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Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

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Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#191

Post by paulryanrogers »

daenz wrote: post #144
toast0 wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the options are have a lockdown vs have a functioning economy and a bunch of sick people. Once hospitals start overflowing with this, you're not going to have a functioning economy anyway. If hospitals can get the supplies they need, and testing and health department capacity is there to do contact tracing, the lockdowns can loosen, and our economy can start back up. Bonus points if the warmer weather i…

>Once hospitals start overflowing with this, you're not going to have a functioning economy anyway. Is this true though? I'm not trying to be insensitive, but according to reports, ~15% of the infected need hospitalization, and the distribution of those people are mostly over 60[0]. Is having these people hospitalized on a large scale more detrimental to the economy than shutting everything down? Serious question. 0.…

If they're all sick at the same time hospitals can't help them or anyone else. Then routine emergencies for everyone became fatal or life altering events.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#192

Post by amluto »

senordevnyc wrote: post #123
im3w1l wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Test everyone at onset of cold symptoms or a fever. Taking hypochondria into account it should come out to once a month. So 10 million tests per day.

People can be contagious before symptoms. And that’s also a very different strategy than testing everyone before they go into work each day. You’ll miss the vast majority of people if you just test people with symptoms.

Stopping every transmission isn’t necessary. We just need some way to drive R China’s approach (lots of temperature taking, testing everyone with a fever) might not eradicate the disease here, but it could keep it manageable until a vaccine is deployed.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#193

Post by OGWhales »

logicchains wrote: post #181
pbourke wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know. That’s the fatality rate within a functioning medical system. It’s safe to assume that if the virus is uncontrolled the rate will be substantially higher.

Why? There wasn't enough testing/medical capacity for at least the first month in Wuhan, and the rate wasn't any higher.

Well we can look at Italy for example. Also America has a lot of obese people, which are supposedly at a high risk, so it’s possible we see a higher fatality rate. I personally don’t think so just trying to answer your question

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#194

Post by logicchains »

marta_morena_23 wrote: post #22
dijit wrote: post #3

The slides by themselves do not speak a compelling narrative to me, so I think I’m missing something fundamental or not understanding. Small businesses (all, businesses) will suffer quite badly, but if your company cannot continue operating because its shut/slowed down for 2 weeks then it’s likely that your business was running on a knifes edge and /any/ shock would have killed it. Arguing that many people have done…

" then it’s likely that your business was running on a knifes edge and /any/ shock would have killed it." Welcome to... life? This is how America or even the world works. Most people live on knife's edge. One missed paycheck? Homelessness just got its greasy hands on you. Two missed paychecks? Go pack what you have left... Most business are not any different, especially those run by regular people. In my family we ha…

>They are destroying the middle class for some "theoretical" projection that might not even play out the way they think. What is guaranteed though is that businesses will die in troves and the economy and middle class with it.

Look at the age of the people making the decisions. If you were 60+, unhealthy, and had the option of minimising your own risk of catching the disease by stopping the economy, you sure you wouldn't take it, regardless of the long term damage it would do to the country?

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#195

Post by AntonStratiev »

senordevnyc wrote: post #85
testfoobar wrote: post #38

The virus is terrible. But our solution could turn into an economic catastrophe. It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. 1. Make hundreds and millions of the rapid tests available. 2. Deploy them to every business, every institution. 3. T…

Worth discussing, but it would take months to deploy the level of testing required. You’d need to test a significant fraction of the entire US population every day. Say 30%, which is probably too low. So we need 100 million tests per day ? That’s many months away, as is the miraculous (and privacy issue laden) database you’re talking about. By then, this will all be over and millions dead if we just let it run unchec…

Focusing on positive or negative is the wrong focus, we need to test for immunity. Those who are immune can contract the virus again in a year, but will do so without symptoms, according to older studies for similar viruses.

And most importantly, those with immunity can go on to lead a normal life and participate in the economy.

https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1240689935557865472

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#196

Post by miketery »

mywittyname wrote: post #111
chance_state wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

/s ?

Doubtful. People often romanticize the "mom & pop" places, but there's a reason that most consumer-facing companies are very large, and those reasons were enumerated by the OP. Also, there's a good deal of selection bias going on. If you had a successful business, why wouldn't you look to expand it to multiple locations? Running a single store makes your business vulnerable and usually requires a lot of time.

While there are advantages to having large / homogeneous / monolithic / centralized entities.

There are also weaknesses in the face of some threat because there is no diversity to survive it.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#197

Post by barbs »

DoreenMichele wrote: post #150

I can't access the article at the moment. I tried. I'm on my phone. It didn't open for me. I'm not sure I care. The world is suddenly embracing a lot of practices I've pursued for years because of my medical condition. I've spent a lot of years trying to develop alternate mental models and an alternate lifestyle to avoid germs so I can stay off all the drugs doctors think I should take. I run r/GigWorks and r/Clothin…

> I've long been a loser and social outcast.

Gee, I wonder why...

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#198

Post by carapace »

Distinguish between wealth and paperwork. As Bucky Fuller pointed out, if all the paperwork disappeared overnight we would have a hellofa fight over who owns what, but no one would (necessarily) starve. If the wealth itself disappeared: the factories, the distribution networks, and so on, we would be screwed.

In the situation today the physical basis of wealth is not under attack, the "human capital" is.

As long as the food and water keep coming we'll eventually be all right, keep your head, and keep your eye on the fundamentals: In approximate rank order from most important to lesser-but-still-very important, the base of Maslow's Hierarchy of Human Needs:

+Water (also soap!)

+Food Production & Distribution & Waste Management.

+Communications (under which I include governance)

+Electric Power

Pervading and fundamental to all these are keeping a level head and a civil society.

"It may seem a ridiculous idea, but the only way to fight the plague is with decency." ~Camus

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#199

Post by [deleted] »

barbs wrote: post #197
DoreenMichele wrote: post #150

I can't access the article at the moment. I tried. I'm on my phone. It didn't open for me. I'm not sure I care. The world is suddenly embracing a lot of practices I've pursued for years because of my medical condition. I've spent a lot of years trying to develop alternate mental models and an alternate lifestyle to avoid germs so I can stay off all the drugs doctors think I should take. I run r/GigWorks and r/Clothin…

> I've long been a loser and social outcast. Gee, I wonder why...

[deleted]

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#200

Post by m_ke »

This wouldn't be such an economic disaster if the government had their shit together and acted fast. All they had to do:

1. Freeze mortgages, rents and interest for 90 days.

2. Send everyone checks for around $2,000 a month, let people choose to cash them if they need to, correct for it on 2021 tax returns based on your income.

Avoid having small businesses shut down and lay everyone off, call it a vacation and give people homework for the next 2-3 months while we focus on fighting this pandemic.

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