leading indicator on actual trade goods. This is macro-level stuff like changes to China's GDP that I would doubt is very actionable

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#60

Post by runarberg »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #35
johnchristopher wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, like we did for the financial crisis, the climate crisis, etc. In a nutshell ? Either you approach this with a class warfare mindset or the usual suspects are going to come out on top again.

Genuine question: what’s wrong with class warfare if certain classes are causing an overwhelming amount of the problem? Typically, you go to war against whatever is putting your life in peril.

I read the parent as if class warfare is the desirable outcome.
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