Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier? • Hacker News Board

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#11

Post by tomerico » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 5:56 PM UTC

bruxis wrote: post #5

> New tests that produce produce results in 10-15 minutes are becoming available, but even with the improved tech, under the current policy a test will only be administered in the most extreme circumstances, when people have had a fever for four days or more . This is an important factor that may indicate this "outlier" is more of a delay, rather than a reality of some exception. As a resident, I'm quite concerned ab…

Extreme testing policies wouldn’t hide exponential growth - if it is growing exponentially, you’d expect the number of people meeting the criteria to also grow exponentially.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#12

Post by deelowe » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 5:59 PM UTC

klipt wrote: post #10

QuesnayJr wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it will turn that wearing masks has a much bigger effect than anticipated. (I suppose that's a form of social distancing.)

Imagine if the whole pandemic could have been prevented if we just manufactured masks at a higher rate and everyone wore them. Now even hospitals are running out.

I cannot for the life of me understand why we aren't turning every available textile mill into mask manufacturers right now. It should be trivial to do and clothes aren't a critical item. I'm sure most countries have planned something like this as it's a common need during major wars. We're basically saying that since it's not 100% effective, so it's not worth it. Meanwhile, neither is social distancing, but that's super dooper important.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#13

Post by BoiledCabbage » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 6:00 PM UTC

klipt wrote: post #10

QuesnayJr wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it will turn that wearing masks has a much bigger effect than anticipated. (I suppose that's a form of social distancing.)

Imagine if the whole pandemic could have been prevented if we just manufactured masks at a higher rate and everyone wore them. Now even hospitals are running out.

And the surgical masks are so fucking cheap to. The amount of money this country will lose because we failed to up mask production when we say this coming a million miles away.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#14

Post by scythe » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 6:00 PM UTC

Is it really so outlandish to blame the masks? Relative to Westerners, East Asians seem to wear a lot more masks, and are willing to improvise.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/25/national/japan-...

>A tweet from the Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department’s Disaster Response Division (@MPD_bousai) offers advice on how to wear masks and dispose of them properly, while a free DIY mask instruction manual is available in English, Chinese and Korean on the Oita Prefectural Government’s website

Can you imagine that happening here?

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#15

Post by ppod » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 6:02 PM UTC

bruxis wrote: post #5

> New tests that produce produce results in 10-15 minutes are becoming available, but even with the improved tech, under the current policy a test will only be administered in the most extreme circumstances, when people have had a fever for four days or more . This is an important factor that may indicate this "outlier" is more of a delay, rather than a reality of some exception. As a resident, I'm quite concerned ab…

I think that as long as the availablity of tests is finite, this is a complicated process. Probably the goal should be to optimise for true positives: of the people that have the virus, we want to find as many as possible. In that case, if there is a limitation on the number of tests that can be performed each day, it does make sense to give those tests to the people who are most likely to be positive. Unless some people fit the symptom profile so neatly that they can be treated as though they were positive without a test. Can anyone with expertise weigh in along this line of thinking?

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#16

Post by sendos » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 6:02 PM UTC

People are mentioning this is due to lack of testing, but if that were the case wouldn’t hospitals be overwhelmed like they have been in Italy and elsewhere?

Testing or no testing if hospitals run out of ventilators for people in need, or out of masks, that would still happen if the disease was spreading like it does elsewhere

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#17

Post by greedo » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 6:02 PM UTC

deelowe wrote: post #12

klipt wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine if the whole pandemic could have been prevented if we just manufactured masks at a higher rate and everyone wore them. Now even hospitals are running out.

I cannot for the life of me understand why we aren't turning every available textile mill into mask manufacturers right now. It should be trivial to do and clothes aren't a critical item. I'm sure most countries have planned something like this as it's a common need during major wars. We're basically saying that since it's not 100% effective, so it's not worth it. Meanwhile, neither is social distancing, but that's s…

Most of the textile industry has moved to Asia in the last 30 years.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#18

Post by ttsda » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 6:03 PM UTC

deelowe wrote: post #12

klipt wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine if the whole pandemic could have been prevented if we just manufactured masks at a higher rate and everyone wore them. Now even hospitals are running out.

I cannot for the life of me understand why we aren't turning every available textile mill into mask manufacturers right now. It should be trivial to do and clothes aren't a critical item. I'm sure most countries have planned something like this as it's a common need during major wars. We're basically saying that since it's not 100% effective, so it's not worth it. Meanwhile, neither is social distancing, but that's s…

I live in Portugal and some producers are being told to make disinfectant out of drinking alcohol.

I assume the same is being done with mask production, or will be done. The same is happening with alcohol in other European countries, I don't know about the US.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#19

Post by tptacek » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 6:03 PM UTC

sendos wrote: post #16

People are mentioning this is due to lack of testing, but if that were the case wouldn’t hospitals be overwhelmed like they have been in Italy and elsewhere? Testing or no testing if hospitals run out of ventilators for people in need, or out of masks, that would still happen if the disease was spreading like it does elsewhere

The counterclaim is that Japan has an unusually high per capita number of ICU beds.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#20

Post by _red » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 6:04 PM UTC

QuesnayJr wrote: post #4

ivalm wrote: post #3

This interesting and really shows the power of social distancing. I believe this is also why China/Korea/Taiwan/Singapore were able to overcome the disease. The virus doesn’t spread well without close contact.

I think it will turn that wearing masks has a much bigger effect than anticipated. (I suppose that's a form of social distancing.)

WHO:

* wearing mask does nothing

and...

* workers desperately need mask

this is the problem when you lie to your audience to achieve some end. Your message not only gets disregarded but you don't actually achieve what you were trying to achieve with your lie in the first place.

We are all lucky to have Tedros as our one-world doctor.