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50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

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Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#321

Post by travmatt »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #313
travmatt wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know any reason that wouldn’t be the case, and many/most experts are already predicting a second wave - we don’t know the reasons that the 1918 pandemic mutated to become more lethal, so I don’t know how someone can say that it won’t happen again. Good planning would dictate that we not write off worst case scenarios without reason.

I have heard that the reason 1918 was so bad was because, among all the soldiers in the trenches, it could be virulent and still be able to spread effectively, so it had no selection pressure to not be virulent. (If an illness is too virulent, it usually dies out before it spreads too far.) Covid is a bit different, because it has a longer incubation time, and therefore has more time to spread before the spreader kno…

I’ve heard that as well and certainly hope that’s the case. But I’d think it’d be irresponsible for planners to just assume that’s what would happen, and not ask themselves what happens if the pandemic becomes worse.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#322

Post by thu2111 »

jhayward wrote: post #305
thu2111 wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't seem to be contradicting me. I'm not saying everything is normal or other operations weren't cancelled. I'm saying that at this time, Italy is saying they have not run out of capacity to treat CV patients. And they definitely aren't 200% over capacity (for CV) as claimed.

You seem to be living in a different factual world than the rest of us, where ICU cases are in hallways and surgical suites is not "over capacity", and leaving people to die of suffocation without standard lifesaving treatment is not unusual.

I'm going to be giving up on this thread in a moment because people aren't even reading what I'm reading and definitely aren't answering in good faith.

The original claim was that people over the age of 80 aren't being treated because they don't have the capacity for it. I queried if they were sure about that, because the Italian government was saying that's not true. An Italian has now replied to that same post also stating it's not true and the international media has exaggerated a comment by a single doctor.

That's the factual world.

In another thread a guy claimed the Italian system was "at over 200% capacity". This turned out to be an exaggeration of another claim by a single doctor, not a real statistic.

I've been querying these sorts of claims by directly citing detailed testimony from the guy who literally runs all of ICU in Lombardy, the worst struck place in the whole world. He is saying, as clear as can be, he doesn't believe people with a chance of recovery have been turned away due to lack of beds. This doesn't mean they haven't increased beds via drastic measures or taken other actions to increase capacity. It means that as of the time that report was made, he didn't believe they'd run out of at-present capacity and had to turn people away at the hospital entrance.

Maybe he's wrong and not living in the same factual world as the rest of us. I don't know. But I'd hope he understands the state of his own hospitals given his job.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#323

Post by learnstats2 »

leftyted wrote: post #288
warabe wrote: post #237

I live in Japan and I experience mild symptoms since last Wednesday but not sure if my symptom is due to Covid-19. In Japan, You have meet two conditions to take a CPR test. 1. the symptoms with fever of 37.5 degrees or more continue for 4 days or more (for the eldery and those with underlying disease, "4 days" becomes "2 days") 2. you have strong laxity (malaise) or breathlessness (dyspnea), or you have underlying d…

Sounds like the government is correctly rationing tests. My sense is that the vast majority of the healthy population shouldn't get tested even if they might have the virus because the infrastructure doesn't support widespread testing (anywhere -- as far as I know). They should act as if they have the virus and stay home, rest, drink a lot of water, and take NSAIDs if the pain gets out of hand. I've been sick since l…

current advice is: DON'T take NSAIDs (e.g. ibuprofen), which may cause complications due to interaction with immune system.

do take paracetamol

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#324

Post by spookthesunset »

yiyus wrote: post #317
spookthesunset wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans are wired for doomsday scenarios. Our brains love to imagine the worst case scenarios.... probably how we survived as a species for so long. Our brains have not evolved to deal with 24/7 media coupled with social media, HN, Reddit, YouTube and every other information source feeding us a nonstop stream of raw unfiltered data. Dunno where I’m going with this but our brains latch onto stuff like this and run wild…

The people in the saturated hospitals know what's going on. HN or Reddit had nothing to do with that.

> saturated hospitals

citation needed.

PS: you should easily be able to cite that statement in favor or in disfavor of your statement. Both citations will be equally valid and invalid.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#325

Post by spookthesunset »

lostapathy wrote: post #311
spookthesunset wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can make clear, well publicized examples of people hoarding goods for resale. They make well publicized examples of people getting arrested in stores who are loading their carts up with every hand sanitizer bottle on the shelf. It doesn’t take more than a few very visible examples to clamp down on that kind of behavior.

That absolutely should be happening - but that needs to be done at the state or local level, or in consumer protection agencies. That's not a job for the president at times like this.

> That's not a job for the president at times like this

It is absolutely the job of a president, at least a good one anyway, to ask the populace to chill the fuck out and stop hoarding toilet paper and medial supplies.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#326

Post by mNovak »

rv-de wrote: post #157
torpidor wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Similarly, I'm not a confirmed case but I've been isolation since Friday just out of general precaution, and I developed a mild chest tightness while here. I was sure it wasn't covid because I didn't have a fever, but just a few hours ago I checked again and I have a borderline one (99.4). Then my girlfriend got an email that someone tested positive from the same floor in her office. I don't qualify for a test and my…

Same here, persistent mild chest pressure. My girlfriend as well as myself are experiencing it. But it's so subtle that you start to question it at times. But especially when lying in bed it becomes quite annoying or frightening if I think too much about it.

Same boat--annoying overlap that anxiety causes the same symptom. Luckily I've always worked from home, so have been pretty well isolated.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#327

Post by 013a »

During the US coronavirus task force briefing just an hour ago, one of the heads of the HHS suggested (without outright saying) that one of the reasons (just one of them) the US is lagging on testing is because they're concerned about the efficacy of tests other countries are running. High false-positive and false-negative rates were both mentioned, in "tens of thousands of tests" distributed to other countries.

There's an underlying truth to this disease that no one has a grasp on right now, and the only way we get to it is the widespread execution of accurate tests. That doesn't happen quickly. Just think about that the next time you feel mad about our testing situation; a core doctrine of medicine (at least in our country) is First, Do No Harm. Telling someone they're infected, when they're not, is doing harm. Telling someone they're clear, when they're not, is doing harm. Enacting policy based on numbers derived from a bad test is doing harm.

And, most importantly, the single thing that represents the entire point of the doctrine: doing nothing is not doing harm.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#328

Post by gnulinux »

bcrosby95 wrote: post #261
nostromo wrote: post #26

I wonder if this will be like H1N1. At first we only identified extreme cases and we had these terrifying reported fatality rates. Then we identify more and more mild or asymptomatic cases and the rates drop and drop. We’ve already seen how CFR was reported as 3 or 4%. Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower. H1N1 was ident…

You're comparing a virus that early on was reported as 3-4% to one that early on was reported as 0.4%. The cruise ship and South Korea are probably closest to the true death rate of this virus. CFR in South Korea is currently around 0.8%. A common "educated guess" I see from people that work on this is its probably around 0.5%-1% assuming you can get the care needed for it.

Currently, we have 7 total reported deaths from the cruise ship and 696 confirmed cases. Seeing that it's been a long while since the outbreak, let's assume all current cases will survive; this puts us to 1% CFR. But note that Cruise Ship had a higher average age than public, so assuming you'll receive all the medical care you need, ~1% CFR seems to be a good approximate upper-bound estimate.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#329

Post by egfx »

mateo411 wrote: post #264
bart_spoon wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know why there would be any reason to believe that would be the case. Generally viruses become less deadly over time, not more. The Spanish flu was an outlier.

I'm pretty sure the Spanish flu did become less deadly over time. I'm sure the virus didn't go away after the second wave, however humanity started developing an immunity to it.

No, from what I’ve read the second wave was the deadliest by far. The first wave being mild. There is anecdotal evidence that sick soldiers spread a virus that became stronger with soldier to soldier spread and then infected more venerable people when returning home. How this would extrapolate to the current outcome I’m not sure.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#330

Post by kkwteh »

ouaiueoaieaeoiu wrote: post #295
leftyted wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like the government is correctly rationing tests. My sense is that the vast majority of the healthy population shouldn't get tested even if they might have the virus because the infrastructure doesn't support widespread testing (anywhere -- as far as I know). They should act as if they have the virus and stay home, rest, drink a lot of water, and take NSAIDs if the pain gets out of hand. I've been sick since l…

Note, France is warning against NSAIDs specifically for COVID-19. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammat...

In the Guardian article in the parent comment, the warning says that any anti-inflammatory drug may be a risk, not just NSAIDs. They include cortisone as an example of a drug to avoid, which is a non-NSAID anti-inflammatory.
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