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50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

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Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#351

Post by watwut »

surfsvammel wrote: post #339
warabe wrote: post #237

I live in Japan and I experience mild symptoms since last Wednesday but not sure if my symptom is due to Covid-19. In Japan, You have meet two conditions to take a CPR test. 1. the symptoms with fever of 37.5 degrees or more continue for 4 days or more (for the eldery and those with underlying disease, "4 days" becomes "2 days") 2. you have strong laxity (malaise) or breathlessness (dyspnea), or you have underlying d…

I think there is a more reasonable explanation why they are not testing you. Simply because they wouldn’t do anything with that information anyway. If the test is positive they’ll send you home to quarantine telling you to call back if your fever worsens. If the test would show negative, they’d tell you, guess what; “please call back if your fever worsens, and stay in quarantine anyway”. So the information doesn’t re…

> So the information doesn’t really matter.

It would matter to me. If I know I have it, I would stay at home and have somebody else do shopping and leave stuff in front of the door. If I dont know that, I do shopping by myself.

Having it or not is also difference between whether one can join one of those programs where young people shop for elderly and leave stuff in front of the door. Of course the caution must be taken with everyone, but also those with confirmed case are out.

It makes difference for people who still have to go to work.

Even official expectations on people with corronavirus are different then on others.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#352

Post by standardUser »

tasogare wrote: post #127
GreaterFool wrote: post #115

I keep hearing “masks are useless”. If every person who has any cough or any chest tightness or any sore throat, however mild, put on a mask, wouldn’t that stop the spread? I live in Japan. It started here earlier but didn’t explode. Nothing is closed. Business as usual. everyone wears masks. Most cases in Hokkaido. Maybe because it is much colder there and easy to overexposed and tax the immune system.

I live in Japan too and just spoke with a friend who thinks government is hiding cases to keep the Olympics. Given how hard it seems to get a test (as per the press) this has some truth. People are a bit more careful than in Europe but not amazingly careful either, so the virus is probably spreading silently.

"...so the virus is probably spreading silently"

And harmlessly? Because the outbreaks in Iran and Italy show that the virus, if not contained, will spread rapidly and start killing hundreds every day.

Why exactly is this not occurring in Japan? How do we reconcile the idea that Japan is doing little-to-nothing about the virus with the fact that the virus is not causing nearly the same level of illness or disruption as in other countries?

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#353

Post by jeremysalwen »

trymas wrote: post #145
uluyol wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately this is not an option for many people. I don't disagree with the sentiment - avoiding the spread of disease is good - but often the reward systems in place don't optimize for the best global outcomes.

Where are you from? Where I live - I think I am even motivated to get sick leave. If I feel ill, I can get sick leave, with no time limits I am aware of [0], and as a reward I will get 80% [1] of my salary back for essentially doing nothing. IMHO it's a win/win. I will get well and be productive as soon as possible [2]. If it's a viral illness - my employer would be happy that I will not make dozens of other people i…

Wait till you hear about the health care system in the United States...

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#354

Post by joshuahedlund »

spookthesunset wrote: post #324
yiyus wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The people in the saturated hospitals know what's going on. HN or Reddit had nothing to do with that.

> saturated hospitals citation needed. PS: you should easily be able to cite that statement in favor or in disfavor of your statement. Both citations will be equally valid and invalid.

> An anesthesiologist at a hospital in Bergamo, one of the cities with the most cases of Covid-19, the illness caused by the new coronavirus, told the paper that the intensive care unit was already at capacity, and doctors were being forced to start making difficult triage decisions, admitting people who desperately need mechanical ventilation based on age, life expectancy, and other factors. Just like in wartime.

> The hospital in Bergamo was not the only hospital in the area dealing with a lack of capacity and rationing of care. The same day, I heard from a manager in the Lombardy health care system, among the most advanced and well-funded in Europe, that he saw anesthesiologists weeping in the hospital hallways because of the choices they are going to have to make.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/13/opinion/coronavirus-c...

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#355

Post by neuronic »

rv-de wrote: post #157
torpidor wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Similarly, I'm not a confirmed case but I've been isolation since Friday just out of general precaution, and I developed a mild chest tightness while here. I was sure it wasn't covid because I didn't have a fever, but just a few hours ago I checked again and I have a borderline one (99.4). Then my girlfriend got an email that someone tested positive from the same floor in her office. I don't qualify for a test and my…

Same here, persistent mild chest pressure. My girlfriend as well as myself are experiencing it. But it's so subtle that you start to question it at times. But especially when lying in bed it becomes quite annoying or frightening if I think too much about it.

Hey, here with you. I have chest tightness (and sometimes a stabby pain) and it feels like I cannot breathe as well. Going on for almost two weeks now - no other symptoms at all.

I called in with a physician and they said likely not covid, just muscular stuff. I also have allergies and thing begin to bloom...

So I am confused and worried, lots of anxiety. But it could just be allergies or something muscular from workout (had that before).

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#356

Post by JoshTko »

surfsvammel wrote: post #339
warabe wrote: post #237

I live in Japan and I experience mild symptoms since last Wednesday but not sure if my symptom is due to Covid-19. In Japan, You have meet two conditions to take a CPR test. 1. the symptoms with fever of 37.5 degrees or more continue for 4 days or more (for the eldery and those with underlying disease, "4 days" becomes "2 days") 2. you have strong laxity (malaise) or breathlessness (dyspnea), or you have underlying d…

I think there is a more reasonable explanation why they are not testing you. Simply because they wouldn’t do anything with that information anyway. If the test is positive they’ll send you home to quarantine telling you to call back if your fever worsens. If the test would show negative, they’d tell you, guess what; “please call back if your fever worsens, and stay in quarantine anyway”. So the information doesn’t re…

I'm always wary of any strategy that is fine with having less information. Of course cost of information is never zero but in this case the actual cost of tests is relatively low.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#357

Post by mynegation »

watwut wrote: post #351
surfsvammel wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there is a more reasonable explanation why they are not testing you. Simply because they wouldn’t do anything with that information anyway. If the test is positive they’ll send you home to quarantine telling you to call back if your fever worsens. If the test would show negative, they’d tell you, guess what; “please call back if your fever worsens, and stay in quarantine anyway”. So the information doesn’t re…

> So the information doesn’t really matter. It would matter to me. If I know I have it, I would stay at home and have somebody else do shopping and leave stuff in front of the door. If I dont know that, I do shopping by myself. Having it or not is also difference between whether one can join one of those programs where young people shop for elderly and leave stuff in front of the door. Of course the caution must be t…

I tend to agree with you, I would like to know as well. But consider this: if it is cold or flu - would you want to risk your health being more prone to the infection while your immune system fights another virus, or bringing more people into the same situation in circumstances like these?

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#358

Post by mynegation »

JoshTko wrote: post #356
surfsvammel wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there is a more reasonable explanation why they are not testing you. Simply because they wouldn’t do anything with that information anyway. If the test is positive they’ll send you home to quarantine telling you to call back if your fever worsens. If the test would show negative, they’d tell you, guess what; “please call back if your fever worsens, and stay in quarantine anyway”. So the information doesn’t re…

I'm always wary of any strategy that is fine with having less information. Of course cost of information is never zero but in this case the actual cost of tests is relatively low.

The cost as in “COGS + markup” may be low but the opportunity cost (cost of not doing a test when it is more important) might be higher when the supply of tests and lab time is limited. While it is absolutely important to ramp up both, it is a different story.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#359

Post by watwut »

mynegation wrote: post #357
watwut wrote: post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So the information doesn’t really matter. It would matter to me. If I know I have it, I would stay at home and have somebody else do shopping and leave stuff in front of the door. If I dont know that, I do shopping by myself. Having it or not is also difference between whether one can join one of those programs where young people shop for elderly and leave stuff in front of the door. Of course the caution must be t…

I tend to agree with you, I would like to know as well. But consider this: if it is cold or flu - would you want to risk your health being more prone to the infection while your immune system fights another virus, or bringing more people into the same situation in circumstances like these?

If it is cold of flu, when it passed, it passed. 7 days and you are fine. Corona is can get better and become worst and take weeks. So it is still a difference.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#360

Post by malandrew »

gnulinux wrote: post #328
bcrosby95 wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're comparing a virus that early on was reported as 3-4% to one that early on was reported as 0.4%. The cruise ship and South Korea are probably closest to the true death rate of this virus. CFR in South Korea is currently around 0.8%. A common "educated guess" I see from people that work on this is its probably around 0.5%-1% assuming you can get the care needed for it.

Currently, we have 7 total reported deaths from the cruise ship and 696 confirmed cases. Seeing that it's been a long while since the outbreak, let's assume all current cases will survive; this puts us to 1% CFR. But note that Cruise Ship had a higher average age than public, so assuming you'll receive all the medical care you need, ~1% CFR seems to be a good approximate upper-bound estimate.

IIRC all or almost all of those 7 were over 80.
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