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Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

#21
post #2

Are we sure that the economic damage of the shutdown of the world economy out weighs the heath risks of the virus. Are we in group think here? A major recession/depression means a lot of people go hungry, lose access to medical care etc. Does anyone know of studies or research that looks at the health impacts of a shutdown vs. the health risk of the virus ? Just asking questions. I keep asking this question and I get…

How many people dying is acceptable to you?

Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

#22
post #2

Are we sure that the economic damage of the shutdown of the world economy out weighs the heath risks of the virus. Are we in group think here? A major recession/depression means a lot of people go hungry, lose access to medical care etc. Does anyone know of studies or research that looks at the health impacts of a shutdown vs. the health risk of the virus ? Just asking questions. I keep asking this question and I get…

How many people dying is acceptable to you?

Do you mean as a result of the virus, or as a result of losing their livelihood and being plunged into poverty?

Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

#23
post #2

Are we sure that the economic damage of the shutdown of the world economy out weighs the heath risks of the virus. Are we in group think here? A major recession/depression means a lot of people go hungry, lose access to medical care etc. Does anyone know of studies or research that looks at the health impacts of a shutdown vs. the health risk of the virus ? Just asking questions. I keep asking this question and I get…

I second this it seems more and more like massa hysteria. 8.000 people died on 7.7 billion people.

Its crazy to pull the handbrake on the economy. 99% of the people that died were going to be death in a year or 2 anyway.

Have you heard about that school class full of 6 years old kids in Italy that died last a week?

Didn't happen but when it happens we do not have this options anymore. Old people die and thats life.

Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

#24
post #15
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does seem that we have blindly followed the Chinese's government's response to the outbreak without any real data. I'm guessing there may be large numbers of people who are affected who aren't really showing any symptoms other than typical cold/flu symptoms.

“It won’t happen here.” “It could happen here, but it’s not a big concern.” “It’s happening here, and it’s a big concern, but we don’t have reliable data so let’s do nothing.” “We have reliable data now, but it’s too late to do anything.”

Are you quoting people from an actual conversation, or setting up a straw man to justify draconian actions based on limited data?

Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

#25
post #2

Are we sure that the economic damage of the shutdown of the world economy out weighs the heath risks of the virus. Are we in group think here? A major recession/depression means a lot of people go hungry, lose access to medical care etc. Does anyone know of studies or research that looks at the health impacts of a shutdown vs. the health risk of the virus ? Just asking questions. I keep asking this question and I get…

Because the answer is, we wont know for sure until it's over.

But you can lessen the impact on economy help with bring it back, western countries produce more than enough food to make sure nobody starves (if they want) If you leave covid 19 unchecked it will overwhelm your medical system anyway so even more people would loose access to medical care.

So the choice comes down to, hope that worst case (italy++) wont happen and carry on, or try to do something. And you cant get away with bulshit pretending that you are doing something when you are not, because people suddenly listen to scientist and doctors, when their ass is on the line.

Unsurprisingly we choose to do something.

Additionally given that in west most politicians are elected, and that most reliable voters and donors for political campaigns are from age group most affected by this virus, decision is even more obvious.

Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

#26
post #2

Are we sure that the economic damage of the shutdown of the world economy out weighs the heath risks of the virus. Are we in group think here? A major recession/depression means a lot of people go hungry, lose access to medical care etc. Does anyone know of studies or research that looks at the health impacts of a shutdown vs. the health risk of the virus ? Just asking questions. I keep asking this question and I get…

How many people dying is acceptable to you?

I'm afraid that on the long term, the social unrest and the economic consequences will far outweigh the damage done by the virus. There is no plan on how long you can shut down whole countries. Europe, for example is not like China, you are just locking down everything, you don't have any other regions to support you. Sure, some people can work from home now, but by having the economy run at minimum level, work will go down, there will be no more projects even for IT people. How many people are losing their jobs already, what will happen if we need to quarantine ourselves for another 6 months to flatten the curve, if jobs are cut after just 2 weeks? I might have enough saved to be able to live not working for a couple of years, but I don't think that will help me if the entire social order is collapsing.

Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

#27
post #2

Are we sure that the economic damage of the shutdown of the world economy out weighs the heath risks of the virus. Are we in group think here? A major recession/depression means a lot of people go hungry, lose access to medical care etc. Does anyone know of studies or research that looks at the health impacts of a shutdown vs. the health risk of the virus ? Just asking questions. I keep asking this question and I get…

What is the value of a human life in the West?

My figure is $2 million.

Then a billion $ is 500 lives.

A trillion $ is 500,000 lives.

This is how I rate it. What is your figure on a life?

And how would you relate loss and gain of $ to buying / destroying lives?

The discussion changes when you leave the West, so start there.

Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

#28
post #15
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does seem that we have blindly followed the Chinese's government's response to the outbreak without any real data. I'm guessing there may be large numbers of people who are affected who aren't really showing any symptoms other than typical cold/flu symptoms.

“It won’t happen here.” “It could happen here, but it’s not a big concern.” “It’s happening here, and it’s a big concern, but we don’t have reliable data so let’s do nothing.” “We have reliable data now, but it’s too late to do anything.”

Are you suggesting the four stage strategy?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak

Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

#29
post #2

Are we sure that the economic damage of the shutdown of the world economy out weighs the heath risks of the virus. Are we in group think here? A major recession/depression means a lot of people go hungry, lose access to medical care etc. Does anyone know of studies or research that looks at the health impacts of a shutdown vs. the health risk of the virus ? Just asking questions. I keep asking this question and I get…

it seems like this is the response from most people everywhere about until their region hits the knee of the exponential curve. this pattern played out in Italy, Spain, France, and now the US.

the Imperial College paper estimates 2 million dead in the US with no response and ~1 million dead with a limited response that doesn’t involve a full shutdown. That paper explicitly doesn’t consider the very severe economic impacts but it’s hard to imagine that deaths on that scale aren’t worse than whatever they might be.

Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

#30
post #2

Are we sure that the economic damage of the shutdown of the world economy out weighs the heath risks of the virus. Are we in group think here? A major recession/depression means a lot of people go hungry, lose access to medical care etc. Does anyone know of studies or research that looks at the health impacts of a shutdown vs. the health risk of the virus ? Just asking questions. I keep asking this question and I get…

It has mostly hit Europe and Asia where people don't lose their medical care. And in general we don't expect them to leave their people hungry. Also there is no econonic model of millions of people dying in a few months so governments opt for the safer choices. Most governments at least.
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