Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides] • Hacker News Board

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#141

Post by Anon1096 » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:03 AM UTC

sbashyal wrote: post #100

jdminhbg wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really doesn't matter. If 20% of the economy is zeroed out because it's not safe under current conditions, the stock market will crash. Nothing you could have done beforehand, and no hobby-horse you've ridden for no matter how long, can fix that.

I disagree that nothing one could have done beforehand could fix that. The argument is not that there would not be a decline in share prices at all but the magnitude of it. You need to have enough saved to survive 6 months w/o income is preached a lot in personal finance and somehow this is not practiced for businesses.It is understandable that cash-strapped startups can't afford to do this but the companies buying b…

This is an article about small businesses, which make up the backbone of the economy. It makes 0 financial sense to save up 6 months of savings for any company, big or small. This is literally a once-a-century event.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#142

Post by JoshuaDavid » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:04 AM UTC

lotsofpulp wrote: post #43

JMTQp8lwXL wrote: post #4

Instead of hundreds of billions in loans to businesses, which have to be underwritten -- and as discussed on Slides 17/18, the SBA did an abysmal job administrating during Hurricane Sandy, helicopter money might be the better answer. Give everyone money, no criteria. If we do impose income limits, and since viable proposals do -- we ought to discuss it. Give them a check now anyways. We cannot be worried people will…

Why income limits? Would it not be easier and faster to just adjust marginal tax rates and simply give everyone money right now?

That is the question -- it might legitimately be harder to adjust marginal tax rates than to add an income limit, even if the outcomes would be identical either way.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#143

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:04 AM UTC

testfoobar wrote: post #38

The virus is terrible. But our solution could turn into an economic catastrophe. It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. 1. Make hundreds and millions of the rapid tests available. 2. Deploy them to every business, every institution. 3. T…

[deleted]

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#144

Post by daenz » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:05 AM UTC

toast0 wrote: post #67

lettergram wrote: post #2

One thing that really horrified me was how quickly people threw away the economy. Unfortunately, this virus is highly contagious (to the point that the vast majority of countries won’t contain it) and fairly lethal. We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know. At the moment, we just reduced our GDP by 30%-50% in regions under quarantine. Think about that fo…

I don't think the options are have a lockdown vs have a functioning economy and a bunch of sick people. Once hospitals start overflowing with this, you're not going to have a functioning economy anyway. If hospitals can get the supplies they need, and testing and health department capacity is there to do contact tracing, the lockdowns can loosen, and our economy can start back up. Bonus points if the warmer weather i…

>Once hospitals start overflowing with this, you're not going to have a functioning economy anyway.

Is this true though? I'm not trying to be insensitive, but according to reports, ~15% of the infected need hospitalization, and the distribution of those people are mostly over 60[0]. Is having these people hospitalized on a large scale more detrimental to the economy than shutting everything down? Serious question.

0. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#145

Post by donw » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:05 AM UTC

hyperion2010 wrote: post #90

donw wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. I disagree, and strongly. This would be a knee-jerk, hyberbolic, and woefully ineffective over-response. Typical for the times. The only thing this might achieve is creating an even greater climate of fear and loathing. There will be false positives. And false negatives. There are with every medical test. Back-of-the-envelop…

Your logic is off. In the absence of data there is more fear because you have no idea who might possibly be sick. Once you start testing you can bring epidemiological tools online and alert people to possible exposures. If you don't do that the only sure thing is to quarantine everyone because you have no data, that will tank the economy for sure.

> Your logic is off. In the absence of data there is more fear because you have no idea who might possibly be sick.

There is a massive gap between "test everybody!" and "test nobody!"

We have a finite capacity to test. Tests have accuracy limitations. We can work within both of those limits to mitigate risk as much as possible.

Drastic times require effective measures.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#146

Post by ccktlmazeltov » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:05 AM UTC

fl4bfl4b wrote: post #12

Better solution: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YbtJGn7ida2IYNgwCFk3Sjhs... We can shelter-in-place as long as needed. And no businesses go under, and no one loses their home.

> First, we pause all fixed financial obligations, which are what’s crushing our economy right now. Right now, we’re in a crunch: people can’t work, and so they can’t make payments on mortgages and rents.

Totally agree, it is insane that some families are under the threat of eviction because they live paycheck to paycheck and cannot afford to pay rent now. Same for small businesses who cannot afford to pay rent.

I'm sure some landlords will do the right thing, but we can't trust all landlords to do the right thing. Something has to be done at the federal level, and it's now or never.

UBI would be another way to get around this BTW.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#147

Post by georgeburdell » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:05 AM UTC

If you are rich enough, you should be thinking about which small businesses you rely on and pull-in your purchases. My car mechanic just sent me an e-mail out of the blue advertising that they were still open. I will definitely be getting my car serviced early next week, even though it's a few months early. At work, I'm pulling in some of my "nice to have" projects to keep my favorite vendors (who haven't been shut down) busy.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#148

Post by kjksf » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:05 AM UTC

zouhair wrote: post #86

testfoobar wrote: post #38

The virus is terrible. But our solution could turn into an economic catastrophe. It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. 1. Make hundreds and millions of the rapid tests available. 2. Deploy them to every business, every institution. 3. T…

> It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. Why not? This is a matter of survival. If the economic system breaks because of one pandemic that will last less than a year maybe that economic system needs to die and be replaced by something more solid and useful for most.

It's not about abstract "economic system".

Let me put it in simple word: you'll loose your job. Your friends and family will loose their jobs.

As a result, when your savings run out, you'll loose your appartement. And so will your friends and family.

You won't be able to afford food without government assistance.

And even if shutdown lasts only 30 days, it'll wreck the economy for a long time. Once a restaurant defaults and closes, it won't just re-open. Those jobs will be lost for a long time.

Now, maybe you're one of the lucky ones with enough savings to ride this out and this won't affect you. But it'll affect millions of others.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#149

Post by rootusrootus » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:05 AM UTC

m_ke wrote: post #60

tinyhouse wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't say it's lethal, at least not for everyone. The last report from Italy has stats on 2000 deaths. No deaths under age of 30 and only a few under 50, all with pre-existing health conditions. Women's median age close to 84. Men's 80. And vast majority of deaths are people with multiple pre-existing health conditions.

42% of Americans are obese, this will hit us a lot harder than Europe.

It's not like obesity isn't a problem in Europe, too. 25% is lower than 42%, sure, but it's still a lot.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#150

Post by DoreenMichele » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:07 AM UTC

I can't access the article at the moment. I tried. I'm on my phone. It didn't open for me.

I'm not sure I care.

The world is suddenly embracing a lot of practices I've pursued for years because of my medical condition. I've spent a lot of years trying to develop alternate mental models and an alternate lifestyle to avoid germs so I can stay off all the drugs doctors think I should take.

I run r/GigWorks and r/ClothingStartups. Neither has much traction.

I have long wanted to actively foster the development of small independent business. The founding fathers of the US believed small business and entrepreneurship was critical to a healthy democracy. You can't speak your mind or vote your heart if you have to live in terror of being fired for it and unable to get a new job.

I can run my big fat mouth as much as I do in part because I work for an online writing service. If everyone absolutely hated me on every forum and in the small town where I live, I can keep earning an income anonymously online through the writing service.

I am only one person. I've long been a loser and social outcast. As such, I've been failing to get traction.

But you are all invited to check out GigWorks and ClothingStartups and try to be part of the solution.

The old guard never goes quietly. They go kicking and screaming. Things usually don't really change until a bunch of people die.

We've been here before. We survived as a species.

I think the most important question right now is "What kind of future would you like to see rise from the ashes?"

Answer that question and then actually do it. Don't just leave it as a mental exercise.

For me, that means continuing to try to find ways to foster small and micro business success via the Internet to give stability to a top heavy economy that is sucking the air out of the room politically for reasons foreseen by our founding fathers.