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Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

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Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#241

Post by ivalm »

whb07 wrote: post #228
yibg wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There can be a wide range of assumption. Anywhere from "all the people we know about are all that are infected" to "everyone else in the world is already infected". Regardless, the death tolls kind of speak for themselves. What's more, the increase in death toll too. In Italy alone there are over 4000 dead, with a few hundred more a day now. Italy has a population of 60 million. Extrapolating even the current death c…

I’ll give you a couple reasons why Italy is the mess it is: 1. Significantly older population 2. Shitty healthcare For context many years ago, the state of Ohio in the US had more MRI machines than all of Canada combined. It’s very possible that due to budget constraints and other things, they have terrible health infrastructure. Why do we believe that all nations are equal? I can take a look at the Olympics and noti…

There is no treatment other than providing ventilation to the very sick.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#242

Post by booleandilemma »

artursapek wrote: post #182
booleandilemma wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

New Yorker here. From what I see through my window, my fellow New Yorkers still don’t “get it”. I see clusters of people hanging out and families going for leisurely walks. If this keeps up the number of infections - and deaths - will only increase. Last week my brother suggested instead of working from home I work from a Starbucks. I feel like people don’t understand how serious this is and it’s really bothering me.

You obviously don't have young kids. Leaving your apartment and taking them for a walk is the bare minimum to the whole family not going crazy during something like this. You can't just sit at home and chill like a single adult can.

Not without a Wuhan-Style lockdown, apparently.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#243

Post by akiselev »

OGWhales wrote: post #201
digitaltrees wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Business does not have to be structured as a Corporation with limited liability. That is a privilege allowed by the sovereign power of the people through an elected government. If companies don’t behave responsibly they should lose that privilege and the owners could be held liable for debt and these kinds of mistakes personally. The fetishized obligation to shareholders and ONLY shareholders is not some holy pronoun…

> It was made up by a professor at University of Chicago and ran contrary to the history of business and limited liability company structures Who is this guy? Also where can I learn more about this and related topics. I’ve taken an interest to learning about our economic system in my free time and would love it if someone could point me to some good resources/podcasts/whatever.

He means Milton Friedman. The "theory" itself is called "shareholder primacy": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shareholder_primacy

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#244

Post by majormajor »

jdminhbg wrote: post #37
codingslave wrote: post #7

The stock market is largely collapsing because: 1.) Hedge funds levered up their capital 5 - 15x to make more money, then got caught with their pants down. So they all panic sold at once, crashing the market. 2.) CEOs of large corporations used cash to buy back their stock, inflating the stock price, and depleting their cash reserves. So now those same companies are on the brink of collapse, causing the credit market…

> The stock market is largely collapsing because: I'm gonna go with: 0) A pandemic has caused the government to shut down a double-digit percentage of the economy.

The collapsing started before the lockdown, and while the federal government was stating things were under control and this would never be necessary.

Uncertainty and desire to cash out alone was enough. The stock market is based on opinions and emotion.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#245

Post by ivalm »

codingslave wrote: post #215
jdminhbg wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really doesn't matter. If 20% of the economy is zeroed out because it's not safe under current conditions, the stock market will crash. Nothing you could have done beforehand, and no hobby-horse you've ridden for no matter how long, can fix that.

Nope. It does matter. The credit markets which deal with corporate debt could fail as a result. This will drag down the rest of the economy. The main issue is most people dont understand the contagion and risks taken on by the practices I laid out in my main post.

The fed discount window is wide open for business. But seriously, aggressive monetary policy should keep the credit markets working even if mostly by adding to fed's balance sheet.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#246

Post by ivalm »

TheSpiceIsLife wrote: post #65
codingslave wrote: post #7

The stock market is largely collapsing because: 1.) Hedge funds levered up their capital 5 - 15x to make more money, then got caught with their pants down. So they all panic sold at once, crashing the market. 2.) CEOs of large corporations used cash to buy back their stock, inflating the stock price, and depleting their cash reserves. So now those same companies are on the brink of collapse, causing the credit market…

Why should anyone be punished for failing to plan for a black swan event? Black swan events are unpredictable and outside of what is normally expected.

Companies should be most definitely punished for not being robust to black swans. You can't predict a particular black swan, but you can definitely predict that black swans happen regularly. There is a reason why options have the "volatility smile" -- the risk tails are fat!

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#247

Post by supdatecron »

timr wrote: post #230
airstrike wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 99% of fatalities were among people with a prior illness. About 50% of the deaths were people suffering from at least three other illnesses. So far... wait until you get the number of critical cases above the number of ICU beds and you'll see 18 year olds dying from this

You won't, because we triage patients.

Triage isn’t a cure

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#248

Post by whb07 »

ivalm wrote: post #241
whb07 wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ll give you a couple reasons why Italy is the mess it is: 1. Significantly older population 2. Shitty healthcare For context many years ago, the state of Ohio in the US had more MRI machines than all of Canada combined. It’s very possible that due to budget constraints and other things, they have terrible health infrastructure. Why do we believe that all nations are equal? I can take a look at the Olympics and noti…

There is no treatment other than providing ventilation to the very sick.

Yes there are some possible treatments and a number of vaccines are already being studied now.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#249

Post by will_walker »

timr wrote: post #230
airstrike wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 99% of fatalities were among people with a prior illness. About 50% of the deaths were people suffering from at least three other illnesses. So far... wait until you get the number of critical cases above the number of ICU beds and you'll see 18 year olds dying from this

You won't, because we triage patients.

Ventilators are first come first serve. Once someone is on a ventilator it’s not like you can unhook them for a younger patient.
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