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Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

japantimes.co.jp

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Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#301

Post by greedo »

taeric wrote: post #229
greedo wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Luck can play a role, but consider the confounding factors against luck: 1. Travel with China. There was a huge amount of inter-country traffic up until the New Year. 2. Population density. Japan is quite high, and this should increase the country's R0. 3. Population demographics. Over 20% of Japan's population is over 60. This should increase the CFR for the country. So there are two basic scenarios. One is that Jap…

I have been looking at it the other way. That it is not something about Japan making it better. There is something about Italy, Milan specifically, that makes it worse. Point I was able to isolate is air quality. My hypothesis that had borne out rather well, if a place reports high severe cases, they have historically bad air. At the least bad air for the past three months.

China had terrible air quality until they shut everything down, yet their CFR is half of Italy's, and that's probably due to the fact that it started there and the learning curve was steep.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#302

Post by taeric »

greedo wrote: post #301
taeric wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have been looking at it the other way. That it is not something about Japan making it better. There is something about Italy, Milan specifically, that makes it worse. Point I was able to isolate is air quality. My hypothesis that had borne out rather well, if a place reports high severe cases, they have historically bad air. At the least bad air for the past three months.

China had terrible air quality until they shut everything down, yet their CFR is half of Italy's, and that's probably due to the fact that it started there and the learning curve was steep.

I'll note my hypothesis is exposure. Thought being that the elder in Milan have had years more exposure to the pollution than what I understand to be the more transient working class of China. (Specifically, the area hit.)

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#303

Post by bermanoid »

SubiculumCode wrote: post #236
Jommi wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you link some sources to your claims?

Specifically, https://i.imgur.com/ekiFd9S.png You will see that the largest outbreaks occur at the same temperature gradients

So do most of the major cities in the world. That's a hell of a confounding variable.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#304

Post by temac »

autokad wrote: post #278
adev_ wrote: post #78

Not so surprising. You have also the same outliers with Hong Kong and Taiwan. - In Japan, people naturally respect social distancing. Touching someone is considered rude, everyone bows instead of shaking hands and nobody kiss. - Almost everybody wear mask when they are sick to avoid contaminating others. They do that since way before Cornavirus and on voluntary based. - Washing hands is common, being clean (bath cult…

I feel like we (the US) do a lot better just by advising the elderly to stay home, give them resources (free delivery, services brought to their home, etc) much more effectively then basically throwing our economy in a 40% GDP drop shitter.

Well, in France 50% of ICU patients are under 60.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#305

Post by tagrun »

boomboomsubban wrote: post #256
barry-cotter wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. Here’s the US Surgeon General spreading disinformation on Twitter. > Seriously people- STOP BUYING MASKS! >?They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk! http://bit.ly/37Ay6Cm https://twitter.com/Surgeon_General/status/12337257852839321...

The Surgeon General is correct. Masks are for the sick.

Expect he is wrong and spread dangerously false information and pushed people toward danger. And you are also doing it here as well. His "correctness" is reflected in the number of infected people in the US, which is over 27000 now. Japan, despite having a head start and having a far higher population density, is at 1050. Let these numbers sink for a minute, and ask yourself what you could be doing better.

In Japan, people use masks to protect the community, which includes themselves as well as people around them.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#306

Post by whyenot »

eanzenberg wrote: post #271
objektif wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But we are being told that masks don't hep with prevention. Do you mean that sick ones do that not to spread?

Masks absolutely help. You are told otherwise for a whole other reason: to stop hoarding masks.

This has been asserted by so many different people, but there doesn't seem to be much scientific evidence backing it up. Why are you so sure?

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#307

Post by Spooky23 »

objektif wrote: post #267
SiVal wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with every point you're making, so I wonder if it isn't just one big factor: lots of people routinely put on masks at the first suspicion that they might be sick, even before they're sure. They just go ahead and do it just in case. And they do this all the time, so there's no delay due to self-consciousness or unfamiliarity or having to go buy a mask. It's just ordinary life. Like taking shoes off in the hous…

But we are being told that masks don't hep with prevention. Do you mean that sick ones do that not to spread?

They don’t do very much unless you follow a protocol that you aren’t.

When they get wet and uncomfortable, you adjust the mask, and now you are transmitting the virus to the surfaces you touch.

Washing your hands and avoiding contact with crowds are the main ways to avoid getting sick. Everything else may help, like using your ring finger knuckle to press elevator buttons or wearing gloves that you change frequently or a mask. But they will only help marginally.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#308

Post by objektif »

boomboomsubban wrote: post #293
objektif wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying masks dont help in preventing ingestion of airborne viruses? That sounds like horse shit. Yes you can still get sick by touching contaminated surfaces and then touching your face...

Anytime a mask would prevent you from ingesting an airborne viruses, it becomes a contaminated surface.

So as your clothes and skin except that when you are wearing a mask you dont get sick.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#310

Post by wang_li »

nostromo wrote: post #34
bruxis wrote: post #5

> New tests that produce produce results in 10-15 minutes are becoming available, but even with the improved tech, under the current policy a test will only be administered in the most extreme circumstances, when people have had a fever for four days or more . This is an important factor that may indicate this "outlier" is more of a delay, rather than a reality of some exception. As a resident, I'm quite concerned ab…

Japan has the oldest population of any country with a median age of almost 50 years old. I can see the virus spreading silently among the young and healthy. But Seattle and Italy have showed us that it’s very clear when the very old start catching it. Doesn’t this suggest that Japan truly isn’t experiencing a wave of silent infections?

>Japan has the oldest population of any country with a median age of almost 50 years old.

Not for long.

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