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Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

japantimes.co.jp

31–40 of 430 posts

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#32
post #5

> New tests that produce produce results in 10-15 minutes are becoming available, but even with the improved tech, under the current policy a test will only be administered in the most extreme circumstances, when people have had a fever for four days or more . This is an important factor that may indicate this "outlier" is more of a delay, rather than a reality of some exception. As a resident, I'm quite concerned ab…

I spent some time in Japan for work and was always amazed how many people had face masks on (even when there is no pandemic) and the prevalent of wearing gloves (driving etc). With my limited time there it seemed to be one of the most proactively sanitary cultures I’ve seen. Also it seemed to me that at business meetings generally people bow instead of shaking hands. And I wonder if this reflects the general approach to person to person contact. Contrast that to Italy for example where kissing and embracing is not uncommon even when meeting someone for the first time.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#33
Why do we place such low stock in mere fortune? If original cases that penetrated borders were asymptomatic then that merely creates a rare event (i.e. all Japanese risk vectors being clearly symptomatic) and its always plausible for a rare event to happen.

Instead we're bending over backwards wondering if its about Japanese bowing/shoe/mask culture.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#34
post #5

> New tests that produce produce results in 10-15 minutes are becoming available, but even with the improved tech, under the current policy a test will only be administered in the most extreme circumstances, when people have had a fever for four days or more . This is an important factor that may indicate this "outlier" is more of a delay, rather than a reality of some exception. As a resident, I'm quite concerned ab…

Japan has the oldest population of any country with a median age of almost 50 years old.

I can see the virus spreading silently among the young and healthy. But Seattle and Italy have showed us that it’s very clear when the very old start catching it.

Doesn’t this suggest that Japan truly isn’t experiencing a wave of silent infections?

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#35
post #18
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I cannot for the life of me understand why we aren't turning every available textile mill into mask manufacturers right now. It should be trivial to do and clothes aren't a critical item. I'm sure most countries have planned something like this as it's a common need during major wars. We're basically saying that since it's not 100% effective, so it's not worth it. Meanwhile, neither is social distancing, but that's s…

I live in Portugal and some producers are being told to make disinfectant out of drinking alcohol. I assume the same is being done with mask production, or will be done. The same is happening with alcohol in other European countries, I don't know about the US.

Yes, some breweries and distilleries are making sanitizer.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Extreme testing policies wouldn’t hide exponential growth - if it is growing exponentially, you’d expect the number of people meeting the criteria to also grow exponentially.

It wouldn't hide it FOR LONG. In a month, we'll know which hypothesis was correct.

It’s unlikely to take that long, in the US our number of dead ~= number of infected 2 weeks ago. Part of that is from in insufficient testing, but 30+% daily increases mean 2,600+% growth per month.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#37
post #18
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I cannot for the life of me understand why we aren't turning every available textile mill into mask manufacturers right now. It should be trivial to do and clothes aren't a critical item. I'm sure most countries have planned something like this as it's a common need during major wars. We're basically saying that since it's not 100% effective, so it's not worth it. Meanwhile, neither is social distancing, but that's s…

I live in Portugal and some producers are being told to make disinfectant out of drinking alcohol. I assume the same is being done with mask production, or will be done. The same is happening with alcohol in other European countries, I don't know about the US.

There's places doing it, but not by mandate.

With the amount of ethanol produced for fuel in the US, it's the other ingredients and packaging that would be the capacity limit.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#38
post #5

> New tests that produce produce results in 10-15 minutes are becoming available, but even with the improved tech, under the current policy a test will only be administered in the most extreme circumstances, when people have had a fever for four days or more . This is an important factor that may indicate this "outlier" is more of a delay, rather than a reality of some exception. As a resident, I'm quite concerned ab…

I spent some time in Japan for work and was always amazed how many people had face masks on (even when there is no pandemic) and the prevalent of wearing gloves (driving etc). With my limited time there it seemed to be one of the most proactively sanitary cultures I’ve seen. Also it seemed to me that at business meetings generally people bow instead of shaking hands. And I wonder if this reflects the general approach…

I think this is the case. Japanese (and other East Asians) already have a pre-existing mask culture. Wearing a mask is normal over there and is encouraged. They also do not hug, shake hands and have body contact with does that are not family or close friends. Another big factor is that they tend to follow the rules unlike in Italy or America where social distancing suggestions were not taken seriously by a large chunk of the population.

Even with these explanation, I'm still perplexed as trains in Japan are always packed and it's impossible to stay 6-feet away from others when you're travelling in dense cities in Tokyo. You're also constantly touching poles/handles in the train or pushing elevator buttons.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#39
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it will turn that wearing masks has a much bigger effect than anticipated. (I suppose that's a form of social distancing.)

WHO: * wearing mask does nothing and... * workers desperately need mask this is the problem when you lie to your audience to achieve some end. Your message not only gets disregarded but you don't actually achieve what you were trying to achieve with your lie in the first place. We are all lucky to have Tedros as our one-world doctor.

Those two things can both be true in a way: if an untrained person uses masks in non-high risk situations they may gain no significant benefit and even cause more harm by causing supply pressure.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#40
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it will turn that wearing masks has a much bigger effect than anticipated. (I suppose that's a form of social distancing.)

WHO: * wearing mask does nothing and... * workers desperately need mask this is the problem when you lie to your audience to achieve some end. Your message not only gets disregarded but you don't actually achieve what you were trying to achieve with your lie in the first place. We are all lucky to have Tedros as our one-world doctor.

It's not a lie. Those two statements are taken wildly out of context. Wearing a mask while walking down the street does effectively nothing for you. But if your job is to be surrounded by infected for the whole day, a mask helps your chances of avoiding getting sick, since you're in close contact all day long. I'm not really sure why people don't understand this.
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