Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides] • Hacker News Board

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#351

Post by HenryBemis » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 8:59 AM UTC

MikeAmelung wrote: post #336

yread wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stop spreading this. Median hospitalization age is 65. 40% of patients on icu are under 50. With the rates of hospitalization in 30-39 year olds no country would have enough icu beds even for them

Gonna need to see some actual data. Median hospitalization age of 65 and then 40% of patients in the ICU being under 50 already doesn't even make any sense.

Maybe a moot question/point, but do we take into account patients in ICU that are unrelated to COVID? E.g. traffic accidents, workplace accidents, heart attacks, etc. I am not trying to spoil the discussion, and I do understand that medical services try to save all lives irrespective of age. So someone who's 80 and is down with COVID and someone who is 25 and fell from his Kawasaki doing 200km/h will each occupy a unit in ICU. That would skew the data.

(my bad, it's not easy to go through the slides on a phone)

Edit: by "skew" I imply mix the two categories COVID Vs "all other causes" and will give false average if we are trying to focus only on the COVID cases.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#352

Post by andbberger » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 9:01 AM UTC

danharaj wrote: post #97

booleandilemma wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

New Yorker here. From what I see through my window, my fellow New Yorkers still don’t “get it”. I see clusters of people hanging out and families going for leisurely walks. If this keeps up the number of infections - and deaths - will only increase. Last week my brother suggested instead of working from home I work from a Starbucks. I feel like people don’t understand how serious this is and it’s really bothering me.

I'm more sanguine. I live on a busy Brooklyn street which is normally packed with people shoulder to shoulder during the day, and I will see maybe 5-10 people on the block at what should be the busiest time. I think it's like a 90%-95% reduction which is certainly substantial enough to quench the spread enough to reduce the shock hospitals are receiving. Doing my part (I have asthma), I haven't left the apartment sin…

> which is certainly substantial enough to quench the spread enough to reduce the shock hospitals are receiving.

You absolutely do not know that and should not be saying any such thing with confidence!!!

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#353

Post by laegooose » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 9:09 AM UTC

yread wrote: post #330

nostromo wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> total economic shutdown seems to be the only option left That's quite the overreaction. Italy found that among fatalities the median age is over 80 (older than the average lifespan of an Italian man). 99% of fatalities were among people with a prior illness. About 50% of the deaths were people suffering from at least three other illnesses. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho... To put it an…

Stop spreading this. Median hospitalization age is 65. 40% of patients on icu are under 50. With the rates of hospitalization in 30-39 year olds no country would have enough icu beds even for them

This looks correct. Here's the data https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?s_cid=mm... Scroll down for TABLE. Hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and case–fatality percentages for reported COVID–19 cases, by age group —United States, February 12–March 16, 2020

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#354

Post by totalZero » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 9:12 AM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #214

Abishek_Muthian wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China's Red Cross supposedly advised Italy yesterday that 'total economic shutdown'[1] is the only way to contain the COVID-19 situation in the country now. It all comes to what part of the curve the country is now, the choice being total lockdown incl. economic shutdown vs aggressive testing. Considering US lapsed on aggressive measures in the beginning and that proper test kits are just being flown in from Italy[2]…

> total economic shutdown seems to be the only option left That's quite the overreaction. Italy found that among fatalities the median age is over 80 (older than the average lifespan of an Italian man). 99% of fatalities were among people with a prior illness. About 50% of the deaths were people suffering from at least three other illnesses. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho... To put it an…

Quarantine doesn't send anyone to the stone age. The economic shock will be devastating. But there is no long-term, sustained growth without occasional pruning.

Also...

You make the error of assuming that (A) high blood pressure, diabetes, and heart disease mean that a person is "already dying," and (B) people who survive don't become debilitatingly sick.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#355

Post by polskibus » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 9:28 AM UTC

testfoobar wrote: post #38

The virus is terrible. But our solution could turn into an economic catastrophe. It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. 1. Make hundreds and millions of the rapid tests available. 2. Deploy them to every business, every institution. 3. T…

It is a good idea, however it is too late to execute it well at this moment. As a society we should put incentives differently, so that things like adtech and cheap imports from China get less incentives, but health and solving social problems get more than today and can attract and retain more talent.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#356

Post by xyzzyz » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 9:32 AM UTC

vkou wrote: post #317

pdonis wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> French Revolution? Didn't even last a decade until they got themselves an emperor. > Arguably the Russian Revolution if you accept the USSR as a step up from feudalism. Considering that the USSR killed orders of magnitude more of its own people than feudalism under the Czars ever did, I'm going to vote "no" on this one.

It also brought an unprecedented amount of economic development to what was an incredibly backwards country. Not that it's a model to imitate. Although some folks in this thread sound rather ready to sacrifice millions of people, for the sake of keeping the economy limping along...

Immediate aftermath of October Revolution was widespread death and famine. It was so bad that the communists introduced market capitalism again, called New Economic Policy.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#357

Post by antaviana » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 9:37 AM UTC

I wonder if the strict lockdown measures that are needed to try to contain the covid-19 virus perhaps will not be enough to contain the covid-19 virus, but as a side effect will extinguish all other virures with lower Rs transmitted among humans, such as the flu, etc.

That is, that after 3 months of strict lockdown and 9 months of pervasive social distancing, the only virus you will be able to catch is the covid-19 virus, until new viruses coming from animals appear.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#358

Post by makomk » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 9:41 AM UTC

zaroth wrote: post #186

senordevnyc wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People can be contagious before symptoms. And that’s also a very different strategy than testing everyone before they go into work each day. You’ll miss the vast majority of people if you just test people with symptoms.

South Korea isn’t testing everyone, every day. Neither is China. So there’s a middle ground here somewhere.

The number of new cases in South Korea has started to increase again, and they keep getting new clusters unlinked to any known cases: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-southko... I suspect that they're going to have to give up on the tracing and testing approach in the next few weeks.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#359

Post by enobrev » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 9:42 AM UTC

syshum wrote: post #346

faitswulff wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a counterpoint, Illinois just ordered residents to shelter-in-place after closing schools and restaurants a week ago and our new cases of COVID-19 aren't accelerating upward as of today. This model also predicts far fewer deaths with shelter-in-place rules: https://covidactnow.org/state/IL As governor Pritzker said: "I fully recognize I am choosing between saving people's lives and saving people's livelihoods, but…

I more or less agree with a temporary shut down however I see the quote all the time, and it is a stupid statement, because you equally can not have a life with out a livelihood This the the doctors delima, that does not factor in quality of life in to the "life" equation, life with no quality is not much of a life. Further I have big problems with the Governer or the government making that choice, it should not be t…

I generally agree. That said, we tried the personal responsibility route, and then the bars packed up for St. Patrick's day and the airports ended up becoming giant petri dishes - literally overnight. And then many, many, many people decided that "don't panic" meant somewhere between clear all the shelves at every store and ignore the problem until it goes away.

I don't envy the local governments trying to contain this with almost no data and no help or direction from the federal government.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#360

Post by marvin » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 9:44 AM UTC

Abishek_Muthian wrote: post #313

nostromo wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> total economic shutdown seems to be the only option left That's quite the overreaction. Italy found that among fatalities the median age is over 80 (older than the average lifespan of an Italian man). 99% of fatalities were among people with a prior illness. About 50% of the deaths were people suffering from at least three other illnesses. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho... To put it an…

WHO director specifically mentioned in his briefing yesterday that 'Young people are not invincible and that data from many countries show number of cases below age It's not just fatalities, hospitalisation i.e. exhausting healthcare facilities is the primary concern with COVID-19. There is no guarantee that young people wouldn't make up high mortality list in a poor country with high younger population, rich countri…

Not to mention complications. Little is known yet, but there are indications that some surviving patients get permanent lung damage. Especially when intensive care is not available. Imagine having 30 million 40-year-olds who will be short of breath for the rest of their lives.