Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides] • Hacker News Board

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#101

Post by ericd » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:54 AM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #28

faitswulff wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a counterpoint, Illinois just ordered residents to shelter-in-place after closing schools and restaurants a week ago and our new cases of COVID-19 aren't accelerating upward as of today. This model also predicts far fewer deaths with shelter-in-place rules: https://covidactnow.org/state/IL As governor Pritzker said: "I fully recognize I am choosing between saving people's lives and saving people's livelihoods, but…

The problem will be how long the shelter in place can be maintained; as long as you have folks coming in infected from other states, once the mass quarantine is lifted, outbreaks will flare up. This only ends with a vaccine and enough people recovered after infection we arrive near enough herd immunity. Until then this will have to burn through populations. Regardless, I can appreciate and support Pritzker’s response…

We don’t have a vaccine for the common cold, not for lack of trying. AFAIK we’ve never made a vaccine for a coronavirus. This isn’t the time to be relying on silver bullets.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#102

Post by senordevnyc » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:54 AM UTC

ramraj07 wrote: post #82

senordevnyc wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) Hedge funds didn’t crash the market. There’s just no evidence for that. The market crashed because there’s enormous uncertainty and people would rather be liquid while they wait to see what happens vs losing a huge percentage of their wealth. 2) Businesses exist to make a profit for their shareholders. Yes, they should have some retained earnings as a rainy day fund, but some of these companies are losing 75-100%…

Wasn't buybacks banned for a longtime in the century? Perhaps you consider this to be socialism and that's why it was unbanned, but given the perverse incentives politicians seemed to have had for the past few decades, I don't see an unbiased argument why it was in the interest of the public to unban stock buyback. Clearly the past year has proven why it should have stayed banned.

Should dividends be banned? Would you be equally upset if these companies paid out their profits in dividends?

Or maybe you’re suggesting we should have liquidity requirements for all businesses like we do for banks? That’s actually not the worst idea in a world where we’re going to be bailing companies out. If you want a bailout, you have to have a rainy day fund to make it less likely you’ll need one.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#103

Post by zaroth » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:54 AM UTC

zouhair wrote: post #86

testfoobar wrote: post #38

The virus is terrible. But our solution could turn into an economic catastrophe. It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. 1. Make hundreds and millions of the rapid tests available. 2. Deploy them to every business, every institution. 3. T…

> It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. Why not? This is a matter of survival. If the economic system breaks because of one pandemic that will last less than a year maybe that economic system needs to die and be replaced by something more solid and useful for most.

“If the economic system breaks...”

No, this is people breaking. Peoples lives and livelihoods break due to this kind of economic and social strain.

And the quarantine effects everyone severely, not just 14% of people.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#104

Post by whb07 » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:54 AM UTC

lettergram wrote: post #2

One thing that really horrified me was how quickly people threw away the economy. Unfortunately, this virus is highly contagious (to the point that the vast majority of countries won’t contain it) and fairly lethal. We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know. At the moment, we just reduced our GDP by 30%-50% in regions under quarantine. Think about that fo…

Nowhere have you seen numbers that remotely approach 1-3%.

You’ve seen the critical, largely elderly population get tested and from that you get that number that’s freaking people out.

Stop spreading panic. With those kinds of numbers China alone would have 10M+ dead. In Japan, Singapore, surrounding nations more millions dead.

Use a bit more common sense. We know we haven’t tested enough in the US, yet we don’t have bodies piling up on the street. You don’t have families of 4 where 2 suddenly die. This has been going on for greater than 3 months now.

Stop spreading fear. The only thing to fear is the terrible consequences of those stuck inside the fear bubble

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#105

Post by senordevnyc » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:55 AM UTC

dwaltrip wrote: post #79

senordevnyc wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) Hedge funds didn’t crash the market. There’s just no evidence for that. The market crashed because there’s enormous uncertainty and people would rather be liquid while they wait to see what happens vs losing a huge percentage of their wealth. 2) Businesses exist to make a profit for their shareholders. Yes, they should have some retained earnings as a rainy day fund, but some of these companies are losing 75-100%…

> Businesses exist to make a profit for their shareholders. It is an insidious and morally bankrupt myth that this is the only purpose of a company.

I didn’t say it was the only reason, and you ignored my question. Would dividends be OK?

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#106

Post by koheripbal » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:55 AM UTC

donw wrote: post #68

testfoobar wrote: post #38

The virus is terrible. But our solution could turn into an economic catastrophe. It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. 1. Make hundreds and millions of the rapid tests available. 2. Deploy them to every business, every institution. 3. T…

> The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. I disagree, and strongly. This would be a knee-jerk, hyberbolic, and woefully ineffective over-response. Typical for the times. The only thing this might achieve is creating an even greater climate of fear and loathing. There will be false positives. And false negatives. There are with every medical test. Back-of-the-envelop…

The alternative is total economic destruction.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#107

Post by ccktlmazeltov » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:55 AM UTC

faitswulff wrote: post #18

lettergram wrote: post #2

One thing that really horrified me was how quickly people threw away the economy. Unfortunately, this virus is highly contagious (to the point that the vast majority of countries won’t contain it) and fairly lethal. We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know. At the moment, we just reduced our GDP by 30%-50% in regions under quarantine. Think about that fo…

As a counterpoint, Illinois just ordered residents to shelter-in-place after closing schools and restaurants a week ago and our new cases of COVID-19 aren't accelerating upward as of today. This model also predicts far fewer deaths with shelter-in-place rules: https://covidactnow.org/state/IL As governor Pritzker said: "I fully recognize I am choosing between saving people's lives and saving people's livelihoods, but…

Cases are lagging apparently, peaking at two weeks after the initiation of a lockdown.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#108

Post by whichquestion » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:55 AM UTC

iamleppert wrote: post #53

I’m honestly looking forward to a new economy served by large corporations. Large companies are more consistent in their user experience across multiple locations, and are better buyers of tech. They are always looking for new ways to automate their operations and frequently turn to tech companies to solve their problems at scale. So in a way, it’s good for the valley if more of the economy becomes more corporate.

A lot of people won’t like this. I personally really enjoy some of the local restaurants in my area. The uniqueness of their food and aesthetic is something you can’t get anywhere else. Even close approximations aren’t the same.

So, with loss of small business, we lose access to certain unique perspectives of how those kinds of businesses should be run. We lose the character that those businesses add to our cities and towns. Furthermore, there is an economic cost to the loss of those businesses for our cities and towns.

If it’s better for tech, it doesn’t mean that it’s better for humanity.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#109

Post by ringshall » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:56 AM UTC

testfoobar wrote: post #38

The virus is terrible. But our solution could turn into an economic catastrophe. It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. 1. Make hundreds and millions of the rapid tests available. 2. Deploy them to every business, every institution. 3. T…

Well worth noting:

If everyone is tested, the disease can be controlled:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/scientists-say...

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#110

Post by ccktlmazeltov » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:56 AM UTC

danieltillett wrote: post #21

maxerickson wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does that even mean?

Congress declares war. Think WWII. Edit. Thanks to the wonders of HC I can’t reply to you so I have edited this post. The declaration of war is symbolic in one way, but it captures what needs to be done. The entire economy needs to be swung around to getting this pandemic under control as quickly as possible. Once war is declared we can start conscripting people to do the things that need to be done like enforce curf…

BTW France declared war officially.