New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services • Hacker News Board

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#361

Post by halfmatthalfcat » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 1:45 AM UTC

vinniejames wrote: post #344

throwaway5752 wrote: post #129

There is no doubt Cuomo should be the national point person for the response to the crisis based on his performance so far. He is independently working with regional manufacturing to retool to make critical medical PPE and ventilators, and has organized a regional coalition including CT, NJ, and PA. I have not agreed with him all the time, but his crisis management has been exemplary and he will have saved many lives…

Cuomo said 24hours ago he would not implement a total shutdown. He changed his mind hours later following California's lead. Being a fast follower is good, but not exemplary

And he’s still not implementing a total shutdown. He’s implementing 100% work from home unless for essential businesses. He’s also been on track to do this since earlier this week as he’s been slowly ratcheting up that number from 50% to the full 100% today.

This isn’t a competition between Governors as each of their municipalities are different and have unique circumstances.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#362

Post by onetimemanytime » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 1:45 AM UTC

oat_bravo_nap wrote: post #248

quartzite wrote: post #84

It will be impossible for us to permanently stop the spread with half measures. As viral spread continues due to half hearted social distancing, when will we be able to return to normalcy? Given the characteristics of this virus even a few cases floating around seem to be enough to reignite contagion. So we persist in stasis for a month or a year with no end in sight while the economy begins to collapse, which will a…

South Korea stopped the infection without "full measures."

how does that work out since S Korea is linked with the outside world? Is it sustainable for as long a the virus in out in the world? I guess that they stopped this round...if tens or hundreds of millions in the world have it, game over.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

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Post by senordevnyc » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 1:50 AM UTC

hevelvarik wrote: post #332

devy wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a difficult decision to be made. On one hand, short term strong measure will guarantee unemployment and bankruptcies and potentially long term economic impact (talk about another the Great Depression). On the other hand, inaction will inevitably cause millions of deaths including young people. It's a chilling effect to see that "the point of no return" date was already past last week for NY. Very very disturbing…

I can't remember the last time I logged in. I live in in Crown Heights, Brooklyn and I don't want belittle the gravity of the situation at all because we have seen seen 3 obituary entries (all elderly) and have a number of other people who we are praying for in precarious situations. But your comment strikes me as something out dystopian sci-fi. Our volunteer ems reps as of 4 days ago estimated that 80% of the commun…

Given how uncertain these times are, I’m not surprised that anyone who has had a mild cold and up since Jan is now pretty sure it was actually coronavirus. But if it was secretly that widespread, why are 90% people tested coming back negative? In short: listen to the public health experts, not the volunteer EMS.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#364

Post by halfmatthalfcat » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 1:52 AM UTC

yibg wrote: post #131

Seems so piecemeal. We have models that work in parts of the world like Korea, Taiwan and Singapore. Is there any reason why the US and Europe can’t follow their model?

It’s because the US government is merely giving guidelines to states on how to implement containment policies. Each state (as Trump has alluded to) has different needs, different spread, ect. Some states need stricter containment because the densities are higher in that state. It is then up to the Governors to dictate policy.

Also for the federal government to actually enforce containment policies requires the government to enact traditional war-time, and what look like more authoritarian, laws.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

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Post by yibg » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 1:54 AM UTC

therealdrag0 wrote: post #250

yibg wrote: post #131

Seems so piecemeal. We have models that work in parts of the world like Korea, Taiwan and Singapore. Is there any reason why the US and Europe can’t follow their model?

A lot of it might just be preparation. Not only "run-books" and hardware, but also wetware. I don't know for sure, but I'd guess those places have a lot more humans per case investigating-network-affects/supporting quarantine. US seems to just be working on getting hardware ramped up. I haven't heard anything about tracing case histories to quarantine contacts. My impression is that like Taiwan didn't even shut down…

That’s my impression for Taiwan as well. Life there seems to be more or less normal and the virus also seems to be contained. The measures are focused on fast and pervasive testing, contact tracing and specific isolation rather than blanket social distancing.

I’m not knowledgeable enough to say either way but is there a reason that model doesn’t work in the US or Europe?

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

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Post by yibg » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 1:55 AM UTC

monocularvision wrote: post #259

yibg wrote: post #131

Seems so piecemeal. We have models that work in parts of the world like Korea, Taiwan and Singapore. Is there any reason why the US and Europe can’t follow their model?

I recommend this episode of Advisory Opinions on the legal specifics around these sorts of actions in the US: https://overcast.fm/+V-MhulG34 The TLDR is that most of the general “police” power in the US sits in the hands of the States.

But surely testing, contact tracing etc as done in parts of Asia can be coordinated centrally.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

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Post by senordevnyc » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:01 AM UTC

psychlops wrote: post #342

Thriptic wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If someone wants to exercise their freedoms and accept responsibility for harm they cause to themselves, I don't have a problem with that. I do however have a problem with someone's exercise of their freedoms causing physical harm to me without my consent. In the same way that it's not acceptable to get lit and then drive a car because it creates a risk to other people, people should shut up and stay inside when told…

That's how it should work. Excellent example. Automobile deaths account for over 3000 deaths per day , far in excess of what covid19 has or will do. Given that information, it seems that you would recommend people "shut up and stay inside" due to the "risk to other people". This is not rational. Giving up everyone's freedom and accepting simple authoritarian solutions a few vocal people want is not a good approach. P…

That 3000+ per day is for the entire globe. And horrifyingly, there’s a chance the US alone will surpass that for some period in the coming weeks. Italy recorded 600+ today, and we’re much bigger. Plus we are way behind on locking down.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

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Post by senordevnyc » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:13 AM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #169

bananabreakfast wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Old people are not the only ones dying.

Data from an Italian study: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho... Median age is 80.5. That's actually near the life expectancy of an Italian male. 99% of fatalities were among people with a prior illness. About half of the deaths were people suffering from three or more other illnesses. To put it very bluntly, a lot of the folks dying from COVID-19 were already dying. COVID-19 is the straw t…

Maybe it’s almost entirely elderly people because doctors making triage decisions favor the young?

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

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Post by mardifoufs » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:23 AM UTC

r00fus wrote: post #140

quartzite wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. All this talk of "flattening the curve" is counterproductive if the curve remains flattened right at capacity for an extended period of time, which is what these measures will cause, rather than spiking for a short period.

Yeah, because a quick spike wouldn't have any outside effects at all. You sound as if you're ok with millions of people dying miserably. You think a long period of decreased economy is bad, the spike might cause outright panics and armed unrest. We can print dollars, we can't resurrect the dead.

Can you print economic output though? Printing dollars only works when there are things to buy and sell. More money and less things to use it on only makes the money less useful (inflation). Usually the economy can absorb that extra supply pretty well to the point of being insignificant, but that doesn't work when you just stop said economy.

Also, how do you think we will be able to support and help those more vulnerable if we don't have any economic output? Will printing money make supplies appear from nowhere?

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

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Post by fennecfoxen » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:33 AM UTC

StanislavPetrov wrote: post #356

koheripbal wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which means the only winning strategy is resume our lives - not hide in our homes. Those who are in the vulnerable categories should absolutely shelter-in-place, but the rest of us need to earn a living. The government cannot possibly bail out every single business in the nation. TLDR: Everyone under 50- go to work, wash your hands, maybe get sick. Everyone over 50 - stay at home until there's a vaccine.

Except it doesn't work that way, because a certain % of people who get sick require hospitalization to survive - including people under 50 - even if that's a lower % than those who are older and/or have underlying medical conditions. We have under a million total hospital beds in the USA. If 100 million under 50s get sick right away and just 3% of them require hospitalization that's still 3x as many hospital beds as…

> How many hundreds of thousands or millions of preventable deaths are acceptable to you for a faster bounceback of the economy?

This is a really good question, because a dead economy is deadly too, and a shutdown is particularly hard on the people who can afford it least.

Normal Quality-Adjusted-Year-of-Life estimates are $50,000-$150,000. If this is a good estimate then ideally our economic shutdown won't pay much more than that overall; if we pay much more as a society, we have probably gone too far.

(And of course it feels bad to put a dollar value on a human life, so not everyone will want to do that. This doesn't change that we have to make this decision, though, it just means that we make our decision blindly and harm people more than we ought.)