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Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

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51–60 of 96 posts

Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Elderly folks aren’t necessarily out and about drinking espresso and touching surfaces yet alone having younger asymptomatic carriers cough on them. From what I understand about Italian culture, they kind of are. Older Italians seem to have much stronger social lives than in the US.

There’s truth to this and perhaps I jumped to an invalid American based assumption, stupid given that I’m European. In Europe, the elderly are out and about, walking, sitting at parks, drinking coffee, the works. They’re actually still doing this as we speak in countries, from what friends and family tell me. Go figure. However, even if they are in cafes, grocery stores, parks - the numbers are still very high. This…

If my experience with 'southern' cultures is anything to go by, the amount of interaction between young and old people probably plays a huge role.

For comparison, I live in NL and for me and the vast majority of my 20-30-something friends, visiting grandparents is relatively rare. For many of us even visiting parents is a 'once every x months' kind of thing.

On the other hand, when I lived around the mediterranean, not only was it expected to regularly interact with parents and grandparents, but it was often the case that they lived together, or at least close by.

Perhaps the 'quarantining'/neglect of the elderly in Northern-Europe that I've often criticised as inhumane is actually saving them in this particular situation.

Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#52
Summarizing the deaths, by age distribution is quite telling (page 4):

- no deaths under 30

- Less than 1% of deaths under 50

- less than 4% of deaths under 60

- 87% of deaths above 70

This disease is incredibly dangerous for our elderly, and isolating them to prevent infection should be our top priority.

Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#53
post #31

How many were so sick that they would have died anyway? I read that they were testing dead people and the theory was, their count was so high because they would add people to it that would have died anyway but just happen to be infected right before their death. Edit: I think this is an interesting question. Why do Italy, France and Spain have such high death ratios? Are they measuring more than needed or are the oth…

Right, but you need to establish the cause of death and it's kind of important. Like for example my father was fighting cancer for 8 years before he died, but when he passed away the hospital wrote that he died of "cardiac arrest", since his heart just couldn't go anymore. So in some statistic somewhere he will exist as a person who died of heart problems, not someone who died because of cancer. That's not right either I don't think.

Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#54
post #11

I found page 3 most remarkable: 48% of those who die of covid-19 in Italy also suffer from three or more other diseases (or did recently), and 99.2% suffer from one or more.

Most people might have some conditions that just haven't been diagnosed yet. Some people are obese, diabetic smokers with high blood pressure that still have a more robust cardiovascular system to someone living perfectly healthy. Certainly not the rule, but not impossible. My physics and sports teacher dropped dead with 30-something from an aneurysm. We know the probable risk factors, but you could probably just say they were in poor general health.

Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany currently looks to be an interesting case. As of CNN this morning, they have 13,957 cases confirmed, and 31 deaths. The deaths may of course crank up to a "normal" level, but I wonder if it's possible that they are testing many more people and getting a more accurate view. (of course, this comment will probably age poorly)

Oh. This article says it way better than I could: https://www.ft.com/content/c0755b30-69bb-11ea-800d-da70cff6e... Sorry about the paywall. If you search for it via google and click it from there that's how I found it (and why I didn't realize it was paywall) Basic summary: Too Early to tell. But Germany is doing 160,000 tests/week, which is more than lots of countries. They may be getting a more complete picture of w…

Absolute paywall.

Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have enough data from closed experiments (Diamond Princess) to say that COVID sends 5% or more to the ICU. That’s the number that matters right now, not CFR. Fatality rate itself is much more dependent on whether the ICU beds are full (Italy, Iran) than anything else. Unfortunately, beds are about to be full in several US cities.

But that's not reliable either. Average age on the Diamond Princess was 58. With 1/3 being over 70. Average age in the US is 38, with 15.2% being over 65. Given that age is a very large component here, I don't think you can extrapolate data from the Diamond Princess to the general population.

It’ll saturate.

Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#58

Some interesting data here. - Mean age of 79.5 sheds light on Italy’s extremely high fatality rates; in essence, it’s the (very) elderly that are dying due to complications from viral pneumonia. Which begs the next question... Why are they overwhelmingly treating patients with antibiotics in cases of viral pneumonia and not antivirals (Remdesivir)/ chloroquine? Sure, these are “experimental” therapies but decent data…

> How did so many elderly get infected? Did the disease simply spread in close quarters where many elderly live? Elderly folks aren’t necessarily out and about drinking espresso and touching surfaces yet alone having younger asymptomatic carriers cough on them.

Ha. Italians in N. Italy often living multigeneration in close quarters. Spanish and italians, men and women, ritually kiss on the cheeks as a greeting. Brits and Germans don't so much.

Italians are very social to an old age and live longer than many nations.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197121...

> We estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981 attributable to influenza epidemics in the 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17

Italy always has this problem

Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#59

Summarizing the deaths, by age distribution is quite telling (page 4): - no deaths under 30 - Less than 1% of deaths under 50 - less than 4% of deaths under 60 - 87% of deaths above 70 This disease is incredibly dangerous for our elderly, and isolating them to prevent infection should be our top priority.

That's because Italy's hospitals are overcrowded and very old patients are simply not treated at all. It's a vicious circle because they're thought being less likely to survive, are denied treatment, which makes them even less likely to survive.

Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Elderly folks aren’t necessarily out and about drinking espresso and touching surfaces yet alone having younger asymptomatic carriers cough on them. From what I understand about Italian culture, they kind of are. Older Italians seem to have much stronger social lives than in the US.

There’s truth to this and perhaps I jumped to an invalid American based assumption, stupid given that I’m European. In Europe, the elderly are out and about, walking, sitting at parks, drinking coffee, the works. They’re actually still doing this as we speak in countries, from what friends and family tell me. Go figure. However, even if they are in cafes, grocery stores, parks - the numbers are still very high. This…

> and/or it’s been there for a long time. Months

I believe this to be accurate and have argued for it elsewhere.

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